Stocks and Oil Stall

 10/10/2025

Stocks and Oil Stall

 

On October 2 crude oil made a low of $60.49. It then rallied for four days to $62.92.  But the rally was short-lived. Thursday and Friday crude gave back the gains. It trades early Friday at $60.69.  The low for the year was May 2 when crude briefly touched $55. 

OPEC seems bent on expanding production. That is not the case for the US.  For now we need to watch the October 2 low of $60.49. A break of that level will open the door to lower prices.

Natural gas has followed the same pattern. The low of September 22 was $3.06.  A multi-day rally took it to just above $3.50. In three days it has fallen back to $3.19. the same analysis applies. Watch for a break of $3.06.

CPS Energy in San Antonio is acquiring natural gas fired refineries.  As Roe Patterson of Marauder Capital said last week, natural gas is the best bet for America.  Nuclear is going to take too long to re-create.

Hope flourishes for energy good sense in Europe. Rules on electric vehicle use are being pulled back. There was even a protest for holding a nuclear plant open rather than closing it.  Apparently, Europeans are tired of low growth and high electric bills.

The Transportation index topped in November 2025 above 17,500. It fell into April of this year at 12,500. It has now returned to 16,500, back off t 15,558 today.  Charles Dow’s Theory required the Transports to affirm the Industrials advance. It has not done so. Industrials traded above 47,000 last week. It has now fallen below the 50 and 87 day moving averages on the hourly chart. Time wise Markets often unfold in a Fibonacci number sequence, named for the Italian mathematician who first noticed the number series. A Fibonacci multiple of he 1966 market top at 995, give s projection of 46,880. That number has been hit. This suggests a possible market top echoing both 1959 and 1966. I realize amid all the celebration of new highs this may sound odd. But market tops occur amid wild enthusiasm.  My take is that we will see lower prices ahead.

The ten-year note yield has fallen back to 4.1%.  This explains the lower mortgage rates as mortgages track the note. I expected higher long rates but the market is inclusive. More pattern development is necessary for a reliable conclusion.

Social mood towards building bigger venues is simply wild here in San Antonio. Project Marvel now totals over $1 Billion.  This will include a basketball and baseball stadium as well as expanded convention center.  The same thinking prevailed in 1929 when the first ever 30 story downtown building was completed. It too was to be the first step of a much larger project. It did not turn out that way. Will history repeat?  Stay tuned for the outcome.

Professorelam.blogspot.com