10/12/2025
The author looks at the idea that consumer spending bolsters the economy. And he examine government and business spending. As a former CH 7 Bankruptcy trustee, I would suggest he consider consumer debt.
Fed Reserve Bank of NY Takes a Loook And of course it is higher than ever
The Mortgage debt at least has the house as collateral. But the consumer debt has no collateral, which is why credit card rates are so high, there are lots of defaults.
The labor market is weakening no matter how many Trump fires at the BLS.
My view is that the stock market peaked between Oct 3 and 7. the Friday slide is the start of a much larger sell off. Markets have not returned to the 200 month moving average since 2009. For the DOW that is 23,354, about half where the DOW now trades.
Bob Farrell was a technical analyst at Merrill in the 1970s. His first of Ten Rulesis that markets return to the mean which is what I am suggesting. Trump has repeated the mistakes of Herbert Hoover. At least he cannot run for re elction, but his party may suffer in a big way if I am even half right.
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