6/29/2026
Cisco CAT Google and Amazon pushed the DOW higher today. Tech rules once again. Honeywell dropped 6% as it spun off its HONA aerospace division.
August crude oil jumped 1.52 to close over 70 at 70.75. Chevron dropped another 2.59, the bottom is not in yet. Scan any headlines and Iran is dragging all this along as usual. One day does not change a trend but let's keep an eye out.
I undergo a significant medical procedure tomorrow so it may be a day or two before another update.
Weekend 6/27/2026
SPX Hourly
NDX is the same picture but the important juncture for the markets./
The guys who run the DOW components are always trying to goose the average with the latest hot stock. In this case they take out Verizon June 29 and add Alphabet, ie Google. that makes five of the Mag 7 in the DOW average. As always looks like they are late to the party. Here is the Churchill MAG 7 ETF. If anything more Mag 7 will pull the DOW lower.
Social Mood
Six British PMs in less thana decade
6/27/2026
While everyone is agog at tech, let's check the out of favor sector, energy. Yes oil soared and has dropped back below 70, as I have said the last week, it is hard to see why, see Trump threatens to attack Iran again, etc. Spencer Jakab WSJ Herd on the Street, has been suggesting this sector looks good all arond.
XOM CVX BP SHEL all look the same, trying to make a bottom the last couple few days recording agaps down on the open a possible sign of exhaustion selling. APA is smaller but also a good candidate. XOM at two months to better show the selling gaps
refiners are councing, VLO is expensive, how about DINO instead? Understand refiners care not if oil is high or low, they make money on the spread between the cost of oil and the wholesale price of the refined product.
PMO has not turned up on either so not time to buy yet.
Energy service gets hammered in an oil sell off, but the chart looks like the major oils.
Halliburton HAL it could wander down to the red 200 day MA
6/26/2026
Oil Drops, Why?
"A few hours ago, without prior notice or coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, certain authorities announced a new route for vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz," it said. It warned that "any violating vessels will be dealt with accordingly," without elaborating.
Iran struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, forcing a pause on evacuations of stranded seafarers and demonstrating its continued ability to restrict the critical waterway, despite the agreement reached last week with the United States.
A US official told CNN the vessel was attacked by an Iranian drone, but did not provide further details.
Yahoo News
This Friday morning West Texas Intermediate is trading at $68.68, down about $3 from yesterday. I began with the latest from Hormuz. It is hard to understand the continuing drop in the price of oil when Iran is literally attacking ships attempting to transit the Strait.
The administration has trotted out VP Vance to assure us that he has negotiated a great deal. Iran will get money, not from us, to cover their damages. And they do not get the money unless they ‘behave.’ I suspect Iran will spend the money as always and go right back to terrorist business as usual.
President Trump is angry that retail gasoline prices have not immediately declined. He seems to forget refiners must work through the $85+ oil accumulated during the fighting. Only then will they get to replace with now lower priced oil
Much has been written about the new FED Chair Kevin Marsh. Not much has been written about the actual bond market. Since early March the two-year Treasury note yield has climbed from 3.40 to 4.14%. This is a 22% increase in four months. One inflation measure tops4%. It wil be difficult to convince a majority of governors a rate decrease is necessary.
A famous Wall Street adage is ‘after May go away.’ That describes where we are now. The DOW briefly jumped above 52,50 yesterday only to quickly return to 52,000. The markets have been wild for semi-conductor chip makers of all kinds. The SOX index of those firms has soared since April from 8,00 to 13,300. All the Magnificent Seven stocks are down in June.
Meanwhile back in the real world, here are two stocks to watch. Amazon is erasing its April to May rise. It has fallen from 280 to 232. Wal Mart has done that and more, gapping down in May. The fall is from 134 to 117. Both firms are reflective of the basic retail economy and both make scads of money. Why the decline? Is the market seeing some buying weakness ahead?
6/25/2026
What gives?
Two stocks Micron MU up 15.74% and Applied Materials AMAT up13.44%
rallied all things tech NDX and SOX
The DOW dropped 798 points high to low today, closing yo 71 from yesterday
so a couple of stocks can move an entire average once again as I have noted many times.
