Fox Business Jettisons Maria

 Tuesday 11/3/2026

Fox Bisiness has had a line up of personalities, Maria Bartiromo, Stuart Varney, a panel, Charles Payne,and Liz Clayman. Maria got the same boot as Bill O' reiley, Tucker Carlson, Mike Huckabee.

 Her comments on the voting machines cost Fox millions and then there was something else and wham she was gone. That's a shame. Maria was a self made woman, brought here as an immigrant from Italy ran the cash register at the family restaurant. Started cold on  CNBC as  a NYSE floor reporter. Endured some kidding as the Money Honey but earned her spurs and got the morning spot at FOX business. '

Married to the son of the guy who started a mutual fund family, now lives in a five story condo in NYC so she is OK. But I think fans will miss her as someone who knew what she was doing.  

CNBC has always had a team approach early morning so Fox has decided the same.

But frankly, it is just four people sitting around talking, yes all shows are that but there is not a focus nor a specialty for each of the group. Fox has lost viewers on its regular news network as enthusiasm for Trump has waned yet Fox continues to give him full speaking coverage. 

The lady who was second to Maria has disappeared, sorry did not know her name. I don't see this getting much traction, the new team that is, we'll see.  

Nov 3 All Quiet on the WS Front

11/3/226

I suggested keeping the powder dry until election results are in, looks like the street agreed with me , not much to report.

 TLT fell a half point and TBF came back to my entry point at 25.55. 

A while back I drew this blue trend line and suggested yields would fall to the tendline and then bounce. Here I extend the line an whadday know, it did just that. 

Ten Year Treasury Yield 

 

TBF Bear Bond Fund

 Bottoming action is apparent with RSI and PMO at an extreme. 

While this may seem a boring trade, over the next year things will be more exciting. 

After this coming correction, TBF up, TLT down, I expect to see a lengthy up move in TLT.

Meanwhile the tech stocks  are all over the charts. The drop in oil was unexpected but yet another  random Donald quote is not. Now news has it that the US will broker Russia Ukraine talks next week. I doubt Zelensky and Putin have much common ground.

Much more tomorrow. 

 

About the Expected Tech Bounce...

 Monday 11/2/2026N

Note to readers. I realize the charts spill on to the side bar when first posted but using  a smaller size makes them hard to read. A day later and the presentation is OK. 

 

NDX - No recovery here at all, see further examples below for why this is the case. that no bounce occurred after the Friday rout in tech speaks to how weak this sector has quickly, yes quickly, become. 

 

Spencer Jakob of Heard on the Street WSJ pointed out that ORCL was one of the most leveraged 

hyperscalers 

 so watch it for signs of weakness, yep here it is  Below the charts of ORCL and CRWV look remarkably similar. 

Core Weave was a crypto company but changed its name when AI became more trendy. 

Below is the picture since CRWV inception. it has given back near all the gains it squeezed out of the name change.  Its bonds would be opriced far less but these are short maturities due in the early 2030s.

 

 Intel INTC has been around for many years but it getting beaten up like CRWV and ORCL

My description of a Tech Wreck was no exaggeration. 

 

Meanwhile Trump claims an Iran war deal is in sight, how many times have we heard that, but oil tumbled in response. He has claimed right up to the election tomorrow gasoline prices will fall, apparently this is literally a last ditch attempt to make that happen. 

Loose lips sink oil price. 

 All interesting but where do we go from here ie what to do/

Short the DOW with HDGE and SPX with SH

 Here is an update of an earlier posted chart, the wave 2 top is in the next move in INDU will be  down but we may not qute be to a bottom yet. 

HDGE

 SPX

SPX and INDU have rallied in a down trend. The down trend is most likely to resume. 

Today the INDU DOW was up over 500 points only to wilt to  213, see openning table. That is less than half where it was. This is the sort of weakness one sees in bear markets, they cannot sustain a rally.

In sell offs, there is a flight to quality and that is bonds. Our TLT advanced again today with TBF off a smidge. 

See our longer term comment on bonds this weekend. With stocks selling there will be a move to bonds. First a correction from the recent run up. I am less enthusiastic about betting on that sell-off given the weakness today esp. in NDX and the halving of INDU. 

TLT long dated bond fund

 Is there a bit more left here, tomorrow will tell. Then a sel off before a longer rally begins. 

