All the News

 5/31/2026

Apparently the markets only care for high tech, never mind the rest of the world. Let's stroll thru the weekend WSJ

 

Trump Aids Weigh Killing Fund

% of credit card delinquent is highest since  2008, financial crisis

 

 Canada's economy shrinks for second straight quarter

LA has a chance to face reality

Trump's name has to come off Kenedy Center

Closure of Center blocked 

Musical groups say no way to performing at 250 gala

so President reacts

 "I understand Artists are getting 'the yips' having to do with their performance on Wednesday, so I am thinking about bringing the Number One Attraction anywhere in the World, the man who gets much larger audiences than Elvis in his prime, and he does so without a guitar, the man who loves our Country more than anyone else, and the man who some say is the Greatest President in History (THE GOAT!), DONALD J. TRUMP, to take the place of these highly paid, Third Rate 'Artists,' and give a major speech, rallying the Country forward like I have done ever since being President!" Trump wrote.

Trump said he was considering delivering the speech and holding a rally June 24 to kick off the festivities.

"I don’t want so-called 'Artists' that get paid far too much money, who aren’t happy," he wrote. "I only want to be surrounded by Happy People, Smart People, Successful People, and People that know how to WIN."

Freedom 250 later announced that Trump would, in fact, deliver a speech ahead of the Great American State Fair.

and on Saturday Trump called the who music affair off.

President Trump on Saturday called for the cancellation of the concert celebrating America’s 250th birthday after multiple artists withdrew from performing at the upcoming Great American State Fair on the National Mall.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that there should be “a giant MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN RALLY, for 250, instead of having overpriced singers, who nobody wants to hear, whose music is boring, and yet who do nothing but complain.”

 

_____________________

the press dislikes Trump as it disliked Nixon. I think it is like  1973 but it is 2026

It is truly amazing that at a President would claim he is a better draw than Elvis, this cannot end well 

1973-74 delivered a 50% decline in the DOW as public mood soured on the President and the markets 

_______________

 

Trump may well announce what the third Iran deal and the market soar and oil price drops and then Iran says no way a few days later 

Again I have no opinion on the future direction of the market 

 

Anothr Iran Deal

 5/29/2026

Another Iran Deal

Companies are finally realizing that half the consumers in the US can’t afford what they are selling.

Projected new car sales drop by one million

Shadowy Network of tankers keeps Iran oil moving.

Real estate agents leave the market as Housing Sales Sag

Various headlines this week

I remarked that if one or two stocks could goose an entire average, and this has been happening in the DOW Industrials, this market creep could continue for quite a while.

That is the case today. The Big Board leader is IBM, up again 10.6% just today. Salesforce has jumped 8.6% today. These two stocks are responsible for the price weighted DOW to advance 380 points or .75%.

Other than to observe that most momentum measures are maxed out, I have no further opinion on just how high this market might go.

On the energy front, stodgy Ford has finally had its day. In the last few days, it has jumped from $12 to $17.40. It enjoyed a similar parabolic rise in 2021 to $19.It then fell back to $9. Perhaps that was during the electric F 150 hurrah which turned to a bust years later. This time the focus is on Ford Energy Ford is purchasing a battery factory in Kentucky. The idea is to produce battery storage in shipping containers. I will spare you the electric lingo but that is the nutshell story. If the new division were called  Ford AI Energy, no doubt the stock would be $25.

Energy Secretary Bessent and Advisor Hassett continue to talk the price of crude oil down. To their credit, the near month is $87.30. The market finds solace in yet the latest iteration of an Iran deal. By the time you read this on the weekend, the deal will have no doubt been massaged again, I will pass on the details today. Iran realizes control of Hormuz traffic is their one, pardon the near pun, trump card. Iran no doubt suspects Trump cannot attack them again without calls for imposing the War Powers Act limiting Presidential action after 60days.  Iran has strayed from recent agreements already, expect that pattern to continue.

The current thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.75%, 5.99% for a

Fifteen-year rate. This coupled with rising gasoline and grocery costs is driving those realtors mentioned above to flee the market. The summer job market for teens looks poor.

Despite all these economic woes the stock market climbs higher, Jack’ Beanstalk never did better.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

 

One or Two Stocks Drive the Rally

 5/28/2026

Microsoft MSFT rose 3.47%nad Palantire PLTR rose 8.17%, far more than the rest of the Mag Seven but that was all it took to goose the NDX and NASD,As I observed a few days back, if one stock can goose the tech averages higer, this could go on for  quite a while. Each of the seven MAG and then a day for four or five AI stocks, and there you have a half month of gains. 

