DOW Averages have All Topped

 8/31/2026

 

These are six month charts. All three Industrials, Transports, Utilties have topped.  Utilities are really pressed with interest rates moving higher. It is time to add bear funds SH, PSQ HDGE

Fianncial Movies to Watch

Monday 8/31/2026

 

The Smartest Guys in the Room is free on Amazon prime.  Narrated by Peter Coyote, it has aqctual footage of the Enron execs. This is a must to understand the motivation for the SARBOX act. 

Margin Call is a look at the 2008 sub prime crisis, available for rent on Amazon.

The  Big Short  is very well based on the true story of the outsiders who saw the sub-prime crisis coming and profited from it, great acting by Christian Bale who played race driver Ken Miles in Ford vs Ferrari.

War Dogs uses the names of two guys who tried to game the Pentagon bidding system for war supplies in the Mid-East. A zany story but quite accurate. 

Ethics and Classics

The Godfather  I and II is on  Paramount Plus. Now 50 uyears old, hard to believe, much more than a gangster movie, classic scenes and lines.

Casablanca, the classic on every ten best movies ever list, again classic scenes and lines 

 

The Debt Bomb, Already at 1981 Levels

 8/31/2026

 

 

 

The brown line is the percentage of US govt revenue that the interest cost represents. Even at relatively low rates compared to 1981,  the US is already at 1981 levels of interest cost versus revenue.

this chart also very well illustrates the 39 year cycle from 1981 to March 2020. Since then the downtrend line for 39 years has been broken, rates are on the rise,  It will not matter how clever Fed Chair Marsh thinks he is there is no stopping this.  

 

Read the story here 

Accountng and Business Certifications

 8/31/2026

1/14/2026 original post

The decisions senior and graduate accounting make and DO NOT MAKE at this time will determine their career destiny the rest of their lives. I maintain that independent certifications have trumped masters degrees. I begin with what I would call intro certifications. These are attainable by an accounting student with application to the study material. They consist of one exam.

Certified Internal Audit Practitioner

 https://www.theiia.org/en/certifications/iap/

Financial and Managerial Accounting Associate

 https://www.imanet.org/en/IMA-Certifications/FMAA-Certification

 https://www.gleim.com/fmaa-review/

_______________________________ 

Now we move on to the far more difficult multi-part exams.  

Gleim offers free downloads on several exams so I am linking to them 

They are free and quite informative 

Certified Public Accountant - the Granddaddy of certs CPA

 https://www.gleim.com/cpa-review/exam-guide/

San Antonio CPA Chapter

 https://www.tx.cpa/sanantonio/about

Certified Internal Auditor CIA

 https://www.theiia.org/en/certifications/cia/

 https://www.gleim.com/cia-review/resources/cia-certification/

San Antonio Chapter

 https://www.theiia.org/en/chapters/united-states/texas/san-antonio/

Certified Management Accountant  CMA

 https://www.imanet.org/en/IMA-Certifications/CMA-Certification

 https://www.gleim.com/cma-review/about-cma-certification/

San Antonio Chapter

https://sanantonio.imanet.org/home?ssopc=1

Enrolled Agent EA

 https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/enrolled-agents/enrolled-agent-information

 https://www.gleim.com/enrolled-agent-review/about-ea-exam/

San Antonio Chapter

 https://txsea.org/Jalapeno_Chapter

Certified Information Systems Auditor CISA 

 https://www.isaca.org/credentialing/cisa

 https://engage.isaca.org/sanantoniochapter/about/aboutchapter

Certified Valuation Analyst CVA

 https://www.nacva.com/cva

Certified Fraud Examiner 

 https://www.acfe.com/cfe-credential

San Antonio Chapter

 https://acfesanantonio.org/

Certified Government Financial Manager CGFM 

 https://www.agacgfm.org/cgfm-certification/

San Antonio Chapter

 https://alamoareacouncilofgoverments.docu.team/mtiodew/index.php?store=12423

In case you wonder if my list is really complete I am listing the following sites 

and as a sign of our times, yes there really is

Certified Divorce Financial Analyst

 https://institutedfa.com/about-cdfa-course/

 Best Accounting Certifications in 2026

 https://thecfoclub.com/career/best-accounting-certifications/

 ttps://www.indeed.com/career-advice/career-development/accounting-certifications

 https://www.accounting.com/certifications/overview/

 https://big4accountingfirms.org/accounting-certifications/

___________________

AMA Certified Professional in Management 

 https://www.amanet.org/certified-professional-in-management/

American Marketing Association / Professional Certified Marketer

 https://www.ama.org/credentialed-learning/

Computer Certifications

ISACA 

As of 6/23/2026 I count 9 different certifications

 https://www.isaca.org/enterprise/training-and-credentialing

Finance 

Certified Financial Planner does not entitle one to do anything in particular 

It was actually created after the failure of Chartered Life Underwriter to gain much traction

