Thursday, April 30, 2026

Markets Soar on Anything AI

 4/30/2026

a front page article in today's WSJ told of the billions high tech companies plan to invest in AI. Amazon and Google soared. Meta made lots of money and dropped  as did MSFT.



 
This is yet again how price weighted stocks can goose teh averages, above is Google.

CAT jumped nearly 10% just today, other DOW stocks were up but this is oe of the most expensive DOW stocks so boom the DOW rises over 700 points.  CAT is getting into the energy ge neration business but up is up regardless of reason. 

the ten year note yield had an inside day so expect omre sideways action. 

WTIC dropped about $3 but is above $100. As one who lived through the 1970s this is rather bizzare but...unlike then the US is energy independent. News reports are that Iran is out of space to store oil which means shutting in wells. As an oil field veteran nothing good happens when one shuts in a well. I have not been to the Middle East fields but they flow without mechanical assistance.  

 

DOW has yet to take out the February high at  50,512 but it really looks like it wants to do just that.  Transports were up 1.28%. I am beginning to wonder if any of the traditional rules like DOW theory still apply. 

At this point I have net feeling for where the market is liable to go in the near or more distant future. One can see RSI PMO MACD are quite high but then so are the markets. No sign of turning down yet. 

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Visa saaves the day

 4/29/2026

the DOW would have been down much more today but for  VISA which jump[ed 8%


 The  major averages are topping.  $103 oil, tariffs, see Phil Gramm's column in the WSJ, are taking their toll. 

Transports


 Six days of decline in a row, the Transports lead, Note RSI top and PMO bottom, as Richard Russel used to say, there's a hard rain coming. 

In 2007 the buy write ooption funds, writing calls on securities, collapsed as a prelude to the overall collapse, it is about to happen again.


 All momentum indicators are about to roll over and descend. If you are reading this blog you are prepared.  T bills and bear funds preferred.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Polymarket Calling a Top in Speculation?

 4/28/2026

Not Guilty Betting on Maduro and winning $400 K 

 

Sometimes there is a seminal event that heralds a market top, this is the sort of thing that happens. It sounds bizzarre but the guy did it, so what, politicians bet on winning elections how is this different? 

UAE to leave OPEC 

Here you go, same thing! 

A Crackin the World - of AI that is

 4/28/2026

It's the returns on AI, it's the price of oil, it's well we don't know 

The media has no method other than to link the events to some news item, so today it was AI and Oil.


 
Yesterday I suggested the SOX index would be as god as any to track a top as semi conductors were goosing the market, well whaddya know! PMO is clearly topping in both graphs but you won;t hear that in the media. Industrials did not do much but NDX dropped 1%. Well that is a start.

I am working on a method for selling naked options, I know that sounds wild but not if there is a method and it has a track record. Stay tuned for more on this. 

MY short list of naked calls would be

 

Walmart WMt

V Visa

SHW Sherman Williams

NKE Nike

I made this list this morning, ow look at SHW, it has not fallen at that time


 Ok so I looked for an answer, bad earnings, hardly. This sort of thing is what one expects of a bear market,  in bear markets all news is bearish, yes it makes no sense but here we are.

Stay tuned to www.professorelam.blogspot.com, this is getting more interesting. 

  • The Sherwin-Williams Company recently reported past first-quarter 2026 results, posting sales of US$5,666.9 million and net income of US$534.7 million, alongside higher earnings per share than a year earlier.

  • Around the same time, Sherwin-Williams reinforced its focus on premium, sustainable products with the launch of Emerald Symmetry, a zero-VOC, plant-based interior paint backed by third-party certifications.

  •  

    Monday, April 27, 2026

    SOX 19 Days Up

     4/27/2026


     
    First the daily then a  195 minute or two bars a day. Finally the SOX did not advance today but neither did it show an outside reversal day. So the trend remains up. this market  is the one driving SPX and NDX higher to it is the one to watch. 

    FED meeting Wed, with oil at  $97 I expect no changes 

     

    Friday, April 24, 2026

    SOX up 48% this month

     4/24/12026


     SOX is the semi conductor index. It had a similar blow off in March 2000 before collapsing over the next two years.

    Transports are collapsing. Notice the TRAN looked just like SOX above before the reversal. 