No follow thru on the DOW
I have no opinion on the next six months of the market
A few days ago I showed thousands of demonstrators opposing .trump's son in law's planned resort on the country's only island, negative mood.
Well, now Trump has it out with Republican Senators
Dem Socialists oust Traditional Dems
Negative mood is building
6/24/2026
Silver
6/23/2026
The same is true for the semi-conductor trade in SOX. It looks a low like the NDX graph because both contain many of the same securities.
WMT finally jumped 2% but still has that large gap overhead.
Vance and Company are allowing Iran to sell oil so oil price is a smidge lower. Now Hegseth wants $80 B to recover what they blew up, literally, in Iran. How are we really much better off? Now Iran talks of insurance and fees to pass Hormuz. Follow on https://understandingwar.org/.
6/23/2026
Regan said the worst phrase was
We're from the government and we are here to help/
to that I would add
We must do something now.
Which is what Bill Cassidy is vowing to do at DOW 50,00.
6/23/2026
Morgan Stanley MS -0.08%decrease; red down pointing triangle is considering plans for a $1.33 billion operational hub in Dallas, a sign that the bank is following its Wall Street peers to the Lone Star State.
The bank’s plans would involve an investment of about $684.2 million in the proposed 708,000 square foot building at 2401 McKinney Avenue, with the developer investing another $650 million, according to a draft resolution in front of Dallas’s city council.
While the permanent office is being constructed, Morgan Stanley would invest around $96.9 million in a temporary office with a 52-month lease at 1445 Ross Avenue, according to the plan. The bank would move into its permanent home in 2031.
Morgan Stanley’s Texas expansion would bring 3,800 new jobs to Dallas through 2035 and could add another 1,000 by the end of 2039, according to the resolution.
The resolution would authorize Dallas to grant Morgan Stanley a 90% tax abatement on the added value of the project and up to $18.5 million in economic-development grants. It is slated for consideration by the city council on Wednesday.
The bank has been coordinating with city staffers for months as it considered sites for an expansion, according to the resolution.
Morgan Stanley and Trammell Crow, the owner of the McKinney Avenue site, declined to comment.
If the project is carried out, Morgan Stanley would join a host of other financial institutions to establish or expand operations in Texas over the last several years, such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Charles Schwab Corp. Other major companies—including Exxon Mobil and Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla—have or are currently relocating to the state.
Morgan Stanley is also considering pursuing the project in Alpharetta, Ga., according to the resolution.
Corrections & Amplifications
Morgan
Stanley expects its possible Dallas operational hub to support 3,800
jobs through 2035, after it coordinated with city staffers for months
while considering sites for its expansion. An earlier version of this
article incorrectly said the company coordinated with Dallas staffers to
identify a site in the city for a headquarters that would support 2,200
new jobs through 2035. (Corrected on June 22)
6/23/2026
6/22/2026
Let's start with the SPX, the best and broadest index of major stocks
A rally this morning did not hold and the SPX closed lsightly down. It has filled the gap from the June 15-18. It is also below the early June high.
I suggested following AMZN thinking it might be a buy. No it is a warning.
Jaren Kushner and wife Ivanka Trump are called oligarchs in the largest demonstration since the fall of Communism. Read the link, the idea was to build two resorts on Albania's only island, see above, it is not being well received. Let's see if more negative sentiment begins to build world wide.
A third independent horror movie is on deck. Horror movies reflect negative emotion and are linked to the 1930s Depression. The first modern horror movies appeared then, Frankenstein et al. Exorcist in 1973 appeared amid the 50% drop in the DOW 1973-74.
2 Year Yield 3.40 to 4.24 is a 25% jump in five months, hello Mr. Marsh.
6/20/2026
As wiht energy PMO has not turned up yet, let's watch.
6/20/2026
Out title is lifted from a long ago Alan Abelson column in Barron's.
Monday Trump said ships start your engines.
Same day, the CEOs of Exxon and Chevron warned of a suply shortage.
Talks have stalled again
J D Vance disagrees and doubts WSJ article
Iran wants fighting, ie killing of Hamas in Lebanon to stop, Israel does not see it that way, so here we are?
OK who do you believe ?
