Stocks Trending Down

 10/16/2025

 The DOW dropped 800 points in the last two days. I am feeling better about my bearish prediction . Here is my weekly newspaper column.

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Dennis Elam

Thursday after market close 10/16/2025

Word Count 379

Stocks Trending to the Downside

My contention has been that the overall stock market topped between October 3 and 7. In the last two days the DOW Industrials have fallen an intra-day 800 points. The tech heavy NASD 100 holds on but also appears to have started a downtrend.

The volatility index is an indication of just that, increased volatility. The ticker symbol is VIX. The VIX has jumped from 16.5 October 10 to 25.31 on the Thursday afternoon market close. This is an indication that the direction of the market has changed to the downside. The weekly VIX chart, far more important than the daily, has clearly turned up. This means higher volatility and more downside action ahead.

The financial media, financed by mutual fund companies, will say buy the dip or an inevitable correction. I don’t think so.  Elliott Wave Theory suggests this is a top of major significance. This would be akin to 1929, the dot.com top of 2000 or the subprime top of Fall 2007.  You read it here first.

This column has held that crude oil is in a downtrend. This past week it broke through the $60 level to the downside. It came off the daily low of $57.26 to close at $57.46. But the high for the day was $59.11. The price fell 81 cents from the close on Wednesday. How does the market feel about this?

Consider the major energy service stocks. Halliburton dropped 2.55% today to $21.82. In June 20245 HAL trade for 3.1x book value. Today it trades for 1.98x book value. Patterson PTEN is a major service provider in Texas. PTEN is trading at 62% of book value. This is a literal fire sale, if PTEN were selling of its assets.

Among producers, Apache APA has dropped from $25.50 two weeks ago to $23.00 today. Even Exxon Mobil XOM has dropped below all four of its 200-day moving average.

Gold and silver are on a tear to the upside. This should last into next week.

The ten-year Treasury Note yield dropped to 3.97% today. The previous low was 3.88%. It appears that the previous low will be taken out. Wall Street is near certain of another FED cut.

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