    3,700 point decline in three days...
     

    The Seige Settles In

     4/24/2026

    The Siege Settles In

     

    Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

    Yogi Bera

    Yogi was right in is usual manner. Howeve, we can gather some observations which serve as clues to what the next six months hold.

    Despite cease fires, negotiations, threats, and what all, West Texas Intermediate is trading about $95.  Brent tops $100. The drop form $117.50 for WTIC has been a correction, not a new trend.

    The AAA national average 87 octane gasoline is $4.06. This is well above the $3.17 year-ago average.   Gasoline prices tend to creep up into the summer driving season but this is something else.

    The US Energy Information Administration expects electricity prices to continue higher. They go ton to say regions with already high rates are liable to experience even higher rates.  

    CEOs at American and United Airlines are predicting ticket prices to rise 20% in the coming months. The American Air CEO goes so far as to suggest his airline will not be able to turn a profit this year. Imagine all that work, all those flights, and not making any money. Some carriers are already cancelling less traveled routes to conserve on the jet fuel on hand.

    The Department of Defense / US Navy estimates it may take six months to clear the Hormuz Straits of mines. Passage through the Panama Canal normally cost $300 - 400,000. Prices have already risen to $425,000. Expedited crossings are said to run $4 Million. Point is, those costs for cargo will show up in higher prices for everything shipped.

    Trump’s tariffs continue unabated. The cost of anything made of metal is now higher due to tariffs. Ye the tariffs have not resulted in foreign locations returning to the US, and they will not. The cost of production is simply too high in the US. That is why the Toyota Tacoma is now made in Mexico.

    Note that six months to clear the Hormuz Strait. While passage ranges from dangerous to not at all, we can expect high energy prices.  Which puts the wait right into the November mid-term elections. Democrats will turn out in full force as will independents. Trump’s hold on the House is doubtful which will end his chances of passing any legislation.

    The stock markets are cooling their recent rise. Industrials are still below the February 10 50,512 high. Taking out that level will be significant. However, Wednesday the Transportation average fell about 2,500 points. Transports typically lead the other averages.

    The next six months will not lack for intrigue

    Professorelam.blogspot.com

     

     

    Thursday, April 23, 2026

    Is the Market Finally Topping?

     4/23/2026


     This is the daily NASD, the one that really powers the markets. I updated my Industrial list, amazing how many NASD stocks are in the DOW.  Momentum indicators RSI PMO MACD are topping.  We will have to wait for a better turn signal to declare a top, more tomorrow.

    Wednesday, April 22, 2026

    A Market Top At the Last Moment?

     4/22/2026


    This is a 30 minute chart of the Dow Transports, a short time frame to show the dramatic reversal.

    Perhaps the most successful market letter writer was Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory. He used to write, me I am going with the Dow Theory, the Transports and Industrials must confirm one another.  

    Industrials have not bettered their early February peak at  50,512 . Transports made a new high unconfirmed by the Industrials. If i fact a high is finally here it will be one of the most dramatic turn arounds in market history.


    Avis as  a price weighted stock led the Transports down, Avis posted a one billion dollar loss this past year. It clearly has been a MEME stock, betting on a loser by small investors. I wonder how many more Avis stocks are out there?



    Industrials


     RSI at top is falling, PMO at bottom has turned over, this looks like a very interesting week.

    Peter O'toole had the distinction of being the most nominated but never winning Academy Awards guy.

    I feel a lot like Peter after calling so many market tops this year. 

    As Peter said, don't give up on me!

    More tomorrow 






    Interpublic Settles SEC Charges

     4/22/2026

     

    This is an example of fraud at the highest levels. 

    Sweetwater Man Commits $12.3 M Fraud

     4/22/2026

    Meet Stewart Williams, Fraudster 

    Meet the Cheats at Forest Park Medical

     4/22/2026

    Forest Park Medical Center


    https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/21-forest-park-medical-center-employees-indicted-in-bribery-scandal/  


    https://natlawreview.com/article/forest-park-medical-center-and-travel-act-different-road-same-destination               


    The Forst Park Medical Center Fraud case demonstrates the three elements of the fraud triangle outlined in Chapter 5 LO 5-2. Incentive, Opportunity and Rationalization. The incentive was the desire for financial gain, as doctors were offered large payments for referring patients to the hospital. One spinal surgeon received $7 million, while two bariatric surgeons received payments of $4.5 and $3.4 in kickbacks. The opportunity came from their control over referral and billing systems. This control allowed them to create shell companies and use false agreements to hide the payments. These payments were labeled as “marketing agreements” to make them look legitimate. Rationalization occurred when the participants told themselves the payments were for legitimate services. This belief helped them justify their actions and continue the fraud without feeling responsible for their behavior.

