5/1/2026
UAE Exits OPEC
The United Arab Emirates UAE will withdraw its membership from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC. Iran’s unprovoked attacks on the UAE have finally driven the decision. The decision includes embracing Israel military capability as well as preserving its own wealth through oil production.
The population is eleven million but only about 11% are native to the country. The rest are immigrants who works and live there. UAE features the modern cities of Abu Dhai and Dubai. Dubai includes the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa. The Dubai Financail Centre is one of the world’s largest financial centers. The airport experienced 92 million passengers in 2024, ten times that of San Antonio. Luxury real estate and lifestyles are features of the country. All that has been threatened by the 2,800 drones and missiles from Iran.
The war with Iran has forced UAE to take a much more aggressive stand than most of its neighbors. The UAE finds itself apart from OPEC in this regard.
The UAE has adopted Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. This is vital to preserve the claims of a safe lifestyle in the country.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE feature competing leaders. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MBS and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, MBZ, are now rivals moving their respective countries to modern states.
The war has constrained UAE’s oil production. OPEC has never had a real enforcement mechanism to heal members to its quotas Leaving OPEC lets the UAE work on pipelines to route around the Hormuz Strait and boost its oil production.
UAE’s 68,000 active military are well trained. Unlike many Arab countries the UAE is not afraid to use the military power it has purchased from the West.
Before he was a US Senator, Phil Gramm taught economics at A & M College Station. Gramm notes that the $188 billion in reduced taxes, the Big Beautiful Bill, is offset by the cost of $195 Billion in tariffs collected. Despite administration claims, tariffs are a tax paid by Americans. After the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s unilateral move to tariff near everything, he doubles down on finding new ways to do so. Look for more tariff pain in 2026.
Capital spending on Artificial Intelligence by Big Tech runs to many billions. This has rescued the stock market from the woes of high oil prices back in the 1970s. That and a newfound energy independence thanks to the Permian Basin.
The DOW, knocking on 50,000 this Friday morning, looks to make a new high this next week, over 50,512. That will call for a new re-think of the DOW Theory, suggesting higher prices in equity markets.