Walmart WMT finally had an up day but it is down from 134 to 119 in six days. Mach's ues BRK bought it and Dollar Tree up 17.8%, were the bright retail spots.  DLTR had fallen from 135 to 90 since February and jumped to 113 today.   DLTR reported strong earnings today, it gaped up on the chart.

The 2 Year T note has risen form 3.4% to 4% since March. that is a big move on the short end. Let's talk about the rates the FED cannot control.  This is a reaction to the 3.6% inflation rate. 

 Trump and Rubio continue to attempt to talk the oil price down, how many times will the oil and stock market fall for this. Iran will carry this charade right in to the mid-terms if they can.  I don't see significantly lower oil prices any time soon. See you this weekend.  

Ford Energy

 5/28/2026

What Changed, Ford Energy

Ford has languished ever since GM emerged from Bankruptcy debt free while Ford was saddled with the debt that kept it out of BK, go figure.  Ford announces its entry into the stationary battery storage business, and Wall Street likes it. After billons lost in the EV market, but success with its Ford Broncho, it is way pas time for Ford to be Ford again. 

Grocer Bills On a Tear

 May 27, 2026

Grocer Bills seen Higher 

Crude oil prices dropped again today as  Trump blasted the Iran proposal.

Stocks continue mixed but apparently want to move a bit higher. 

The Micron MU story recently posted shows just how wild speculation is.

Bonds have rallied short term but should be near the end of that rally.  We look to add TBF again. 

MU is now worth $1T

5/27/2026

 48 Days ago MU Micron Technology was worth $500B, today 1 trillion.  Yes it has something to do with the basics of an AI chip. But a 3x gains this fast?  As one observer put it, unprecedented. 

Cheaper Oil, not so Fast

 5/25/2026

 he issue is fraught as countries like Gulf heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Qatar have said they will never normalise ties with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is created.

 

Anna Jacobs of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington said Trump's latest demand added to the disaster that has been the war on all fronts for Gulf nations.

"The national security of the Gulf states has been threatened more than ever before because of President Trump's reckless decisions, and he expects Arab states to thank him and to normalize relations with Israel, which they will not do at this stage," she said.

"These expectations and assumptions from this US administration shows how little they understand the Middle East."

Read the entire article here 

There are 1300, not a misprint, comments, read a few. I don't see anyone saying right on Trump

Gasoline was  2.98 on Feb 28 and is 04.58 or so now,  Iran knows the mid-terms await, now in the article Trump demands  all the Gulf nations recognize Israel. Saudi and Qatar demand an independent palestine state, well ok Saudi ypu have lots of land create one except no one wants them.

Oil is now  $90, WTIC down $6. but surely we get a pop in stocks Tuesday and then or already no deal and oil oil rises and stocks fall. 

MY guess us that Iran plays cat and mouse right in to November. I don't think Trump can attack as he has run out of his War Power limit of 60 day 10 weeks in fact. 

Also, my research interest is how social mood affects social action. 

In that regard Trump helped defeat sitting Senator Cassidy. Now he has endorsed a problematic Paxton over sitting Cornyn. The Republican side of the Senate is not happy, I do not recall ever a OPresident of either party doing this. After November he is out of ammunition to throw at Republican incumbents, and in fact as primaries end, is there already. tough sledding ahead for Trump.  

 

What's Up with WMT?

 5/23/2026

 Merck was responsible for Friday's ip day. as mentioned in my column if one stock can goose an enteri average this could continue for a while'

 /an outside reversal day occurs when today's price exceeds yesterday's high, the entire range is larger than hte previous day, and the price closes lower. Here is the weekly chart ad all the descriptions apply. WMT had a strong quarter but had little to say about the rest of the year noting customers were buying less than 10 gallons of gas. As the biggest retail store this is significant. 

Consumer Semtiment Lowest on Record

 5/22/2026

 sentiment lowest on record stocks higher than ever, huh?

 

IBM Takes Off

 May 22, 2026

IBM Takes Off

IBM (IBM) surged 12.75% after the U.S. government announced a $2 billion investment in quantum computing, with IBM set to receive $1 billion for a new foundry, significantly outperforming the tech sector's 0.81% gain.

