Friday 10/24/2025''
I have about $24,000 in bear stock funds. Yet they declined a mere $186 today. Is the rally about done?
Most of the available charts on 1929 start Oct 1929 and continue to the 1932 bottom, 90% lower. Here is a long term chart which does show the steepness of the 1920s rally
Parabolic rallies almost always give the rise back in the subsequent fall, that happened with it taking from 1922 to 1929 to get to the top but just short of three years to give it all back. Stocks fall 7x as fast as they rise.
Now here we are today.
Notice the momentum indicators RSI and PMO top and bottom. Both peaked in 2021, indicating the top of a third wave, the third is always the strongest. The fourth bottomed in Oct 2022, again notice the collapse in RSI and PMO. Now the DOW has rallied to a new high. RSI and PMO are not as strong as in 2022. That is the case for fifth waves. I could go on in more detail but evidence mounts this rally is closer to an end.
It maybe that if we believe oil is going to rally we need to buy oil, USO fund, not energy or service companies. We shall see this next week.
Gold and silver have topped. Reasonable targets are 3300 for gold and 40 for silver.
Tucker Carlson is going into the business of selling you gold now that gold has rallied 171% in the last three years. Recall when the Seinfeld crew wanted to be paid in GE stock in 1999? That was the top for GE, history sure does rhyme as Mark Twain said.
Let me know what you think of our market coverage in blogspot as well as other posts for students and readers alike
dennis.elam@att.net
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