This is a certification held by many who sell securities or are in the financial planning business

In and of itself it does not entitle one to do anything

FINRA.org

Security Industry Exams

These took the place of what were known as the NASD security exams

These exams are necessary to hold various position in the securities industry 

 https://www.finra.org/registration-exams-ce/qualification-exams

 

 

'  

 

 

What to Know about the Current Tariff Wars

 Monday 8/31/2026

 A tariff, or import tax, is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer. Exceptionally, an export tax may be levied on exports of goods or raw materials and is paid by the exporter. Besides being a source of revenue, import duties can also be a form of regulation of foreign trade and policy that burden foreign products to encourage or safeguard domestic industry.^[1] Protective tariffs are among the most widely used instruments of protectionism, along with import quotas and export quotas and other non-tariff barriers to trade.

Detailed tariff discussion here 

 

Negative Mood Rises at North Border 

__________________

Mary O'Grady's  8/31/2026 WSJ column,on Canada Tariff War

 

Is President Trump secretly working for Canada’s Liberal Party? You could be forgiven for thinking so after the failure of trade talks with Ottawa sent support soaring for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s handling of the matter. If there’s one thing conservative Canadians dislike more than the sniveling lefties running their federal government, it’s the bombastic Mr. Trump.

In one poll some 76% of Canadian respondents said Mr. Carney was right to end negotiations with the U.S. on Aug. 21, even though it led to new Trump tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian imports. Mr. Carney says Canada will retaliate with its own tariffs, to take effect Sept. 8. Mr. Trump has countered with a threat to impose 50% tariffs on all car and truck imports from Canada starting Jan. 1.

On Thursday the U.S. president said he is changing the name of Lake Ontario in federal records to Lake America. That’ll show ’em who’s boss. But Canada has its own ideas about how to inflict pain. Mr. Carney says his tariffs will be aimed at states in play in the midterm elections. Republicans are forewarned.

Both sides know a trade war is bad for their own economies. It’s a good bet both sides will find ways to climb down—eventually. But the story won’t end there.

Mr. Trump has done serious damage to U.S. credibility by picking a senseless fight with a neighbor, ally and important trade partner. For decades Washington has used trade agreements to help American farmers and manufacturers gain access to foreign markets, to develop international supply chains that boost competitiveness, and to enhance consumer choice and affordability. If those agreements can be abrogated unilaterally by the commander in chief, who’s going to trust Uncle Sam?

Mr. Trump didn’t like the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. In 2020 he replaced it with his own U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Now he doesn’t like that. He’s desperate to blow it up but needs someone to blame.

The U.S. president says Canada is the worst country on earth when it comes to negotiating trade. Translation: It’s a little democracy that won’t knuckle under to his second-term tariff hikes. This is hurtful to a frail ego. It can’t go unanswered.

The trouble started in February 2025 when the administration used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to announce tariffs on imports from Canada, claiming the country was a major source of fentanyl coming into the U.S. That was absurd. Mr. Trump seemed to admit it soon after, when he exempted most imports from Mexico and Canada that complied with the USMCA’s “rules of origin.”

Mr. Trump also invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, claiming threats to national security, to impose duties on steel, aluminum, a variety of metals “derivatives” (e.g., heavy industrial machinery and hardware, farm equipment, and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning units), autos and auto parts except those complying with the USMCA. Then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to the Trump tariffs, announcing new tariffs and quotas on U.S. goods entering Canada, including autos. The trade war was on.

In October 2025, Mr. Trump, again using Section 232, put more tariffs on Canada. Upholstered furniture, cabinets and vanities from the north weren’t about to invade. But Mr. Trump was daring Congress to stop him. It did nothing.

In February the Supreme Court told the president that IEEPA didn’t give him the power to impose tariffs. That hasn’t kept him from abusing other trade powers delegated by Congress.

Mr. Carney has been more circumspect. Until now he has responded to Trump tariffs with subsidies for domestic producers and a buy-Canadian initiative. Yet while Canadian provinces stopped importing American wine and spirits, Ottawa hasn’t imposed new tariffs. Canada has retained protection in autos and in dairy, which wasn’t part of the retaliation. But in an effort to de-escalate the conflict last summer, Mr. Carney reversed other retaliatory duties.