Thursday May 21

A blast from the past tech moved the DOW to a new high and again today as IBM jumps another 2%. In the 1960s IBM  was the Nvidia of its day, everything old is new again.

With a nod to sportswriter Jason Gray, there are two kids of financial forecasters who attempt to call tops and bottoms in markets. Those who are wrong and those who will be. This forecaster is now in both categories.  The DOW has surged to a new high, the Transports did so in April but retreated since.  I am not sure that counts as a confirmation. The SPX and NDX are within spitting distance of new highs. It Charles Dow were revising his theory of Industrials and Transports today, I suspect he would give the tech stocks a much larger role.

If a government grant to any one tech company can goose an index to new highs, well, this sort of thing could continue for some time.

Walmart announced strong results for the latest quarter. It also noted customers are buying ten gallons or less in their tanks, citing consumer stress. It left results for the rest of the year unchanged. WMT stock dropped seven percent that day, go figure.  

The big stock news is the Space X initial public offering. It is expected to mark a new high in billions raised. Elon Musk have been granted 1.3 billion Class B shares which will vest if he hits, well out of this world results. Those include human colonies on Mars, data centers in space. The Space X filing suggests those goals are improbable.

I have been correct about higher interest rates. Mortgages have risen to 6.51%. the benchmark te- year note is 4.58%, pulling back a bit. The thirty-year bond yields 5.08%. Kevin Marsh is sworn in as the new FED Chair today.  Trump has made no secret of his desire for a lower overnight FED rate. Good luck convincing him the bond market has already made up its mind on longer rates.

And then there is WTIC which jumps back and forth over $100. Most everyone now admits Trump will have to invade Iran to retrieve nuclear material. Is there any support for that in Congress with Mid-terms looming, probably not. Invade Cuba with its weak military, niot so fast,  Venezuela as the 51^st state, no way. Point being Trump has a lot on his plate beyond that East Wing Ballroom.

Expect higher stock prices, lower bond prices, and a continuation of triple digit oil prices.

Professorelam.blogspot.com

 

 

About that May14 Prediction

 5/21/2026

 

 Remember the DOW is price weighted. When one stock gains 12% in done day it skews the entire index, wow. 

_________________ 

Why is IBM moving today?

IBM (IBM) surged 12.75% after the U.S. government announced a $2 billion investment in quantum computing, with IBM set to receive $1 billion for a new foundry, significantly outperforming the tech sector's 0.81% gain.

_________________

 Prior to May14 I stated I had no further predictions on the stock market, I am now back to that conclusion. I do have an opinion  on interest rates, they will move higher. I see Trump is trying to talk the oil price down by suggesting an Iran deal. Unless he wants the Obama no deal forget that. 

Silver may be bottoming, we'll see.  

 

trump loses Momentum in the Social Mood Race to the Mid Terms

 5/21/2026

 WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republican leaders are expected to abandon a proposal for $1 billion in security money for the White House complex and President Donald Trump’s ballroom on Thursday after members amid backlash from members of their own party.

 The last-minute scramble comes as Democrats have criticized Republicans for trying to fund Trump’s ballroom when voters are concerned about basic affordability issues — and as some GOP lawmakers have grown increasingly frustrated with Trump.

__________________-

 

I made a talk last evening  regarding social mood generates social events. An alert audience member posed the quetion, how does one detect a shift in mood? I answered that one needs to look for subtle changes in what everyone thought was an unstoppable force. The above report is a good example.  Trup's attempt to put his name and signature on most everything is losing steam. 

The article goes on to point out disappointment with Trump's endorsement of Paxton over seated Cornyn in the Senate. Using political capital to beat seated Republicans is something Trump cannot afford to do. Here in Texas Paxton carries lots of negative baggage and might well lose to Dem Talarico. Understand this is not a political statement it is a social mood observation.  

Wave 2 Retraces Fall

 5/20/2026

Markets exhibited a strong Wave 2 move up today. This will test the validity of a May  14 high in the major indexes. Theses indexes should not move above the May 14high if that was a valid top. The rest of the week will tell. 

Silver has options, It budged a bit to the upside but not enough to call a bottom. Silver is in a fourth wave and can frustrate with lower prices like returning to 61. If so that will be a great entry.

Bond prices bounced with stocks and could do more to the upside but that will not change our outlook for lower bond prices and higher yields. 