     

    Tuesday, April 21, 2026

    A 700 Point Down Day

     4/21/2026

    From teh day high to the close, 699 points down. But that does not change the trend, rather it corrects the big up move last Friday.

    I would never have thought stocks would hold up against $90 crude oil.  But here we are. No change in bonds.
     

    Monday, April 20, 2026

    Market Not Giving Much of a Hint

     4/20/2026



     

     

    The February 10 high was 50,512. That is 1,070 points higher. A move above 50,512 suggests we have a whole new scenario and a top is not anywhere near in place. This is the 195 minute chart, Yes itis toppy but could go higher

    Daily

    The sam comment aplies to the daily chart shown here. 

    Bonds are moving sideways. Silver and gold are too volatile to play, next update tomorrow. 

    Friday, April 17, 2026

    The Markets Erupt

     4/17/2026

    Here is the weekly SPX chart


     I noticed the SPX peaked a year ago in Feb and fell and went on to a big rally, it peaked this Feb, fell and now  the technicals suggest another rally. RSI at top rallies and PMO is set up to do so. 

    NDX NASD TRAN are all hitting new highs, I suspect Charles DOW would modify his theory today to include NDX and or multiple rallies. 

    the two hour chart suggests the market is over done short term. 

    Indeed, the Mullahs say they will allow passage of the Hormuz,  I say BIG WHUP, Trump squeezed their oil exports and amid a worthless currency and potential riots they had to say something, is that worth anything, yet here we are.

     My expectation of a market top or tops so far has been proven wrong. But market tops occur amid massive positive social mood. I have cited numerous reasons not to be optimistic, see my weekly newspaper column in the previosu post. 

     


     The two hour chart is way over done which one would expect at a market top. Even if we are looking at another multi-month rally, this situation needs a correction. 

    More later this weekend.  

     

    The Basin and the Mid Terms

     4/17/2026

    The Basin and the Mid-terms

     

    Never get involved in another person’s political race.  Never make an enemy if you can avoid it,  

    Sound Advice from Andrews County Judge Roy D. Bennet, 1978

    President Trump regularly ignores this sound advice at every opportunity.  It could spell big trouble for the energy rich Permian Basin in the mid-terms.  Let’s take a look.

    Trump delights in his belief that a personal endorsement sprinkles immediate success on its lucky designee. Consider  his embrace of Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race in 2022.  Raphael Warnock won with 51.4% to Walker’s 48.6%. It was the only Democrat statewide victory in 2022.

    Vice President J D Vance doubled down on this kind of bet by traveling to Hungary to campaign for Viktor Orban. Orban conceded defeat three hours after the polls closed. The winner’s party took 137 of the 199 seats in the Parliament.

    Another recent foray was pressuring Texas Governor Abbott to re-draw the electoral map. On cue, Democrat controlled states did the same.

    There is not enough space in the column to compile a complete Trump Enemies List.  In the US, Trump continues to threaten Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even trying to indict him for the cost of a new building. Never mind it is built with FED not US money.  He fires Attorney General and former personal lawyer Pam Bondi for not pursuing his enemies. Gee ,who wants that job?

    Overseas, Trump has been in overdrive.  Canada is the US 51st state. Greenland is ours. The EU has not stepped up on his unannounced military conflict in Iran. A friend to this point, Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni is criticized for not sending warships to the Arabian Gulf.  And not to be out done, Trump criticizes Pope Leo for being soft on crime and catering to liberals. Catholics were supporting Trump.

    With crude oil trading around $90, and gasoline over $4.00, Democrats propose taxing big oil for windfall profits n the Iran crisis.

    Polymarket has the midterm election as a 56% chance the Democrats take the Senate and 86% the House.  The point is that given this environment, a Democrat take over does not offer bode well for the energy industry.