My suggestion is to watch what the markets do not what the politicians say
he latest Clarkson data shows that current price of a newbuild of a very large crude carrier (VLCC) is $128 million. This means that the cost of building a new VLCC is about 50% higher now than it was in 2020.
Do you want to sail your $158 M tanker thru Hormuz because J D Vance says it is OK? No you don't.
Consider Aoache APA
Notice the dividend is 3%
XLE is a good way to play the majors which is why it has not dropped as far as the smaller firms.
6/20/2026
a ratio chart compares to markets to one another. In this case the NDX is the numerator. The conservative UTIL Utility index is the denominator. When the ratio is rising investors prefer risk on techstocks to far more conservative utility stocks.
In today's weekend WSJ schwab announces win or lose options with the CBOE
A potential “Plus Zone” mechanism may provide traders with partial returns when predictions come close to the actual outcome
Actually all options are win or lose.
writers win if the option stays below the strike price buyers lose all.
Buyers win if the options exceeds the strike price ,writers lose their premium and have to provide the winning difference.
But this is a top of the market Prediction market taken right to the CBOE floor. What next at DOW 52,000?
6/20/2026
TYRE, Lebanon (AP) — Iran dealt two quick blows to the interim agreement with the United States on Saturday, angered by Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon, saying it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again and announcing that while its negotiators are going to Switzerland for talks, not much is likely to happen there.
Iran, US teams head to Switzerland
At least they agree on one thing, beter to hang out in Switzerland than Pakistan!, I agree.
This follows the pattern of claiming a deal early in the week only to see it blow up by the Next Friday.
This is more in line with what most observers have been sauying from General Jack Keane to Senator Bill Cassidy.
6/18/2026
An Oil Price Drop
“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the Iran deal, with Rubio by his side.
“If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD,” he joked. “You better be careful, JD!”
News wires Yesterday
Memo to J D Vance, VP, check with Roger Stone and Rudy Guiliani before proceeding further.
It is still working. Trump’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. As I write Thursday morning July WTIC is down $2.60 to $747.21. More important from the Mid-term election perspective is the price of gasoline. July gasoline futures hav dropped from the July high of $3.60 to $2.85 today. That is the futures price without any taxes at the pump.
The entire energy service sector has been slammed. Halliburton in the same time frame dropped from $43. To $34.71, down 4.2% today.
The energy market is clearly ignoring the comments of Exxon and Chevron CEOs Monday. Mike Wirth, Chevron CEO, commented that ‘a supply crunch will soon manifest itself around the world.’ Neil Chapman, Exxon CEO comments, ‘ US is approaching unheard of inventory levels.’ By that they both mean low levels. The Hormuz supply crunch has taught countries, no matter who is in charge, that a supply reserve is an absolutes necessity. Pakistan, for example, had not reeseerves. The CEOs are making the point that any supply released via Hormuz will quickly disappear into waiting tanks to establish a future reserve. The Trump administration has shrugged off these warnings. I will go with the CEOs, it is going to take a while for their projections to take effect.
The DOW tumbled 888 points from high to low yesterday. The sell-off grew more intense as it was clear the FED was not cutting interest rates. Why the market thought it might puzzles me. Wholesale pricds grew 4.2% this past year, well above the FED 2% target.
Tech stocks stil reign supreme with the SOX semi-conductor index up again today.
The DOW Theory has spoken and there is not confirmation. The Transportation Index topped in April, unconfirmed by a new high in the Industrial index. The Industrial Index soared to a new high this month. The Transportation Index topped at a lower than April level and headed down. Why would an industry, Transports, which depends on energy prices, fall amid falling oil prices. Apparently the Transportation Index agrees with the CEOs, trouble ahead.
Gold and silver have swooned. Silver is down from its May high of $90 to $66.25.
6/17/2026
rump cast some uncertainty on whether the signing would happen as planned. Asked how confident he was that the ceremony would take place, Trump remarked on the unpredictability of deals.
"You never know with deals, do you? But you're going to find out pretty soon," he said.
______________
This is the same guy who said Monday, ships start your engines. I have quoted the CEOs of Exxon and Chevron saying trouble lay ahead but the markets and admin shrugges that off.