 

Long Bond Yields Rise

 5/20/2026

Excellent CNBC article on interest rates 

 In four years rates are back to  2002

 

 

Why are interest rates rising?

 5/19/2026

from the WSJ

A weekslong selloff in government bonds has intensified in recent days, threatening to drive up borrowing costs across the globe and knocking some momentum out of what had been a furious stock rally. 

With bond prices sliding, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a key benchmark for mortgage rates and other borrowing costs, reached as high as 4.687% Tuesday, its highest intraday level since January 2025. 

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury also climbed to a new 18-year high near 5.2%, helping send the S&P 500 to its first three-day decline since March. The blow has been particularly acute to tech and industrials stocks, with both sectors down more than 1.5% this week.

Here’s what to know:

War

The main driver of the bond selloff is the U.S. conflict with Iran, which has paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and kept oil prices about 60% above where they were before the war started. 

Yields on government bonds largely reflect what investors expect interest rates set by central banks to average over the life of a given bond. With elevated energy prices feeding into inflation, investors have dramatically shifted their rate expectations in the U.S.—from anticipating cuts before the war, to now betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by the end of the year. 

__________________

Reality check - Rates bottomed in March 2020, the end of the 39 year cycle dating back to 1981. The war is just a footnote, what validates the technical picture. Rates will likely rise for many years, hello 39 year cycle.

 

A Momentum Cross to the Downside

5/20/2026

You will never see an 'expert' on a business cable tv show admonishing caution or placing protective stop loss orders, otherwise that expert would not appear. that was the case today on Charles Payne Fox Business show, The female expert was bullish, see my previous post on how many are bullish on tech stocks

 I set this on the 15 day daily so one can see the  PMO crossover to the downside at bottom. 

Hourly

the hourly PMO looks ready to bottom tomorrow, I wanted to add bear funds on a pop up, so it may be coming. 

The yield on the thirty year bond rose again today, no mention of that on Charles show.

WTIC 107.77

 

I see a double top, a break above this signals even higher prices.

today Trump claimed he was ready to attack again but held back as the Gulf States ask he hold back. That sounds like hot air. Project epic Fury, up aginst the  60 day War Powers Act became Project Freedom. If Trump attacks again look for howls from the Democrats asking for a vote on the conflict. Team Trup knows that which is the real reason for a sort of cease fire. 

Higher interest rates, higher oil prices, lower stocks, it's clear to me.  

Stock Market AI

 5/18/2026

Here's a quick recap of what was covered:

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Launch pricing is available through Wednesday, May 20th at midnight EST:

• One & Done Forecaster: ONEDONEFORECAST250 ($250 off)
• One & Done Algo: ONEDONEALGO250 ($250 off)
•  
• __________________________
•  
• Tickblaze sent me this today, guess you just enter and go play golf
•  
• I bet tracking this blog does better.... 

 

May 14, That'll be the Day

 5/18/226

OK I have been talking about a market top for months but the trend has shifted. See my previous post on wildly bullish advice. 

 I suggested watching the SOX semi conductor index as the best indication of a top. Well here we are. 

On the hourly chart we have a gap down, Charles Payne are you reading this?

 The Q is the NDX version of an ETF. Notice it looks darn near exactly like the SOX above.

As the analysts continue to see ever higher prices, the party ends. 

 

Here is the SPX and then the NDX, notice all these charts look the same! Each confirms the other. 

Remember STOCKS FALL SEVEN TIMES FASTER THAN THEY RISE.

Just reminding all of you focused on the bull market. The recent rise should be quickly retraced.

I will look to add bear funds on an expected bounce in these very minor one hour waves the next two days. 

Bonds the Big Story

You might re read my Friday 5/15 weekly newspaper column regarding how the bond market would affect the stock market. Right  on cue the stock market topped.

Bond prices, yields rising are literally falling thru the floor. Kevin Marsh, Donald T, are you paying attention, no they are not. s Richard Russell author of the Dow Theory Letter for many years, used to observe that the bond market is much more sophisticated than the stock market. No kidding bonds dropped March 9 2020 a clear 39 years from the high in rates in 1981. 

Okay Professor so how do we make money from all this?

First if you own stocks either place protective stop orders below existing positions or sell calls against ALL positions.  TBF rises as bond prices fall, PSQ rises as the QQQ falls.