The provinces haven’t been so conciliatory. They have refused to restart purchases of American alcohol. The Trump administration has felt the heat from American producers. “U.S. wine exports to Canada fell 78% year over year, driving a $357 million loss in export value,” the Wine Institute said in March. The U.S. accuses Canada of discriminating against American products. In July, invoking the never-before-used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, it said it would impose new tariffs on a range of Canadian goods.

It’s left to the American business community to explain to Mr. Trump the harm he’s doing and that his obsession with the trade deficit with Canada, caused by energy imports, is misplaced. If that message gets across, there’s hope. Until then, Mr. Carney might want to thank Mr. Trump for the political assist.

Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.

______________________

 Trump reached back to the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 to create more tariffs on Canada. 

Back then 1,000 economists warned Herbert Hoover not to sign it into law. He did lengthening the Depression. It would take until the 1947 Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GATT to remedy thesituation. 

One can argue that helped usher in the bull market of 1948-1966.

 

 

John Ruskin on Quality

 8/30/2026

There is hardly anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse and sell a little cheaper, and the people who consider price only are this man's lawful prey.

— John Ruskin
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/john_ruskin_395451 

IMA Chapter Meeting

 8/30/2026

Welcome back to school zones and the end of summer!

San Antonio chapter is pushing forward into September.

Our next meeting is Wednesday, September 16th, featuring two great topics: Emotional Authenticity: Improving Relationships at Work AND at Home! with Emilee Tucker — as seen on TEDx — and IMA Ethics: Change & Ethical Responsibilities with Mike Lovelace, CMA.

In addition, September is our College Accounting Students' Night (potentially with students from St. Mary's, Trinity, Incarnate Word, A&M SA and UTSA!) and we'll once again have a professional photographer doing headshots for your LinkedIn profile, etc. Same time, same place: Join us in person from 5:30–8:00 p.m. Central or virtually from 6:00–8:00 p.m. Central. In-person attendees will meet at Kinected Coworking on I-10, across from USAA.

[Google Maps] | [Apple Maps]

Details and registration link on our chapter home page: https://SanAntonio.IMAnet.org. 

Thanks!

Mike Lovelace, CMA

Chapter President

 

The Highs are In

 Weekend 8/30/2026

All major stock stock indexes have topped. Here is the NDX, tech led on the way up and will on the way down.

 ON the 2 bar per day chart we have a wave one down and two up, the high of June has not been taken out. And the NDX has started down. I was thinking the real sell-off would be delayed until after Labor Day but Trump is doing everything he can to arouse negative social mood

Canadians are not buying US goods

Canada sayys NYET to US 

Hegseth has to be told not to extend Iran war 

Trump attempts to re name Lake Ontario

Canada talks to Trump in four letter words  - I do not ever recall this happening in my lifetime and I am not a young person

Bessent struggles to cover for Trump 

I lived thru the bear market of 1973-74, this reminds me of the negativity of the Watergate era, which was a 50% decline in stocks. and that was among the blue chips

 I saw a comment on the internet, NVDA can't play the shell game forever

Check out NVDA's debt load this reminds me of everyone buying dot.coms and sub-orime mortgages and we know how that turned out

Since March the 30 year yield is up from 4.6% to 5.2 % and was 5.3%, yikes, the 1970s were the final period of ultra high rates peaking in 1981, again same thing all over again, the WSJ was agog over Marsh comments at Jackson Hole, he won't stop what is happening it is way too early in the 39 year cycle

 What do WMT IBM AAP Advanced Auto Parts and DKS Dicks Sporting Goods have in common

Answer air pocket one day drops of  9-25%, investors will not accept anything but outstanding performance, another clue of a top

s I said in my column Friday, what is wrong at WMT, surely as reliable economic indicator as anything?

Get ready for a big change, I am still getting e mails telling me stocks are a bargain.... 

Oil Prices Quiet on the Eastern Front

 8/28/2026

Oil is Quiet on the Eastern Front

 

The last couple of weeks this column suggested the recent high of $90 and low of $70 would average the oil price around $80. In the last five trading days West Texas Intermediate WTIC has fallen from $86 to $80 and as I write Friday back to $82.59.  Doomsday predictions of $150 oil have not happened. The reason is that there have been other ways to get oil out of the Middle East than through the Hormuz Strait.

The major stock indexes have not made higher highs so far.  The Magnificent Seven tech stocks only sport one new high. Nvidia NVD announced better than expected earnings sending the stock up for  a $442 billion dollar stock gain. Palantir PLTR did make a new high.  IT seems to be the sole new high among this most reported about chip sector.

The  SOX semi-conductor sector has moved sideways the last two months. In round numbers, at 12,000 it is below its June high of 14,500.

It is a week until Labor Day. The seasonal lows of October will follow. Then we will have a clearer  picture of what is happening.

