The Basin and the Mid Terms

 4/17/2026

The Basin and the Mid-terms

 

Never get involved in another person’s political race.  Never make an enemy if you can avoid it,  

Sound Advice from Andrews County Judge Roy D. Bennet, 1978

President Trump regularly ignores this sound advice at every opportunity.  It could spell big trouble for the energy rich Permian Basin in the mid-terms.  Let’s take a look.

Trump delights in his belief that a personal endorsement sprinkles immediate success on its lucky designee. Consider  his embrace of Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race in 2022.  Raphael Warnock won with 51.4% to Walker’s 48.6%. It was the only Democrat statewide victory in 2022.

Vice President J D Vance doubled down on this kind of bet by traveling to Hungary to campaign for Viktor Orban. Orban conceded defeat three hours after the polls closed. The winner’s party took 137 of the 199 seats in the Parliament.

Another recent foray was pressuring Texas Governor Abbott to re-draw the electoral map. On cue, Democrat controlled states did the same.

There is not enough space in the column to compile a complete Trump Enemies List.  In the US, Trump continues to threaten Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even trying to indict him for the cost of a new building. Never mind it is built with FED not US money.  He fires Attorney General and former personal lawyer Pam Bondi for not pursuing his enemies. Gee ,who wants that job?

Overseas, Trump has been in overdrive.  Canada is the US 51^st state. Greenland is ours. The EU has not stepped up on his unannounced military conflict in Iran. A friend to this point, Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni is criticized for not sending warships to the Arabian Gulf.  And not to be out done, Trump criticizes Pope Leo for being soft on crime and catering to liberals. Catholics were supporting Trump.

With crude oil trading around $90, and gasoline over $4.00, Democrats propose taxing big oil for windfall profits n the Iran crisis.

Polymarket has the midterm election as a 56% chance the Democrats take the Senate and 86% the House.  The point is that given this environment, a Democrat take over does not offer bode well for the energy industry.

The SPX, NASD, and NDX have hit new highs. This seems to negate the idea that tops are in place for the major stock markets. Given the military action in Iran and higher energy prices, this is hard to process, but here we are. Perhaps the seasonal end of the November to May rally will provide more answers.

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