Clouds on the Horizoh

 4/10/2026

Clouds on the Horizon

The US and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, but economic warfare is here to stay.

Iran flexes Its Muscles, WSJ today

If one had no knowledge of the last few weeks, reading the press reports today would give on no clue as to the Israel and US attack on Iran. Now Iran wants to run a ‘toll booth’ on ships crossing the Hormuz Strait. Worse, Trump suggested the US and Iran might partner on this, an idea  the White House later denied.

There is a parallel to the US situation in 1973-74. The Stock Market had just hit new highs, then as now.  Interest rates were rising. The country was reeling from the energy shock of the first Arab embargo. The President was unpopular with the press and the country was politically divided. Nixon had a written enemies list. The Democrats finally pounced on the accidental admission Nixon taped Oval Office conversations. Nixon never recovered finally resigning rather than face impeachment. History never exactly repeats but consider recent events.

·      During a Ford plant visit January 13, trump replied to an auto worker comment with a vulgar hand gesture and a four-letter comment. Trump later rejects Ford’s plea for aluminum tariff relief.

·      Trump fires AG Bondie for failing to legally pursue his enemies.

·      On Easter Sunday Trump referred to Iran as ‘crazy bastards’ again invoking vulgar remarks regarding the Hormuz Strait. Yes, the same country he suggested partnering with a week later to share Hormuz tolls.

·      Trump threatens to wipe out the entire Iranian civilization.

·      On cue, Democrats file articles of impeachment against both President trump and SecDef Hegseth.

·       For good measure, Democrats call for the President’s removal via the 25^th Amendment.

In 973, the markets held up for several months and then began a relentless trudge to a 50% loss at Dow 577 by December, 1974.

All this has a familiar ring to me. Few if any of today’s financial advisors experienced this negative bout of social mood.

The stock market has managed a re-bound from the ‘military attack’ sell-off of 10%. It is remarkable that the markets are this high amid $100 oil. While August oil futures trade in the low $80s, uncertainty about the Middle East remains even higher than usual.

 The six weeks of military action have ended. Republicans facing mid-term elections have apparently begged for a halt in the fighting. And so here we are.

Thirty-year bond prices have fallen from 1181 to 112 and like stocks, have rebounded a  couple of points. It It is hard to see the FED justifying a rate cut amid $100 oil prices. That oil price uncertainty is likely to last for some time.

Trump mis-took the ease of removing Venezuela’s Maduro with  re-making a 6,000 year-old Persian Empire.

Caution is advised.