Four stocks have notched a record.  IBM, Walmart WMT, Advanced Auto Parts AAP, and Dick’s Sporting Goods DKS have all dropped 9-20% in one day the last few months. Walmart is a far better indicator of the real overall economy than any chip stock. It has fallen from $135 to $103 since mid-May. WMT has gapped down around $7 twice since May. A gap is a blank spot on the graph where no trading occurs. The price had to fall further to fill buy orders. What is wrong at WMT?

There are a couple of markets that bear watching more than the cheerleading for chip stocks. The first is the bond market. Global debt has passed $350 trillion. That is 305% of global gross domestic product. The yields on ten-year government bonds in France, Italy, the UK and Spain have had greater increases than the US since June. Governments of more established economies are expected to borrow another $18 trillion this year. Our long-term prediction of higher interest rates continues to ring true.

A second market has also expanded beyond probable future long term demand. That is the higher education market in Texas public universities. Now Governor Abbott cales for a three-year university degree even as schools add more floor space. It is already possible to earn 60 credit hours of community college work while in high school. If done, that mean a two-year degree is already with us. Enrollment is up at large schools in Texas but declining birth rates, shorter college credit hours, and a new focus on vocational training may impinge on further enrollment growth.

Professorelam.blogspot.com

 

 

The Blog Is Back

 

8/27/2026

 

All technical issues have been resolved. I will have an updated yes as we were a month ago, comment this weekend, thanks for staying with me, the blog is back on track.  It was a simple fix and I finally found a guy to help me, he stpotted it quickly.

All In for Stocks

 8/27/2026

All In for Stocks

 

The Sell Off Begins

Weekend Aug 22, 2026

There isa clear five wave decline from the early august high in the INDU. I suspect we have more rebound this next week. Social Mood turning negative. WMT and Advance Auto Parts reported slower sales growth Thursday, WMT tumbled 9.2% and AAP 25%, In a bear market all news is bearish, this shows a shift in mood from bull to sideways with various worries to down. Shades of Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act the talks between Canada and the US fell apart, that did not take long, Canada promises toretaliate. Trump said he did not want to be Herbert Hoover but so far he is following the Hoover playbook wiht tariffs, for no good result. Again, negative mood is spreading. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/economy/policy/articles/canadian-prime-minister-suspends-trade-034817957.html On the two hour chart, the 30 year T bond yield is following the 50 bar moving average shall we say to a T. The 39 year cycle bottomed in March 2020. Now with $40 T in debt, corporations in debt for AI adventures, municipalities in debt, the trend in yields is up. Bessent was just plain silly claiming to buy back more bonds, it simply took yields to the bottom of the current trending envelope.

Not So Distant Early Warning

Friday Aug 21, 2026 Not so Distant Early Warnings Walmart WMT reported its weakest sales growth in six years. This more than suggests consumer spending is slowing. The market took WMT shares down 9.2% on the day. That dropped the price weighted DOW by 704 points Thursday. WMT’s on-line business rose 5.1% for the year while in store sales declined 2.5%. Sounds like $4 gasoline is taking its toll on in person shopping. Advance Auto Parts AAP reported declines in store sales. That took its whares down 24.5% on the day. Beauty company Coty also had slower sales dropping its shares 9.2%. Moderna soared over 170% on good news for its cancer drug, and then dropped 23% on profit taking. Those betting the stock would fall in price scrambled to buy back those shares. Stock indexes appear to have made highs of some significance in recent days, and this year. A few examples include semi-conductor SOX June 22, DOW August 5, and SPX and NSE August 13. Intra-day the INDU has fallen from 54,750 after gapping up in early August to about 52,750 yesterday. That drop filled a few gaps on the way up earlier this month. The bigger news was something readers have been alerted to for several years in this space. thirty-year Treasury bond yields spiked over 5.3%. Beholden to his boss, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a silly ‘buy back’ increase of $2 billion. But he has note money to buy anything, only the ability to issue more debt. Those ignoring the 39-year bond cycle of interest rates have assigned the cause in rate increases to the Iran conflict, debt issued by AI companies, the increase in oil prices, and well you name it. These are the qualitative events that confirm the rate bottom in March 2020 with ten-year Treasuries yielding a haf percent. Today that yield is 4.7%. There is not realistic chance of Trump’s demand for lower interest rates. Brent crude, the international benchmark, now trades at $93.37, can an even $100 be far off? This of course strengthens Putin’s position in the Ukraine conflict. And Iran, despite all the attacks, stands firm dealing with Oman, despite Trump’s threats to attack Oman as well. The season influence of a weak fall for stock prices is taking hold. Analysis of mid-term elections going back to the 19690 suggests a 7% draw down in stock prices. But the $40 trillion debt dollars overhangs it all. All financial crises start with the inability to pay back borrowed money. And so here we are ,awash in government debt of all kinds. www.lprofessorelam.blogspot.com