 

The potential long term for making money in these two is impossible to calculate. Bond prices have a long way to fall, and PSQ, well the NDX has outpaces the INDU by 6x the last few years, misery for hose long tech stocks disappointment  lies ahead.  Here are my recommendations

Prudent Bear  BEARX, a mutual fund eligible for my 403 B

SH short SPX

PSQ short NASD

HDGE short the market

DWSH short the market

RWM short the Russell 2000

TBF short bond prices, wait for this to bounce a bit as bond prices are extended to the low side, watch the u[dates here. 

 

Energy and energy service is wild, I am thinking of buying and writing calls on energy service of HAL and SLB

 

Silver is correcting and I am holding a modest position of about $5K in PSLV, always buy sprott metal funds never the mining companies for metal investing

If you are a  reader I would like to hear from you

 

dennis.elam@att.net 

a Look at Alphabet - Google

 5/18/2026

 Googl is now said to be the up and coming AI stock. I have attempted an Elliott Wave number on the 3 year weekly chart. . Wave three is always the strongest confirmed by the high RSI and PMO. RSI has again risen over 70,PMO lags. But the fifth wave is straight up. Are analysts cautious, guess again.

 Dark green are buy, light outperform, yelow hold, I se no sell or underperform but less than five with no opinion.  From teh wave 2 low at 150, now at 400 Googl is up 2.6x, Sure it could go higher. But usually the best opinion on vertical lines is

chart in vertical position, no further analysis possible. 

I found 48 buys on NVDA  and 41 on MSFT. Today on Fox Business, Charles Payne had a list of 

'investing recommendations' along with a guy touting stocks I was unfamiliar with, hangers on at the top I would say. Charles'  list included the usual suspects of NVDA, AMZN, and did I see GOOGL I don't recall.

Point here if you bought and held good for you. But I would suggest selling calls or placing stop orders under positions for safety, not adding here.  

 

Dow components Topping

 5/17/2026

all the DOW averages have registered a top unlike the techj heavy SPX and NDX.

 Top to bottom, Industrials, composite, transports. The Industrials are just points away from a new high but dropped 537 Friday.  again we need a weekly close under the March low to confirm a top.

Would you buy the NDX now?  IN a month it has risen 2%, about one percent a day. We'll ee.

 

Interest Rates on the Rise

 5/15/2026

Interest Rates on the Rise

 

The yield on the ten-year Treasury note has now risen to 4.57%. The yield on the thirty -ear note has risen to 5.11%. This exceeds the 5.08% yield recorded in October, 2023.  Why is this important?

The Federal Debt now exceeds the annual Gross Domestic Product. The interest on the national debt is more than the Defense Department annual Budget. One can choose to spend more or less on defense. Trump’s latest Defense number is $1.5 trillion. Maybe, but there is no choice about the cost of the debt which is already issued. As it matures it must be re-financed. This means the new rates will be higher. In fact, this can be seen as a break-out in rates to new highs. More of this will follow.

The ten-year note also sets the pace for mortgage bonds. A slowing housing market is liable to get slower as a result.

And then there is the oil price, now at $14.63. On and offshore storage has fallen some 250 million barrels since March.  Consumption can be cut but there is a limit. That is about 2.5 days of global use. The critical level is referred to as ‘tank bottoms’ in the oil field. J P Morgan Chase estimates that in this condition the industry will be at an operational stress level by early June. With no change in Hormuz traffic, the industry is at operational floor level by September.

The International Energy Association has released 164 million barrels into early May. Governments can release more but this does not increase supply as these reserves once gone, are just that.

US stocks of diesel are falling below 100 million barrels of diesel. This matches the low level of 2003.

This looming crisis of oil supply would seem to negate the possibility of lower interest rates.  Annual inflation now runs about 3.6%.

Which brings us to the stock market. Despite new highs in the SPX, there are more stocks down than up in that index. Both the SPX and the NASD 100 or JDX gapped down today.  The index now trades around 7,430. It would take a drop under the March low around 6,400 to establish a top in the market. The QQQ a proxy for the NDX trades at 61.71. Its March low was 39.