Today was a good example of why one should wait to the end of the day to comment as stocks pulled back from earlier highs. 

One more thing  tomorrow is the mid term election and results. It might make the most sense to wait for new orders until Wednesday or Thursday when the dust will begin to settle on the election. 

More tomorrow, let us know your comments and input. 

dennis.elam@att.net 

NDX Comment 11/1

 11/1/2026

 

NDX hourly this past month 

 Magnificent 7 Hourly

 SOX Semi Conductor

 These hourly charts are what we mean by Tech Wreck. All gapped down at the open Friday. There was a bit of buy back at the end of the day.

It would seem that a bounce to the upside is in order. Billions of market cap were lost in total with the tech stocks. Anthropic IPO is scheduled for later this month. No doubt  the bankers will be talking the deal up. Next update tomorrow. Thanks for reading my blog.  

Telescoping the Bond Market. a Long to Short term Perspective

 10/1/2026

 By telescoping, we will take a very long term view of the bond market, and then progresively shorter views. The idea is to cement a long and shorter term trading view.

1942 to Present

 

This chart is courtesy of my friends at Elliott Wave Intl. This is a chart of bond yields or interest rates. 

The ten year Treasury note yields are graphed. 

Rates bottomed   in 1942 as US involvement in WW II began. The need for massive borrowing to fiance the war effort sent rates higher. The longer the cycle persisted the higher rates became. In the final years leading to the topin 1981, the chart becomes vertical or parabolic. Gerald Ford wore his WIN whip inflation now button but it did no good. rates finally peaked at   15.84% which did not work for a functioning country. One doees see  rates exceeding this in basket case countries like Argentina and Zimbabwe. There is always a qualitative solution to a technical peak and it was in the form of Paul VOlcker raising rates to this unsustainable level.

 Parabolic rises reverse in mirror fashion, and that is what happened. Rates auuickly  unwound from double digits to single. Eventually the FED would try stimulating the economy with 'quantitative easing.' This took rates too low, .51% by March 2020. Note this is a near exact39 years from  1981.

The cycle has now reversed. The ten year note just past 5% and has backed off, note the confluence of the chart at far right. 

In the very long term there is nothing Trump or Marsh or the tooth fairy can do to prevent this cycle from climbing as it did in 1942. Rates are already 210x their March 2020 low. 

It is said a bear market requires those who did not experience the last one. Those seeking  mortgages were not around for 14% mortgages in 1980. Hence they believe 7% is a first time ever event, it is not as the chart shows. 

TLT Monthly 

Bond prices move opposite bond yields. Here is a chart of long dated bonds, TLT the oft cited ETF for long term prices. This is handy in that TLT on stockcharts can be graphed in intra day pricesl 

TLT peaked at the bottom of yields shown on the previous chart. Since then it traced out five waves down to late 202 Since then it has corrected sideway for two long years. the nest big move will be an  increase in prices sending the chart up. But first...

TLT Daily 

 

TLT has rallied lowering rates. IT is tropping now. I thought it had topped given the big down move Wed on the FED stand pat announcement. It Looks as though it may have one last pop to finish this fractal cycle. 

At that point we want to be long TBF or TBT. These are funds which increase as bond pricds fall. 

TBF  2 bars per day 195 minute bars, 2 month chart

this is what I mean by telescoping, we are using shorter and shorter time frames to develop a trading strategy. 

 

 Momentum idicatros include Relative Strength  RSI at top and PMO at bottom. Never mind how they are calculated, like any good black box, they work. If TBF falls a bit in price fine I can buy more at a lower price. 

I anticipate a move up in yields and down in price. So TLT falls and TBF rises. 

After that interlude, I am guessing a month,  expect a recovery in price lasting some time.  This will lower yields. Trump will take credit though he had literally nothing to do with it. 

Comment in the comment section or send questions to dennis.elam@att.net.  

Bond Market Basics

 10/1/2026

Just to make it convenient this is a reprint of my 10/28 post on the bond market.

Here we discuss trading hours and details of the primary dealers.

Click here to learn about the Govt Primary Dealer System

 Wed 10/28/2026

As predicted no change 

OK it is 23:471 CST so the day is not over 

Bond Market Trading Hours

Understanding the trading hours for bonds is essential.