Treasury Yields Rebound after Foolish So Caled Buy Back

8/20/2026 The White House cotinually tells us how smart Tsy Secy Bessent is. Earlier this week he announced a doubling of bond re-purchses, the idea being to reduce interest rates. No doubt he was trying to please Trump but this is not how the bond market works. The only thing Bessent has to buy with is more debt. So bond yieds rose today. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/bond-yields-edge-higher-as-traders-digest-treasury-debt-buyback-plan.html Oil is now nort of $88, Trump's calls for lower interest rates are truly bizzare given that energhy price, not tomention the headlines about $70 t in debt. Eaity Markets are beginning to sell off. I will update charts after Friday close. It appears at least a short term top for euities is finally forming.

Summer Doldrums Continue

Wed Aug 19, 226 sort of positive, again the resolution will have to wait until after Labor Day

Trump said today that if the economy is good interest rates should go down The man understands noting about credit markets only paniced about Mid Terms the long term 39 year cycle for interest rates is up, not down.

Markets do not Top All At Once

Tuesday August 18, 2026 The NDX topped June 2.

The SOX semi-conductor index topped June 22

SOX is falling faster but point is that the techs lead on the way up and will likely do so on the way down. See the WSJ front page article about hedge fund Situaltional Awareness. Six Crucial Days on Wall Stret Brought it to the Brink Situational was riding high until it was not and had to sell its stake in Anthropic, the big IPO to come, to stay afloat. Buyers realized just that, no one would sell the biggest deal yet to come unless they had to, and Situational had to. Archegos a few years back was not so lucky, they had nothing to sell. Point is, the canary in the coal mine is singing, there will be more Situationals. At market tops successful firms get sued, previously by the FEDS RCA in 1929, IBM in 1966, MSFT in 1999, that was the FEDS, all at or near market tops Now trial lawyers and state AGs are doing this to Meta and Google, hoping for a 1990s type tobacco bonanza Social media addiction, really, read about it here https://nypost.com/2026/03/26/business/meta-google-face-big-tobacco-like-reckoning-after-social-media-addiction-verdicts/ This is all addting up to a August Sept market top. More each daythis week.

Tony Romo - Hire a Driver!

8/18/2026 Tony Romo former Cowboy football player, had a 10 year $180 M contract to call NFL games for CBS. Now video footage of him arrested for DWI is being shown. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/aug/18/tony-romo-cbs-nfl-future?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us I do not understand why celebrities with so much to lose do not have a livery service or full time driver for themselves. Romo is hardly alone in this category. Keifer Sutherland arrest record, He was the star of the hit TV series 24, with a 5 eyar $35M contract https://okmagazine.com/p/kiefer-sutherland-arrest-history-complete-timeline/

two weeks left in summer

8/17/2026 the market continues to meander, did a top occur already, I dunno, I will not be fooled by the ok big word vissitudes of the summer, confirmatino awaits after Labor Day stay tuned

August 14, End of the Week

8/14/2026 Applied Materials AMAT and the SOX index are both testing the underside of their 50 day moving averages. I suspect that test will fail and the prices will fall.

Various indexes like SPX ae eeking out new highs, as said this morning7,880 looks like a target for SPX it closed at 7806. this oil chart demonstrates what I mentioned in the weekly newspaper column published this morning on the blog, Trump had the low energy price until Feb 28 when he attacked Iran.

Cracks in the Enamel?

Friday Aug 14, 2026 Retail sales slip https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/retail-sales-slump-as-consumer-spending-falters-93CH-4860660 Consumer sentiment slides, neat univ of michigan graph https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