    The SPX, NASD, and NDX have hit new highs. This seems to negate the idea that tops are in place for the major stock markets. Given the military action in Iran and higher energy prices, this is hard to process, but here we are. Perhaps the seasonal end of the November to May rally will provide more answers.

    www.professorelam.blogspot.com

     

    Wednesday, April 15, 2026

    New Highs

     4/15/226

    SPX and NDX made unexpected new highs. My firends at EWI now compare this to early  year  2000 when the same thing happened, DOW did not make new highs. But the market soon topped and declined.


     
    A chap named Wells Wilder created several technical indicators till in use today, above main panel are the blue dots of PAR SAR Parabolic stop and reverse. This is great when te market take off, may 2025-Nov 2025, but of little help in a mostly sideways market, Nov 2025 to now. 

     

    But coupled with RSI, PMO, CCI, we have a better idea of highs and lows. For now, honestly I do not know, seasonally we are at or near a market high, after May go away.  

    More updates the next two days

     

     

    Tuesday, April 14, 2026

    Another New High

     4/14/2026

    stocks go where they want, no matter war, high oil prices, you name it. Today's high calls into question the wave count given the 1/28/2006 7,002 last high. If that 1/28 high is taken out, all the assumptions are wrong which is rather stunning given the high oil prices et al. 


     At this point all I can say is let teh market tell us where it wants to go. Yes on the  195 minute chart the market looks quite toppy,  but frankly it should have already turned down. 

    No comment on bonds or silver. 

    Next update tomorrow. 

    Monday, April 13, 2026

    Audit Frms Substitute AI for Humans

     4/13/2026

    Firms Substitute AI for Humans

    WSJ 4/10/2026

    Accounting firms are scaling back the role of human auditors in routine testing of things like payroll and revenue contracts, long a critical part of their work, amid a greater reliance on AI agents.

    KPMG said it plans to remove humans from routine testing so they can focus on more complicated tasks, while “orchestration agents”—which autonomously manage several agents, potentially more than 20—handle testing duties. That switch will start with a pilot program this summer, with plans for full AI agent deployment on certain tests next year.

    While human auditors won’t perform routine testing, they will still review it, work on data collection and do risk assessment. Of these four areas of the audit, only routine testing was listed as having no human audit team associated with it within two to three years, according to a presentation in a KPMG briefing.


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    “Tomorrow, for those routine transactions, I think there will be next to no human beings in that bubble,” said Thomas Mackenzie, KPMG’s audit chief digital officer. “It will all be agents and orchestrators doing it.”

    Accounting firms are working to change how traditional auditing work is done, with the aim of taking away younger professionals’ rote work and allowing them more critical thinking.

    Routine testing includes payroll, expense vouching, cash procedures, search for unrecorded liabilities, accounts receivable, acquisitions of new buildings and equipment, and the cost of goods sold. Human auditors, for years, pulled a finite sample of these items, extracted the data into an Excel spreadsheet, applied auditing guidelines, and marked whether the items passed or failed.

    AI tools now run alongside traditional human audits to compare results and ensure quality control. Firms in recent years have used AI agents for testing, but that work has been limited. At KPMG, AI agents are prompted by people to conduct a discrete set of tasks with humans evaluating tests and moving them to other agents to complete the work.

    Some Big Four firm leaders estimate that agents will contribute between 20% and 30% of a typical financial audit by 2029, essentially the proportion of the human effort that will be removed.

    KPMG logo on the side of the Torre de Cristal building in Madrid.At KPMG, AI agents are prompted to do certain tasks and are vetted by humans who then pass the work along to other AI agents for completion. Eduardo Parra/Zuma Press

    “It sounds like we’re just slicing the bottom of the pyramid off,” Mackenzie said. “We’re lifting the pyramid up.”

    Testing is a key part of auditors’ assessment of company financial statements. Auditors are required to examine specific business transactions and financial documents to verify that they actually exist, and are recorded and accounted for accurately.

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    The stakes for accurate auditing are high, as failures can result in billions of dollars in costs to investors. Regulators are just starting to develop frameworks around AI in auditing. Last week, the U.K.’s Financial Reporting Council issued guidance on how firms should use these tools, warning that the human auditor is always accountable.

