10/7/2025
The DOW actually closed down on the day. It had a 318 pint intra day range.
Okay it did the same think Sept 23 and came back. But the market is way overbought and powered by tech stocks not the entirety of the market. The markets focus on just a few stocks at any final top.
Dow Theory holds that the Transports must confirm the Industrials. The Transports have not done that. In like manner, the Industrials are not confirming the SPX or NDX at new highs.
Ten Year Yields
On the last pullback, the ten year yield bottomed at a higher level than th eOct 3 low. Yields are rising, Jerome are you paying attention, and you too Trump. Purchase of TBF is warranted, a bear bond fund.
All sorts of reason are advanced for the gold and silver rally. The actual reason is that social mood is positive toward metals just as it was in 1980. Then sliver topped just over $50 as a result of the Hunt Brothers cornering the market. They bough massive contracts of silver, Instead of closing them out prior to expiration, they demanded delivery They held more contacts that there was silver in the COMEX warehouse. The exchange was not amused. Rules changed and the brothers were out.
In 10980 sivler at $50 was far more expensive than $50 today. I expect a large pullback but much high er prices surely lie ahead if we are to surpass 1980 $50 silver on an inflation adjusted basis.
Crude Oil
Crude is testing its low and advancing. This should throw a wrench in the crowd expecting further FED cuts. Much higher prices could result.
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