A Memo to President Xi

Friday August 14, 2026 A Memo to President Xi To President Xi Jinping From Intelligence Staff The good news is that our program of keeping the USA off balance is working, here are examples. Domestic – The U.S. annual growth rate for the second quarter of 2026 is reported at 1.5%, reflecting a slowdown from the previous quarter's growth of 2.1%. We attribute this to the confusing and frequent changes in his tariff policies. These have caused multi-billion dollar write-offs in major industries such as autos. North America – Casting aside the USMCA US Mexican Canadian Agreement of 2020, Trump wants to again re-write another trade agreement. This has Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney negotiating with us, China, for more trade. Mexican trade remains fairly strong except for the unrestrained violence caused by US domestic drug use. Europe - Apr 2, 2026 · President Donald Trump disparaged NATO on Wednesday, threatening to walk away from the 32-nation defense bloc over its response to the war in Iran. This leaves Europe scrambling to ramp up defenses against a possible incursion from the East. Iran – “The Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US corrects its behavior. “ This quote is from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council. The gasoline futures market, since the start of his Iran adventure, have risen from $1.80 to $3.16, an increase of 75%. He now blames his own domestic energy industry for making too much money. It is hard to imagine any action we might have taken to achieve such an increase in six months. This has increased his vulnerability in the November elections for the Congress. Losing the House of Representatives, which seems likely, will effectively shut down any further Presidential initiatives. You did inquire as to which of our programs brought these results. As far as we can tell, we did nothing. All of this happened since February 28 with no effort on our part. West Texas Intermediate trades at $81.72 as I write. Last week I suggested $80 was the average of the recent highs and lows and that is about where we are. .This is good news for the Permian Basin. The price of energy stock shares advanced. Crypto currency traders have apparently shifted to AI and semi-conductor stocks. The SOX index of semi-conductors recently fell from 14,500 to 11,000. It is now back to 12,500 which is the 50-the day moving average. Challenging that level will be an important test for the tech sector. The SPX index has jumped to 7,800. A final pop to the high 7,880s seems likely. A change in the equity markets usually starts with some fundamental event. The events since February 28 have me wondering if that will give the markets pause. www.professorelam.blogspot.com

Who do you believe?

Thursday August 13 Here is a excerpt from a wealth mangement update just today ____________ Encouragingly, sentiment reads remain constructive for the bull case precisely because they are unremarkable; bull-bear surveys register a neutral bias rather than euphoria, and bull markets tend to die on euphoria, not skepticism. Elevated money market balances continue to provide a buffer against sizable pullbacks. ___________ Okay my take, a neutral bias did not get the market to INDU54,000, the wildest most optimistic bias ever got it there. Market Vane surveys money maanagers and investors, its bullish consensus now has a 77 four week average, the highest in some thirty years, yes higher than the dot.com peak That is not neutral. SPX jumped today 7,850 or so looks like a decent target

Maximum Bullishness

wednesday August 12, 2026 Investors are more bullish than at any market high for several decades. Stocks routinely trade well into three digits, something that has not occurred before. Complacency abounds with a very quiet VIX. As said here several times, I doubt any substantial change will occur until after Labor Day. Trump has lost the game n Hormuz, page one in today's WSJ is simply that Mid East countries hve decided to accept Iran's ascendency over Hormuz rather than endure more shelling from Iran and uncertainty from Trump. I spent $30 on 87 octane today for a mere 8 gallons of gas, Trump will go into mid-terms with high gasoline prices. Bonds are certainly not ralling in price again wait for post Labor Day. All my energy picks like COP and APA have had strong rallies, regret I suggested leaving on the dip in crude to $75, Iran was still in charge. Enjoy the lazy summer, I suspect excitement into the fall.

Quality Counts

Tuesday Aug 11, 2026 Our quality differentiation has eroded, our value proposition has weakened, and we have not consistently delivered the experience customers expect from Ok now fill in the last blank this isa CEO talking about his company, what company do you think it is? Neiman Marcus, BMW, a $100 aplate steakhouse, an upscale hair salon? Uh no it is Wendy's Burger King leaps to number 2 as Wendy's closes 245 stoires. Wendy's was founded by Dave Thomas in 1969, interestingly Dave was an orphan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy's We will have a class session on Edward Deming's total quality management ideas. As Dr. Deming observed qualit is not a one time idea of the month thing, you must stick with it Actually the article reports Wendy's was number 3 world wide in 2018 so this is back to where they were

No DJT You do Not have a Hormuz Deal

8/10/2026 that is the opinion of myself, que drum roll, and Mike Pompeo, former Defense Secy as I recall. But that has not stopped DJT from claiming Hormuz is open Tell that to the enerby sector which screamed to the upsdide today. My original call was correct Iran is abn energy bull's friend as COP and APA made impressive upsdie jumps. The jumps were so impressive I can see a sligth pullback tomorrow, still a great idea. Iran and my self remain convinced DJT will see high gasoline prices right into the mid-terms. WSJ scan A couple oaid $32K for a six month carpentry class for their son which strikes me as really pricey but they also borrowed the money. A car wreck later son is alive but unable to carpenter, The 71 year old couple is still stuck with the $28K debt with nothing but SS pmts to retire the debt. How many stories are there like this or about to be? Private equity has had investor requests for a return of their money, which caused the borrowers to cap returns at less than requested. Hmm, Blue Owl has ralled form 8 to 11 but it was 24 at the start of 225, looks like a dead cat bounce to me. Point is, debt abounds and every crisis starts with a debt implosion. SPCX returned to its offer price of $135 today after soaring to 220 and dropping below 135, no lack of excitement. It occurs to me that IPO equity financing is debt with such a flourish, big things will happen. that there is not promise of repayment, we're just borrowing your money without that promise. Interest rates continue slowing advancing, so my analogy to 1973, higher energy prices and interest ates is still intact. silver moves higher but not topped out yet. In fact I do have the ability to post charts and will do so as warrants.