    While the firms vary on timelines, they generally agree that AI agents will increasingly handle routine testing—such as payroll and expense vouching—to improve efficiency and data accuracy.

    PricewaterhouseCoopers is attempting to apply AI agents to more advanced testing, such as assessing whether revenue for U.S. pharmaceutical rebates was recorded properly, said Shawn Panson, the firm’s U.S. assurance transformation leader.

    The illuminated PwC logo and building against a dark blue sky.PricewaterhouseCoopers expects its AI agents to take on audit tasks involving more judgment over time. yves herman/Reuters

    The firm’s evidence-match tool, which automatically matches information between two sets of records, can process 30 types of documents from a client, Panson said. Six months ago, the tool could only read basic PDFs.

    Panson said he expects AI agents to be able to ingest more information and take on audit tasks involving more judgment over time, while humans continue to provide oversight.

    At Ernst & Young, auditor agents will soon be talking with the agents of its clients about audit testing procedures, among other things.

    In changes being piloted now, EY’s agents are making preliminary selections of financial statement data and requests for supporting information. Clients’ agents will collect supporting details and send them to EY’s agents, which will use that to prepare working papers that are then reviewed by humans.

    “The routine areas are absolutely where we see the opportunity to increase a different amount of technology and automation,” said Richard Jackson, EY’s global and Americas assurance AI leader. This week, EY globally launched new agentic AI capabilities for auditors and clients.

    The quality of AI agents will improve as they are able to more accurately spot inconsistencies in data, Jackson said. That could involve making key catches in revenue contracts spanning hundreds of pages, for example.

    The EY logo on a building in Warsaw, Poland.This week EY launched new agentic AI capabilities for auditors and clients. Jakub Porzycki/Zuma Press

    “The ability to say a memo or a piece of analysis talked about something in a certain way, but that doesn’t correspond or isn’t supported by the underlying data, is incredibly powerful,” he said.

    Deloitte & Touche opts for a more conservative, human-centric public stance to reassure their clients on human accountability and audit quality. Deloitte, which includes Deloitte & Touche in its global network, sponsors CFO Journal.

    The firm views agentic AI as enhancing the human auditor’s capabilities to continuously improve audit quality, not replacing them, said Will Bible, the firm’s digital products leader.

    “While AI will transform how we execute testing and improve efficiency, audit quality ultimately depends on human judgment, professional skepticism and accountability,” Bible said. 

    This shift doesn’t necessarily signal a decline in the hiring of junior auditors, KPMG’s Mackenzie said.

    He won’t hire a college graduate anymore to create workpapers, he said. Instead, he’s looking for someone who grasps the findings of a workpaper with the assistance of AI.

    “Audit know-how is still going to be gold,” Mackenzie said. “We need that.”

    Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

    Appeared in the April 14, 2026, print edition as 'CPAs’ Role in Key Part of Audits Fades In This Critical Part of Audits, the Accountant’s Role Is Shrinking Fast'.

    Mark Maurer is a reporter on The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Journal team. Based in New York, he writes about corporate finance, accounting, auditing and regulation of companies. Before joining the Journal, he covered New York commercial real estate as associate web editor and reporter at The Real Deal. Prior to that, he was a copy editor at the Star-Ledger. He completed the Knight-Bagehot fellowship program in economics and business journalism at Columbia University in 2019.

    Videos

     

     

    Jamie Dimon's Annual Letter

     10/13/2026

    has Jamie been reading this blog? 

    TXCPA Student Events

     10/3/2026

     

    TO: TXCPA Faculty Ambassadors

    I hope this email finds you well. 

    I wanted to follow up from my email last week and share ONE link with all of the upcoming student events. 


    Please don't hesitate to reach out should you have any questions. 

    Saturday, April 11, 2026

    Bankruptcies on the Rise

     

    4/11/2026

    US Bankruptices rise 11% in 2025 

     See my 4/10/2026 post on similarities now and in 1973.

    In posts on the markets, I make clear the stock markets have all topped yet no one seems to pay any ttention.  

    Friday, April 10, 2026

    Clouds on the Horizon

     4/10/2026

    Clouds on the Horizon

    The US and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, but economic warfare is here to stay.