Trump has tried to talk the price of oil down, as mentioned here last week. But references to a quick end to the Iran war send the wrong message to Iran. Iran knows Trump is under the pressure of looming mid-term elections.  A vote on the Iran war was tied at 50-50 in the Senate just this week. A few Republicans voted with the Democrats to halt the conflict. Iran is surely watching

Professorelam.blogspot.com

 

SA Bookkeeper Sentenced to 51 MOnths in Federal Prison

 5/14/2026

Daniella Vasquez bond revoked when tested positive for cocaine 

She stole from two employers for a total of $759,235, and it's all gone. 

Again this emphasizes the need for an external accountant to reconcile bank statements and remind employees someone is watching.  

30 Yr Bond Yield Exceeds 5%

 5/13/2026

thirty Year Rate 

 The FED began cutting rates at the red arrow, Sept 224. The thirty year yield has risen ever since. Today it topped 5%, the highest yield since, yes 2007, prior to the stock market top then. No matter what Trump's wrongly fixed fascination with short rates the longer term cost of money is rising. 

 Silver

Our prediction for higher prices is bearing out, here is the Sprott silver fund.

 Despite new highs in the SPX  there are more stocks down than up in the index. The topping process continues.

Topping

 5/11/2026

The charting function is not working, so no charts.  NYSE advance decline has flattened and that unweighted index is sideways for the last month.

See Spencer Jakab's Heard on the Street in today's WSJ he notes the highs at this point in  year 2000.

He is talking about the same thing I have been discussing, the AI mania has its echo in the dot.com mania of March 2000. The pattern today is about one or two months later than the top back then. 

1929- Radio Corporation of America

1966 - IBM, Control Data Fairchild Semiconductor

2000 - dot.coms,  coining the phrase burn rate, how fast their cash expenditures would run thru their IPO 

2007 - Housing, real estate never goes down

2026 - AI, welcome to the five trillion dollar valuation of NVDA

 Intel has a 627 B market cap and a 156 price earning ratio, what could go wrong?

40-130 in a month, a  3x increase

 

67% of Americans LivePaycheck to Paycheck

 5/10/2026

Paycheck to Paycheck 

 he percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck increased 4% from 2024 to 2025, with 67% of Americans struggling financially, a new report said.

Today the national average for a gallon of gasoline is $4.53.  a year ago is was  $3.42. 20 Years of gasoline rices

Malcolm Gladwell coined the phrase Tipping Point for one of his books, with a nod to Malcolm, when this many people have no savings, it does not take much to upset or move the break even tipping point of making ends meet. 

Point is, a 32% gasoline increase in one year for someone with literally no income to spare, well what to cut. As I said several posts ago, Trump is in trouble in the mi-terms. Do not think the oil price will come down any time soon. Iran can hold out longer than the Republicans running  for re-election. 

Analyst Joseph Goepfert conclude the SPX for the fourth time has hit a record high while 5% of its companies hit  52 week lows. The other three are

July 1929

January 1973

December 1999

I was not around for 1929 but have been for the last three.In January 1973, everyone was optimistic about the market, Nixon had won by a landslide, the market was at an all time high what could bo wrong, everything as it turned out. 

OPEC started the oil embargo in October 1973. Gasoline prices increased 4x. Rationing occurred using even odd license plate numbers. 

The Watergate scandal, or simply Watergate, was a political scandal in the United States involving the administration of President Richard Nixon. On June 17, 1972, operatives associated with Nixon's 1972 re-election campaign were caught burglarizing and planting listening devices in the Democratic National Committee headquarters at Washington, D.C.'s Watergate complex. Nixon's efforts to conceal his administration's involvement led to an impeachment process and his resignation in August 1974.  

 

 

 

Maersk CEO Issues Warning

 5/9/226

A wake up call with significant disruptions 

Looks a Lot Like March 2000

 5/8/2026

 

 Friday Night 5/8/2026 More later this weekend

XLF, the banks, peaked in early January 2026. Wave one carried to 48, two to 53, three will be much lower 

DOW

 DOW has so far fallen short of the February 10 high of  50,512. This should be the extent of the rally.

All of this harkens back to the same time period of early year 2000. The AI mania reminds one of the dot.com mania, a new tech gadget that attracts all the money on Wall Street. LThis should end the same way as thedot.coms. Sure internet would be a big deal and AI will as well, but neither justifies the rush of money initially. 

This new AI trade is leaving Nvidia in the dust

Western Digital and Seagate have outperformed leading AI semiconductor companies since ChatGPT debuted in 2022.

 

Gee that didn't last long.... 