All time Highs

Weekend Aug 8, 2026 Micron NU is the best example of irrational exhuberance. It went from $100 april 2025 to $1,200 this sprij to $877 Friday close. INDU and SPX look close to topping out, NDX rallied Friday. Bulls are finding new reasons to buy NDVA. Yet interest rates are firm, oil is around $80, Hormuz is hardly resolved, desperate for a deal we have no idea what Trum[ will do with Iran, the job report actually went negative, Mauy's gains were cut in half. One writer claims margin debt is lower than in 1929. I think not. If one considers all the leveraged ETFs, REITs, muni funds, lots of so called solid investment are using borrowed money. three weeks lieft and August is over, and fall begins. We may have to wait u ntil post Labor Day to get resolution The Micron MU chart is below, note it has fallen from 1200 to 800 rather quickly. Bulls take this as a buy signal, I am not so sure, or is this a signal of what may happen come Sept or Oct on a wider scale.

Let's Make a Deal = Not

Friday August 7, 2026 Let’s Make Deal – Not Trump’s energy frustrations are not liable to be resolved this year. Tuesday, Trump told Fox News that the US and Iran were close to a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. He then leaped to the conclusion that would lower the price of gasoline from the current nationwide price of $4.06 to $2.50. Anyone with that much of a misunderstanding of the world-wide supply chain from crude oil to refiners to your neighborhood pump clearly does not understand the big picture. Here is reality. The last new refinery built in the United States occurred in 1977, fifty years ago. India’s Reliance Industries intends to build one this year at Port Brownsville. But US refineries are running full tilt to satisfy the demand of 65 million barrels of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumed daily. Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon, remarked that he has never seen such an imbalance of refinery capacity versus demand. Given the government’s demand for electric vehicles, refiners are in no mood to build new capacity. China was exporting 650,000 to 900,000 barrels of refined product a day. But the Iran situation has decreased supply to China. Current exports ae about 350,000 barrels a day. US inventories of crude are the lowest in 42 years. It is no surprise that refiners Marathon, Phillips 55, and Valero reported the second highest quarter earnings in four years. The conflict in Hormuz has raised energy prices so that Exxon Mobil posted a $14.5 billion profit containing $5.5 B from refining. War in the Middle East always fosters uncertainty over supply, raising price. Trump was assured by Defense (War) Secretary Hegseth the conflict would be short and easy. It has not worked out that way. It has been a volatile month for oil prices. West Texas crude traded under $70 July 6. It roared over $90 by July 23. Talk of a deal dropped the price briefly under $75. Today it trades in a wide range from $76.53 to $78.77. Jalf of the $70-90 range is $80. For lack of a better estimate, that appears to be the price for the time being. Energy stocks showing a bullish percent have dropped to 33% of total. Uncertainty does not bolster confidence in share investment. Stock indexes have hit new highs. The jobs report, surprise, today reported a loss of 23,000 jobs. May’s report of some 120,000 jobs was revised in half. The two-year Treasury note yield remains at 4.26%, way above the March low of 3.4%. Investors still weigh the massive issuance of corporate debt to finance new AI projects. Trump heads to the mid-term elections with retail gasoline prices much higher than he would like. Why start a Middle East fight in an election year? www.professorelam.blogspot.com

Not the Deal He Wanted

Thursday Aug 6, 2026 Iran and Oman are still apparenlty tlking ,yes the deal Tsy Secy ad Trump have promised would happen this week. But the outcome does not apepar to be the cone Trump wanted Crude oil closed up 2.80 to 78.02 today. I recommended exiting energy earlier this week ascrude fell to 75. With a deal to open Hormuz, it looked like more suppluy would lower price, well not yet! XLE the energy ETF rose 1.48% today. If this will be the case, Trump goes into the mid-terms with gasoline nationally at $4, here in San Antonio 87 octane is about 3.50. Since Aoril the INDU has soared from 46,00 to 54,500 or so, amazing, investors switching to the index with less not more tech stocks. The Parabolic Stop and Reverse indicator is another Wells Wilder idea of whether to ge in or out of an index or whatever. INDU is still on a buy. NDX is barely a sell as is the NASD Composite. SPX is on a buy. But as noted energy prices are higher. Markets go where they want not where we want. More tis weekend.

