10/30/2025
Uponnannouncing bigger investment in AI, Wall Street bails. I sense that the market is having its dot.com realization. All this investment in AI is not producing profits for the time being. This suggests, as usual, firms blundering into unknown territory in the latest spending fad.
Meanwhile in today's WSJ , more signs of slowdown.
NVDA took a mere 66 days to move from 2T to 3T
78 days from 4T to 5T
This is a mania on steroids. It is larger than many tech firms and yes it makes lots of money but then so does META, see above. If META is punished for over investing in AI, what about the source that makes th3e chips which power AI?
Today's WSJ
Auto repos are up 12 % year over year.
GM financial has built an 800 seat call center here in SA
to convince buyers to keep makin payments on SUVs and PUs they cannot afford.
Justifiable homicide, claimed sself defense, up 59% from 2019 to 2024.
Trump l plans a mid term convention in Vegas where he wond, Dems did this in 197.0s and 1980s
Page A 9 Consumers make every penny count, diluting clorox, selling on E Bay, PG saled down 2%
Alphabet and MSF sales soar
NVDA blacwell chip a big it pushing it to 5T mkt cap
There is always a mix of mood. Here we see emering signs of negative mood, repo increase, and continuing signe of sucess, Alphabet and NVDA.
Here is the SPX advance decline line note this is unweighted, each stock counts the same.
Cable business news and the media would have you believe SPX is soaring, not is is not overall, it is at best moving sideways.
NYSE New Highs New Lows,
Notice the progression to lower lows, the NYSE is unweighted.
And now the important stuff. The Bond Market
Big deal FED cuts 1/4 point, Guess what ten year rates did today, they rose.
Time to start adding TBF.
MY short silver position has dropped back but has not fully corrected, I have a buy at 12.40
I hope readers are enjoying our new format, let me know, anything else you wold like to see covered?
William Devane asks in his gold tv ad, are you safe? His answer is gold.
How much money do you have in stocks, a million say? Do you have any insurance against a big drop
A Sept 18 2026 6800 put costs $34,800, That premius is 3.5% of one million. It will be in the money at 6452. An inexpensive way to hedge but of course one contract will not hedge a million dollars worth of stock. How much does it cover?
The contract covers 100 x spx value or $682,233 at today'sclose, so it vover 68% of a million. If you desire to continue to hold the stocks this is a hedge, it is not a bet.
Learn more CBOE Options Forum
I am advocating hedging for those of you committed to the market, not betting.
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