 

OMG Whirlpool WHR

 5/7/2026

 This is what I have envisioned, a 50% drop in three months from a major mfg,not a MEME and it just dropped another 12% today! Where is the high tech rescue  Cathie Wood promises?

Recession Arrives at Whirlpool

 5/7/226

CEO Marc Bitzer said Thursday that the North American slide in sales has a precedent.

“This level of industry decline is similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods,” he said during a conference call.

Whirlpool said that its performance has been impacted by the Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down Trump’s emergency tariffs. Rival appliance makers are seeking refunds to reduce the impact of those tariffs, disrupting pricing in the industry further.

The Benton Harbor, Michigan, company estimated that the tariff impact on its competitors was about 10% to 15%, while the impact on its business was around 5%, according to details in its earnings presentation. 

________________

Tell this to the stock market! 

 

Trends Remain Up

 5/7/2026

the DOW traded off a smidge, interesting it plays with the 50,512 top but has yet to exceed it.

there is no significant trend change in stocks

 As predicted PSLV silver is advancing as is PHYS fold

Energetic Mid=terms

 5/7/2026

The Energetic Mid-Terms

Chris Sununu represents the US Airline Industry. Since the Iran war began, he has warned of ever higher airline ticket prices. Unless the war ends soon, it will only get worse. Spirit Airlines is already gone. The White House has gotten the message.

This is why President Trump has appeared twice on Maria Bartiromo’s morning Fox Business show to declare the war will end soon. His first effort April 8 brought oil prices down $10 and goosed the DOW 1,000 points. This week the same effort dropped oil about $5, stocks rose 500 points.

But the oil market is just that, it is not a talking point. Rosenberg Research lays out three scenarios this week. The first is a resolution is three weeks, slowing world growth to 2.9%from an expected 3.4%.

Scenario two extends a resolution to July. This drops growth to 2.6%.

Scenario three suggests a resolution after July. This drops growth to 2-2.5%. That translates to a world-wide recession. Sure, the US is now energy independent. Thank you Permian Basin.  But not so the rest of the world, read Europe Basin the UK and Germany. Both those economies are already struggling. Trump’s tariffs are not helping any country, not even America. Ford struggles with soaring aluminum prices, vital to its best-selling F-150 pickup.

The stock market has grasped at any favorable resolution. But really, the Iranians watch American television. It seems to this writer that every time President Trump talks about a short war, the message to Iran is that as usual, America’s interest and patience is short term. The Mullahs do not have to run for re-election as Republicans and Democrats do.  The latest idea is a one-page deal. The only deal Iran has ever liked was Obama’s gift of millions of dollars in an attempt to buy them off. And here we are.  November crude trades at $77.49 while near term is $91.31. Oil traders see some hope of resolution by the mid-term elections.

Profits in high tech continue to soar. Put call ratios, bets on lower rather than higher stock prices, are the lowest in years. This is an indication of great confidence in a continued rally. A close over 50,512, the previous high in the DOW, will buoy those hopes.

Global interest rates are rising. No wonder as global debt is the highest ever. Trump’s pick for a new FED chair is due for Senate confirmation next week. He daily attempts a rationale for lower interest rates, but he will be but one vote at the FED.

I would be that an Iran resolution will be later rather than sooner.

 

Another Everything Rally

 5/6/2026

On April 8 trump went on Maria Bartiromo's morning Fox Business show and claimed the Iran war was all but over. The DOW rallied 1,000 points and oil drolpped $10 which is what he wanted.

Today he did the same thing and oil dropped $10 at first and the market DOW and everything else rallied, not quite as much as April 8.

 This  195 minute chart on RSI and PMO suggests yes the DOW can rally more, yes above the all time high at  50,512. . In that case the market high is not in and I have no idea where it will be. 

 So what can I suggest, glad you asked, silver

Sprott Silver Trust, this trust literally owns silver bullion not silver miners

 PSLV is trading at a h-5.28% disc ount to the Net Asset Value

PSLV liquidated is worth $24.91 for where silver is trading. But the trust is trading at $23.59. So PSLV is trading at a discount to the price of silver, never mind those guys on TV selling at jacked up prices who would never buy it back from you, this is the real deal 

PHYS Gold Trust trading at  -2.59%

CEF trading at  -4.56%

Well PHYS is the best deal at the largest discount to NAV and the lowest price, I will be buying tomorrow on the gap up today.  