    Iran flexes Its Muscles, WSJ today

    If one had no knowledge of the last few weeks, reading the press reports today would give on no clue as to the Israel and US attack on Iran. Now Iran wants to run a ‘toll booth’ on ships crossing the Hormuz Strait. Worse, Trump suggested the US and Iran might partner on this, an idea  the White House later denied.

    There is a parallel to the US situation in 1973-74. The Stock Market had just hit new highs, then as now.  Interest rates were rising. The country was reeling from the energy shock of the first Arab embargo. The President was unpopular with the press and the country was politically divided. Nixon had a written enemies list. The Democrats finally pounced on the accidental admission Nixon taped Oval Office conversations. Nixon never recovered finally resigning rather than face impeachment. History never exactly repeats but consider recent events.

    ·      During a Ford plant visit January 13, trump replied to an auto worker comment with a vulgar hand gesture and a four-letter comment. Trump later rejects Ford’s plea for aluminum tariff relief.

    ·      Trump fires AG Bondie for failing to legally pursue his enemies.

    ·      On Easter Sunday Trump referred to Iran as ‘crazy bastards’ again invoking vulgar remarks regarding the Hormuz Strait. Yes, the same country he suggested partnering with a week later to share Hormuz tolls.

    ·      Trump threatens to wipe out the entire Iranian civilization.

    ·      On cue, Democrats file articles of impeachment against both President trump and SecDef Hegseth.

    ·       For good measure, Democrats call for the President’s removal via the 25th Amendment.

    In 973, the markets held up for several months and then began a relentless trudge to a 50% loss at Dow 577 by December, 1974.

    All this has a familiar ring to me. Few if any of today’s financial advisors experienced this negative bout of social mood.

    The stock market has managed a re-bound from the ‘military attack’ sell-off of 10%. It is remarkable that the markets are this high amid $100 oil. While August oil futures trade in the low $80s, uncertainty about the Middle East remains even higher than usual.

     The six weeks of military action have ended. Republicans facing mid-term elections have apparently begged for a halt in the fighting. And so here we are.

    Thirty-year bond prices have fallen from 1181 to 112 and like stocks, have rebounded a  couple of points. It It is hard to see the FED justifying a rate cut amid $100 oil prices. That oil price uncertainty is likely to last for some time.

    Trump mis-took the ease of removing Venezuela’s Maduro with  re-making a 6,000 year-old Persian Empire.

    Caution is advised.

     

    Thursday, April 9, 2026

    Oil and Stocks Rise

     4/9/2026

    Crude oil is back up $5 to $99, yet stocks rose a half percentage point, just goes to show the wave theory has validity.  Stocks gained 1,200 DOW points on a drop in oil but rose again on a rise in oil.

    If anything, the danger to the US from Iran is now much higher given their desire for revenge. Trump seems to have mistaken snatching Maduro same as snatching an entire country. Leaving the Iran regime in power is quite dangerous. 

    My view is unchanged, wave two up in stocks could already be done, it should not last much longer. 

    Oil is expensive here though we have plenty due to arbitrage. If oil were $65 here, tankers from the rest of the world would line up to by, it's a global market.  

     

    More this weekend.  

    Wednesday, April 8, 2026

    Wave Two Opens Higher

     4/8/2026

    OK, analysis, I should have gone aggressively short on the move down from all time highs, the crossover of PMO and drop of RSI. Given Trump ultimatum, no trade would have been better yesterday but a small addition not big loss. 


     In fact the upside occurred in Globex before the market openned in the US. No real follow thru, lots of short covering. Now RSI and PMO are near max, more possible but...

    Now what Donald?  Iran can claim to have lasted the Great Satan, still in control of Hormuz, and can send rockets  to its neighbors? And now there is a two week window  for Iran to recover.

    NDX Reistance


     the red line should mark a resistance area before the rally ends. 

    Bond prices rallied a bit along with stocks. Bond and stock prices will resume their downtrends, patience.

    I don't see trying gold and silver at this point. 

    Do not believe calm has returned, check out this NBC report.  Those readers old enough to recall Watergate, can see echoes of that sentiment here. While the Republican controlled Senate will not likely vote to convict and I doubt the narrow control House will,  imagine  the Dems controlling both Houses after November.  My map for 226-227 is in fact  1973-74 where the DOW dropped 50% in two years.