For unbiased reporting I can recommend the Institute for the Study of War
https://understandingwar.org/
It Chairman is Ret General Jack Keane, 4 star, read his resume here, it reads like someone out of a Tom Clancy novel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane
Monday night, General Keane is a frequent observer on Fox News, he could not believe the Iran deal, now here we are, I have been amazed as regular readers are aware, that the markets bought in to this so readily
DOW
I introduced my FIN 3338 class to Dow theory. The Industrials and Transports must confirm one another in the same time frame. Neither did that below.
the Transports peaked first in April unconfirmed by the DOW. Transports declined and rallied to begin failing this week. DOW rallied to a new high, unconfirmed by the Transports< Now both are declining. I remarked how odd it was that Transports dropped on lower oil. But here we are.
Both DOW and Transports need a wekly close under the March low at far left on the chart below. Once that happens we can say with confidence the top is in. For now, hope for a top is renewed.
NDX
Friday is June 19 National Holiday and markets are closed.
Tomorrow may be a lot of position squaring ahead of the holiday weekend.
More comments this weekend.
Friday is also the debut of Toy Story 5. I will wait for the crowds to thin but look forward to this continuing series.
6/16/2026
Thanks MMM, VISA, JP MORGAN, CAT
As I observed days ago, if only a handful or one or two stocks can goose the price weighted DOW, this could go on for some time.
If oil was down to 76.56, why were the Transports down -157? ONly UPS, LUV and American Air were up out of all the Transports, what is gong on here?
OK it's the hourly chart but DOW is finally looking toppy but that is short term. DOW has hit new highs unconfirmed by other equity averages.
NDX
This is an odd chart pattern. A double top with gaps from a U shaped bottom in between. PMO and RSI argue for a pullback but we would have to see a lot more to make anything of this.
Silver has rallied from 61 to 70, I expect more back and forth before a trend can be identified.
I continue to have no opinion on stock market direction longer term.
Long bond price rose a half point along with the DOW, rates have stayed higher longer than I expected.
More tomorrow after market close
Maxi Dresses are bearish not bullish
the famous Flapper Girls of the 1920s wore shorter than ever dresses, the styles were fisky as was the market. Yet here we see a maxi dress trend. And we just saw two horro movies do well at the box office again a bear market feature. Someone tell the markets.
6/16/2026
Good Morning! On this day in 1855, around 200 French colonists arrived at La Réunion, a short-lived socialist community on the banks of the Trinity River in Dallas. Financial insolvency caused the society to collapse within 18 months.
6/16/226 WSJ
This is the best summary I have ever read of Trump's foibles via his view or lack of the world.
_____________
The great Iran deal is here, President Trump has declared.
Big if true, as they say on the internet. The agreement was announced and, according to Vice President JD Vance, “digitally” signed on Sunday, but the formal signing is scheduled for Friday. The text hasn’t been released, and Iranian and American officials describe its contents differently. The underlying issue—Iran’s drive for regional hegemony and the American determination to block it—remains unresolved. If anything Tehran appears more eager than before to assert control over its neighbors and the flow of oil from the Middle East. Moreover, Israel, which has its own war proceeding in Lebanon, wasn’t part of the negotiations.
The fate of Mr. Trump’s latest attempt to contain the political and economic fallout from the Iran war without openly abandoning his key objectives will become clear with time. In the short term, Mr. Trump has agitated and distressed the pro-Israel, hawkish wing of his political coalition, while reassuring his isolationist and anti-Israel supporters by demonstrating some distance between Washington and Jerusalem. With the Group of Seven summit under way, the president has calmed financial markets, talked down the oil price and given the leaders of allied countries reason to hope for a quick peace.
Mr. Trump has also preserved his freedom of action. The unusual interval between the dramatic announcement of a deal and its scheduled formal signing gives the president the option of walking away from the agreement if political blowback is too severe. Meanwhile, he has again seized center stage in global politics as virtually every government and every private business in the world hangs on his every word.
The memorandum of understanding is, in other words, a thoroughly typical example of Mr. Trump’s second-term diplomacy. He is driving world events with an agreement that hasn’t been formally signed, whose specifics are unknown and whose prospects are at best murky.