Bond yields are rising world wide. US debt is more more than annual GDP, headlines say not to worry.

 Ken Griffith who bought the most expensive real estate in NYC, ever, was stunned Mayor Mandami will tax him on it, well duh Ken, next time you get out your real estate check book call me first. 

Ken did make the point that in A CNBC interview,  1950 Detroit was a thriving city,  no longer, GM et al would not re engineer its cars, the Japanese took 30% of the car market in ten years, and Detroit went downt the tubes with DEM mayors. It could happen in NYC. ICE Exchange is alreacy out pacing the NYSE.

I sent two pages via UPS from SA to Ohio today,  It cost $16 and would not arrive until Monday, this is the real cost of $100 oil and it has not filtered thru the economy yet. 

Trump's Other WH Press Secretary

 5/6/2026

 

Trump loves to be on television. One of his favorite venues is Maria Bartiromo's Fox Business show pre market open. This morning for the second time, he virtually announced an end to the Iran war. Last time, oil dropped $10, it did so again this morning. Really, is the oil market that naive? Hormuz is still mined and Iran has never made a deal with anyone, still the DOW jumped  500 points.

The Resilient Stock Market

 5/5/2026

SOX rose 4.2% today. Transports bounced off its 50 day moving average. 

 From the March low one can make a case that TRAN has just corrected and is still in an uptrend. 

SPX

the equity charts pretty much all, TRAN excepted, look like this, over bought but still in an uptrend

 Secy State delivered a press conference this afternoon and looked like a Secy of State should, unlike Trump he does not ramble or talk about himself. He made the case that Iran is at war by layng mines in an international waterway. Yes Iran has high inflation and near wrothless currency but so did Argentina for a decade.  Hard to see how this ends without more fighting. 

For now trends are up but extrenekt overbought.  

There's More, Backlash over Bezos Sponsor of Met Gala

 5/4/2026

It Gets Worse, after the Yacht, Now the Met 

 

I am not sure which photo  will be the signature photo of top of the markets, Lauren above or the $400 M house for sale in CA, but this is  a nominee

the flappers of hte 1920s, the mini skirts of the 1960s, and well .here we are now, after renting the city of Venice for their wedding, now on to the Met Gala 

 

Bezos Selling $500 M Super Yacht, too much Attention

 5/4/2026

Market manias result in over the top projects of all  kinds. Typically te projects are planned during the mania, only to find a lack of interest in the ensuing decline. Examples of the 1930s

Empire State Building

Duesenberg  Auburn Cord car company which folded in the late 1930s

Now Bezos has had enough of the $22 M annual upkeep 

and the look at the excess of this guy attention it has brought

trust me this is a socionomic clue to a top in the markets

see the last post 

All Equity Markets Close Down

 5/4/2026

 the DOW openned down this morning and closed lower. The NDXand SPX were up but also closed down today.  Above all major equity index closed lower.  The DOW made its high February 10. That was teh pattern at the March 2000 high when the NDX and SPX topped that March 2.5 months after the DOW.

Transports Lead Any Move 

 Notice a  4.82% decline just today, and that after near continuous decline for near two weeks. 

SOX Has yet to Reverse

 the pattern of SOX  parallels that of TRAN above. 

The GP of Hungary is $482 billion. Poland  is $2.1 Trillion. Mexico is $3.5 Trillion. Canada is $2.9 Trillion.

Now consider the market cap of

NVDA 4.9 T

Alphabet Google, about to pass NVDA 4.9T

Apple 4.1T

Meta 1.5 T

MSFT  3 T

Does that make any sense, that these companies are worth more than the four countries cited above?

Think about it, Meta is a giant scrapbook company, sure it sells lots of ads but really.

Another key indicator will be the junk bond market, which looks very toppy.

UPS dropped 10% today. FED Ex down 9%.  Ryder down 6%.  C H Robinson down 9%. 

the thirty year bond yield has risen to 5.02%, the previosu high is 5.179% OCt 23, 2023. No matter who Donald appoints to the FED rates are rising. 

Crude oil rose to 106.42, up $5. A thirty dollar buy of 87 octane today only got me eight gallons. Donald is in serious trouble for the mid-terms.  His tariffs slow markets world wide. 

UK Exports to US drop 25%, now wodner King Charles was here.  

 We are close to my patience waiting for a top to be rewarded.