Sunday, April 5, 2026

Wave two Completing

 4/5/2026

I ran a comment that one fund manager looks at the WMT versus luxury goods indicator. When  WMT was outpacing luxury, often a recession looms. I tried that with LVMH but it is too erratic a stock, boy how is it, so i used Ralph Lauren RL  really a more broad based consumer oriented firm I own RL polos but nothing from LVMH. 

 

WMT began to outpace RL in late 2025. This makes sense as  the NDX roped 10/29/2026 and then the SOX 1/28/2026 and INDU 2/10/226. Once time passed 2/10 the move up accelerates, amazing how this stuff works, eh?

WMT has doubled in the last two years and is still climbing.  Daily has sold off and looks like a bottom Dillards DDS  has been aspectacular performer and is now bottoming

Other candidates include Starbucks SBUX,  Tractor Supply TXCO,  Home Depot HD has not turned up yet but bears watching. It could be that all these are good buy and write a call option for income and protection. 

okay how about XRT the retail ETF


 

RSI at top is rising and the slower PMO at bottom  is as well. The MAs have crossed, sure looks like a bottom. 

the majors suggest retail is just having its own Wave Two, we shaell see this week.  

Now let's look at the majors


 INDU in large panel looks like a Wave Two counter trend will fail at the 50 day MA. 200 MA is trending down, same for SPX and NDX top and bottom.

Media is now referring to this as Trump's War, Peggy Noonan in her weekend column makes the case Trump olays this like a real estate deal quoting from Art of the Deal. Shes right and it  is not reassuring.  Why he chose to do this before the mid-terms,well,  Republicans are worrying. 

I will keep uodating frequently as it looks like a turn to the downside.  

 

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