Viewed from that angle, this deal exemplifies both the strengths and the weaknesses of Mr. Trump’s foreign policy. He is a master of political theater, producing, directing and starring in the greatest and most compelling spectacle of our time. Yet faced with opposition from serious and determined opponents, he often fails to achieve the kind of concrete results that mark the difference between a P.T. Barnum and an Otto von Bismarck.
Mr. Trump’s greatest strength is also his greatest weakness. The president is a cynic. Unencumbered by deep convictions and free from the constraints imposed by conventional morality or codes of honor, he can alter his tactics to the exigencies of the moment without hesitation or scruple. Cynicism has its uses. No statesman can succeed without a healthy dose of it. But like most potent drugs, it works best in small doses.
Mr. Trump comes by his cynicism honestly—his career in New York real estate, casinos and reality television led naturally to a dark view of human nature. As his political power grew and so many early critics and opponents swallowed their principles to kiss his ring, Mr. Trump’s intuitive belief that ideas and ideals don’t matter was powerfully reinforced.
But cynicism has limits. A cynic would have predicted that Britain would throw in the towel in 1940. Adolf Hitler held more cards than Winston Churchill did. But Churchill rejected Hitler’s peace offers and fought on to the end.
Mr. Trump’s disregard for ideas, ideals and people who claim to believe in them leads him to underestimate the strength and determination of people who mean what they say. His failure to understand the power of nationalism blinded him both to the resilience Ukraine has demonstrated in its conflict with Russia and to Vladimir Putin’s determination to pursue the struggle regardless of cost. Mr. Trump’s peacemaking efforts as a result have fallen flat.
Ideas matter in the Middle East as well. However perverse and depraved the ideas that animate the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah, they inspire the kind of conviction that motivates people to fight grimly on against the odds. In the end, Mr. Trump underestimated Iran’s determination and resilience and launched a war that is proving much costlier and harder to end than he’d expected.
Mr. Trump’s apparent contempt for ideals like democracy and the rule of law also costs him. Threats to conquer Greenland reduced his ability to call on allies in the Iran crisis. And the American failure to work more closely and effectively with pro-democracy Iranians gives the regime one less problem to worry about. Additionally, Mr. Trump’s penchant for aggressively unpredictable course changes weakens the confidence of allies and bolsters cohesion among his opponents.
Mr. Trump is a supreme and often supremely successful opportunist. But that quality alone won’t see him through the tests that lie ahead.
6/15/2026
The President says ships start your engines.
Oil Execs Worry Over Dwindling Stockpiles - Front Page Article today WSJ
Chevron and Exxon CEOs say, tanks are near empty and need to be filled.
-Supply crunch will soon manifest itself around the world -Mike Wirth CEO Chevron
US is approaching unheard of inventory levels - Neil Chapmnan CEO Exxon
It's going to get ugly - will VanLoh, quantum Capital
Trump administration shrugs off warnings
______________________
It is surely convenient that Trump claimed to have an Iran deal as he landed for the G 7 Meeting, amid a hot stock market and declining oil prices
On Fox Business, Charles Payne, host of FOX Business afternoon show, is quoted as saying this is the best time to invest, ever. Wel,l recently that would be summer 2002, dot.com bottom, or March 2009, sub prime bottom. Just pointing out that TV show hosts have taken the bait as well, not that they are ever bearish.
I still am in the no opinion camp on the markets at this time.
What are the markets actually saying?
SPx has weekly RSI top and PMO very toppy
A two year weekly chart shows just how steep the mania became in teh last two months for all things technical. PMO has not turned down on this weekly chart, so the party will continue for a while.
6/14/2026 5:25 PM CST
Once again, as I suggested, Trump has talked oil down and stocks up. Iran says the US was forced to sign a deal. Pundits suggest Iran will sign and continue doing what they have always done, that sounds reasonable.
6/14/2026
SOX and NDX both advanced the last two days, new highs are possible.
The DOW advanced due to Goldman and Morgan Chase up 2.6 and 2.3% Friday. The broad DOW did not advance as the number suggests, the price weighted nature of the DOW made it happen.
Trump insists an Iran deal will be signed but as others note, so when did that mean anything to Iran?
SPCX was a hit despite not making any money just as the dot.coms did the same.
