10/1/2025 The Market Perspective

Welcome to our new site at blogspot. 

 

 

the blue dots are the parabolic stop and reverse method develop[ed by Wells Wilder. Blue dots above price indicate a sell signal. Price is very close to breaking above the signal. PAR SAR is good to identify Elliott Waves. 

  Here the indicator had us long from t April low and one can see the distance between the indicator and price is narrowing.  Unless the DOW makes another high tomorrow we should be topping now.

 

Bonds

 

 Interest rates have fallen the last few days but the ten year remains well above the  3.98% level.  Breaking below that might challenge the  3.88% level, in that case our bet that rates are rising is incorrect.  The Supreme Court will not take the case of Lisa Cook until January so she is still at the FED till then. Again, Trump is mistaking the over night rate which the FED sets following the 2 year note in my opinion with the far more important longer rates, the ten year being a proxy for mortgage rates, the average mortgage lasts about 12 years. 

 

Silver

 

Silver has gone hyperbolic this means it looks like x squared rather than 2x. RSI is overdone at top as is PMO at bottom. Regret I missed getting onboard, silver  was not following gold and then went all in. I was in a meeting this week when the speaker asked why godl was going up. His answer was that the NVDA chips use gold.  The better answer is that social mood has turned positive to gold, which is why people buy anything. 

 

Social mood is trending negative in some circles. Democrats and Republicans blame each other for the looming shutdown. Mamdami looks to win the NY Mayor race.  French  government fails. Everywhere I look someone is planning a bigger than ever building.  Such events occur at or near the end of a mania like the one we are in now. Waldorf Astoria completes a 8 year $6B make over, only 30 of its 3200+ condos have sold. Washington DC plans a $3.8 B football stadium. Project Marvel in SA plans a new basketball and baseball park downtown where there is no place to park.   Social mood is not a crystal ball but more a windsock of what may happen. There is always a mix of mood. Mood for stocks is wild but elsewhere, more  horror movies than I can  count for example, mood is trending negative.

 

Gee this was very much like typepad, noproblem adding graphs or the link for Marvel. I hope readers will enjoy the new site.