    ___________ 

     

    More than 70 lawmakers, including a handful of senators, said in separate social media posts that Trump's Cabinet needs to invoke the 25th Amendment to the Constitution and declare him unfit to serve, Congress should impeach and convict him, or both.

    "The House and Senate must return to session. The House must pass articles of impeachment, and then the Senate must vote to convict and remove the President. Or, the cabinet and Vice President, with congressional concurrence, must invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump," Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., wrote in a statement on X.

    Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he agreed with calls to invoke the 25th Amendment, adding: “No President in control of his senses would publicly promise to eradicate an entire civilization.”

    Tuesday, April 7, 2026

    wmT Update / Wave Two Ending

     4/7/2026

    Sure glad I watched WMT from the sideline. After amazing growth the last five years

    WMT tanked four bucks today. 

     

    OK WMT is going to digital tags and the stock tanks, more likely long term profit taking. 

    SPX


     I added short positions and more orders under the market. Lore has it that there is alwaus a fundamental event to justify the technicals, the technicals are saying sell, at least I think so. Here are some fundamentals

    Profanity laced threat by Trump Easter Day

    Military Action in Mid East upsetting idea that investing and living there is safe

    Bernie Sanders wants to regulate AI - I saw a 65 inch flat TV in WMT today for $328, imagine what it would cost if Bernie were in charge of fair pricing for the working man's TV

    Iran has placed women and children around sites Trump threatens to bomb 

    EU is kinda sorta trying to help the Iran action

    Oil is $114, gasoline $4 a rising, don't buy the story it will collapse when Hormuz clears

     DHS is unfunded

    There is a shortage of computer chips

    Interest rates are rising

    Federal fraud in medicare, hospice, autism, 

    Sh is short SPX, I added at market and placed orders at lower prices

    If wave three down is confirmed this week, I will add more short positions 


     

      

      

     

     

     

    Monday, April 6, 2026

    Pizza

     4/6/2026

    ONe does not go out of business because of poor pizza

     

    It is always cash flow. Gna Maries 


    Junk Bond Investors Head for Exits

     4/6/2026

    Junk Bond Warning 

    Higher Junk Yields are a sign junk investors are worried, junk bonds are as my friends as EWI say, stocks in drag, hmm. Wave Two in stocks should top this week 


     

    Wave Two Continues

     4/6/2026

    Wave Two up i major stock indexes continues, not done yet.

    The move up in bond yields has been slow but is on track

    No comment on oil or silver I have no positions there.  

    Sunday, April 5, 2026

    Wave two Completing

     4/5/2026

    I ran a comment that one fund manager looks at the WMT versus luxury goods indicator. When  WMT was outpacing luxury, often a recession looms. I tried that with LVMH but it is too erratic a stock, boy how is it, so i used Ralph Lauren RL  really a more broad based consumer oriented firm I own RL polos but nothing from LVMH. 

     

    WMT began to outpace RL in late 2025. This makes sense as  the NDX roped 10/29/2026 and then the SOX 1/28/2026 and INDU 2/10/226. Once time passed 2/10 the move up accelerates, amazing how this stuff works, eh?

    WMT has doubled in the last two years and is still climbing.  Daily has sold off and looks like a bottom Dillards DDS  has been aspectacular performer and is now bottoming

    Other candidates include Starbucks SBUX,  Tractor Supply TXCO,  Home Depot HD has not turned up yet but bears watching. It could be that all these are good buy and write a call option for income and protection. 

    okay how about XRT the retail ETF


     

    RSI at top is rising and the slower PMO at bottom  is as well. The MAs have crossed, sure looks like a bottom. 

    the majors suggest retail is just having its own Wave Two, we shaell see this week.  

    Now let's look at the majors


     INDU in large panel looks like a Wave Two counter trend will fail at the 50 day MA. 200 MA is trending down, same for SPX and NDX top and bottom.

    Media is now referring to this as Trump's War, Peggy Noonan in her weekend column makes the case Trump olays this like a real estate deal quoting from Art of the Deal. Shes right and it  is not reassuring.  Why he chose to do this before the mid-terms,well,  Republicans are worrying. 

    I will keep uodating frequently as it looks like a turn to the downside.  

     

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