The oil and stock markets have advanced on Iran promises a signed deal may make for yet another advance.
Gold and silver rallied.
Update Monday afternoon.
6/12/2026
The Biggest IPO Ever
The ticker symbol for the IPO SpaceX is SPCX. The Initial Public Offering IPO is priced at $135 per share. The issue plans to sell 555.6 million shares. Multiplying shares times price suggests the firm hopes to raise $75 billion. This would indicate a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion. That makes it the richest offering in history.
Investors who bought shares prior to the public trading are restricted in when and how much they can sell. Shares are being allocated throughout the day to avoid imbalances of selling and buying. Translation, the actual real market price may not be known until Monday. As I write early Friday morning, trading is taking place at the offer price of $135.
The overall frothy market has been compared to the dot.com boom of the late 1990s which peaked in March 2000. The dot.coms were an improvement over the catalog selling introduced by Sears in the 1890s. Rather than perusing a print catalog to order now buyers could peruse an electronic catalog on the internet, really not such a big change. The problem was that the dot.coms went public with no earnings.
One measure of value, or lack thereof, is the ratio of share price to sales per share. About 70 companies have the ratio of 10 times trailing revenue. SoaceX has priced its shares at 92x trailing revenue. Like the business of Space X, one might say this is priced out of this investing world.
Crude oil is trading at $87.06, down 79 cents from yesterday. I have lost count of how many times Trump has announced that an Iran deal is all but done. He announced that VP Vance would travel to Europe to sign the deal, possibly this weekend. Military strikes have been halted against Iran. Trump claims that Hormuz would open as soon as we sign. Further talking down the oil price, Trump promises Hormuz opens as soon as we sign, specifically, “soon, very soon.” Write this off to pre-midterm election jitters. The national $4.50 gasoline price average is a problem for Republicans up for re-election.
Not so fast. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has announced it has not reached a final conclusion. Iran says it will announce when it reaches a conclusion. Given the respective track records, I would go with the Iran Ministry.
The thirty-year bond is off a half point, raising interest rates. After steep sell-offs, gold and silver are bouncing to the upside today. It will take more than this to form a trade-able bottom in the metals.
6/11/2026
NDX bounced 3.29% today. Here is another reason to watch. See below
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, priced its long-awaited initial public offering at $135 per share for 555.6 million shares of Class A common stock, according to a prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.
this bounce is a wave two, the purpose of which is to reassure that the bull market is still alive. Maybe it is, we'll see tomorrow.
6/10/202
So much for the rally idea.
Here are some bear market rules.
Stocks fall 7 times as fast as they rise.
All surprises are to the downside.
Bear markets feature strong rallies, which fail.
Eventually various indexes will exhibit a stair step pattern to the down side, a rally followed by more selling.
________________
Space X IPO starts trading Friday. the firm is trying to raise $75B via 555 million shares.This is double the size of the 2019 Aramco offering seven years ago. 30% of the stock will go to retail investors. The WSJ today notes the endowment at Univ of North Carolina has 10% of its total in Space X, a firm with no earnings.
Space X will trade on the NASD shown below. I suggested watching from the sidelines this week, understand I already have some small short positions in those bear shares I have previously mentioned.
the March 23 low in silver was $61.01. The chart looks like that level will be taken out.
Again the carnage in silver and gold suggests what eventually awaits the stock market. the high January 29 was $121.66. At $63.40, this market has already lost nearly half its peak value. the parabolic rise to 121.66 heralded the decline to February 6 at $64.09 less than two weeks from silver's all time high.
The guys touting gold and silver coins on cable TV talk about, if you check, an offer price. They never discuss a bid price, what they would re-purchase your store of value. This is why Sprott exchange traded gold or silver bullion is he better idea. It is not time to buy yet.
6/19/2026
The hourly NDX chart registered an intra-day loss of 1,000 points before recovering. That and a five wave fpattern suggests a rebound is at hand.
Silver was down another 4% today, lower prices lie ahead.
Tuesday 11/3/2026 Fox Bisiness has had a line up of personalities, Maria Bartiromo, Stuart Varney, a panel, Charles Payne,and Liz Clayman. ...