• Core Trading Hours — The U.S. bond market operates from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM ET, equivalent to 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM CT.
• Early Closures — On specific holidays, the bond market may close early, typically at 2:00 PM ET (1:00 PM CT).
• Electronic Trading — For highly liquid instruments like U.S. Treasuries, trading can occur for up to 22 hours a day on electronic platforms, pausing briefly around 5:00 PM ET.
• Auction Times — The NYSE conducts bond auctions at 4:00 AM and 8:00 AM ET, with continuous trading following these auctions.

_________________

I sold my TLT around 81.55 yesterday,  here is the result of today's announcement. By the way

Oct 27 - Pct 8 is 19 days and $400 round numbers.  again rounding350 days in a year divided by 20 trading days is 17.5 times that  20 days happens in 350 days so 400/7700 = 5% times 17.5 is 89% return. That would be ideal if the market never stood still as it often does and remember there are holidays and interruptions in trading when things slow so this remains a very idealized number. But it does show that low risk small trades can add up.

Or buying 1,000 shares would have made $4,000.  

 This is what I call a dual chart, OHLC is TLT and purple line is TBF. This is the result I expected and said so which is why I sold TLT yesterday. My below market bid di not happen for TBF, nothing lost and remember that. I did buy a few hundred TBF shares today at the market. 

I will start tracking our results on trading TLT, TBF, and TBT. TBT is a 2x ETF which is leveraged twice that of TLT. 

Date	B/S	Issue		Price	Gain
2026					(Loss)
30-Sep	B	TLT		77.71
27-Oct	S	TLT		81.55	384
6-Oct		TLT	Div		31.16

 

Here is the flip side of price which is yield. RSI top and PMO bottom have jumped, the turn appears to be in. If not we buy TBF cheaper tomorrow. To me this makes a lot more sense than guessing which Ai stock will pop next. 

 

So the market disagrees with the FED, the two dissents, both women by the way, were for higher rates. 

Nothing much to report on stocks. Still no date for the Anthropic IPO. See the article in today's WSJ on how the firm is massaging their numbers to diminish the large losses of the last two years. 

The Nov 2 election may be the next big news event for the stock market.  A DEM take of the House seems certain Senate we shall see. Trump is scurrying around TX trying to boost support for his terrible choice of Paxton 

Why my focus on bonds?  OK the four points in less than a month on TLT is not a big deal. But if we can nail consistent results like that month in month out, there will be larger moves. This does not require reading the AI tea leaves.  Rather dual charts, ratio charts and regular charts simply tracking social mood toward inerest rates. TBF trades at one third or so the price of TLT but easier to buy more at a lower price.  

Not exciting enough, well here are the margin requirments on govt bonds

 

The margin requirement for government bonds typically involves a minimum of 10% of the market value for investment-grade bonds. For non-investment grade bonds, the requirement is the greater of 20% of market value or 7% of face value.

Margin Requirements for Government Bonds

Understanding margin requirements is crucial for bond investors.

• Investment-Grade Bonds — The regulatory minimum margin is 10% of market value.
• Non-Investment Grade Bonds — The minimum margin is either 20% of market value or 7% of face value.
• Purpose of Margin — Margin requirements help mitigate risk for lenders and investors.
• Market Fluctuations — Margin requirements can change based on market conditions and bond ratings

One can buy $1M worth of thirty year T bonds for $100,000 margin. The AI comment is incorrect. this margin does not mitigate risk, it increases it. The reson for the low margin is so the 28 primary govt bond dealers can afford the large amounts they buy from the govt during the bond auctions.

 

As of now, there are 24 primary dealers of U.S. government bonds. These institutions are authorized to bid on newly issued government securities and play a crucial role in the financial markets.

Overview of Primary Dealers

Primary dealers are essential to the U.S. government bond market.

S

• Definition — Primary dealers are the only entities allowed to bid on newly issued government securities.
• Role — They underwrite new government debt and act as market makers for the Federal Reserve.
• Auction Participation — Each dealer is expected to bid their pro-rata share of each auction, calculated based on the total amount auctioned.
• Current List — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York maintains a list of the current primary dealers.

 See there is a lot to learn here at the blog!

What are primary dealer requirments and what is their function? 

 

76 Year Old Janitor Gets School Named for Herself

 Friday 10/30/2026

She got the news rolling out a red carpet with her name on it. 

This is a great ethics lesson. The district recognized someone who is normally overlooked, nice.   Jsut in time for Christmas.