Energy on the Brink

8/5/2026 The XLE energy ETF dropped 2.07% today. Crude oil traded under 75 for several hours. It is now 75.22 down from the day high of 76.70. Trump's bunch kee[s talking up an Iran deal no matter how many times their Lucy snatches the football deal from them. Why? At any rate it does look like energy prices are set to drop. Energy service stocks dropped today. Patterson PTEN down 5.45%. I bought a few shares of bear energy DUG. NDX selling off but INDU spiking to a new high. SOX and NDX continues to look alike. No comment on stock direction. Still seeking solution for blog appearance.

The Stock Market Looks Like Jurassic Park

8/4/2026 3:12 CST after market close Recall that scene in Jurassic Park, richard Attenboroough is escorting Sam Neil and Laura Dern thru the park. laura is reading s a brochure in the jeep, Sam reaches and turns her head to the nearby full sized brontosaurus, Laura gapes, I feel that way looking at the end of day market numbers. NDX up 956, INDU up 907, 54,085 This is not just the reaction to AI and Hormuz, uh what Hormuz i would say but nore on that ina minute. This is the fifth of the fifth of the last read of an over heated market, see Ray Dalio previous post. SPX 7736, 8,000 is a given at this point, sure hop aboard if you can find anything at less than three digits per hundred shares. as said in the previous post, this is Oct 19807. March 2000, dotcom, and or Fall 2007 sub prime peak. All previous highs, and the following lows, have been forgotten, a socionomic feature of market highs. ______________ Energy The BPENER bullsih perent index for energy stocks has exhibited a series of lower highs sine, no surprise, the March highs following the Iran invasion. In hte last monthy the index bottomed at 15% late June, and topped at 67%, July 27. today it close dat 52.38, a big drop already. every energy stock on my page is down today. Oddly, some energy service stocks lik SLB are up, how cn this be, service is derivative of energy, not the driving force itself. So I watch from the sidelines. Oil's range today was 75.16 to 82.33, now 75.40, again taking out all recent 78 lows. The spread of junk bond yields versus AAA yields of the same maturity is widening, another sign of danger, no wonder given the billions of debt recently issued for AI 'investment.' Best guess is more new highs in stock indexes all aroound before a top is seen. It looks like Team Trump is so eager to claim some sort of Iran victory, lower oil and gasoline prices, they are likely to climb aboard any floating debris and declare victory. MOre tomorrow.

8/4/2026 Interesting article on Ray Dalio and Jeremy Grantham on the currect bubble conditions. Jsut what I have been discussing https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ray-dalio-ai-bubble-nearing-070000246.html

Desperate for a Deal

Tuesday August 4, 2026 12:37 PM CST Desperate for a Deal Tuesday August 4, 2026 West Texas Intermediate crude oil has dropped from last week’s $84 to $75.98. This is below the price hit Monday at $78. Recommendations for energy and energy service stocks are negated and withdrawn. After some of their best earnings, both Chevron and Exxon Mobile are trading lower. Energy production stocks are down across the board while, oddly some energy service stocks rose today. Here is the recent timeline. Recall that Trump ran in 2024 specifically promising sub- $3 gasoline prices. With the mid-terms looming, he is desperate for a deal. Last Friday July 31. Trump was in attack mode for Iran. Saturday evening, he reversed position, saying Saudi Arabia had asked for a respite from the attacks. Sunday, he announced more talks with Iran, promising yet another deal. Monday morning at 6:32 AM CST, Iran denied there were any negotiations taking place with the US. Oil recovered to $80 by day’s end from $78 on the market open. On Truth Social Trump demands that, with Chevron earning record profits, they lower the gasoline price. This reflects a serious misunderstanding of how the retail gasoline supply chain works but when did Trump want to study detail? The irony is that the energy industry profits, are a result of Mid-East fighting, which is always the case. War raises the specter of supply interruption and price hikes. The Administration is complaining of higher energy prices their war brought about. With Iran still denying any negotiation, Treasury Secretary Bessent (what is he doing in this mix?) declared today a Hormuz deal is only a day or two away. Amidst billions of AI debt offerings, the stock market is soaring across all indexes, especially tech related. This is a vertical rise in prices after a long bull market. Such occurrences are rare. Usually these are seen in the final run-up to a market top. Examples include highs of October 1987, the dot.com high of March 2000, and the fall peak of 2007. Caution is advised in both energy and tech related markets Dennis.elam@att.net

Tech Explosion / Energy Markets Calm

8/3/2026 Forget all those comments about the tech sector beingover heated and too high. Today all the Mag 7 stocks took off as did the SOX stocks. NDX, SOX, you name it in tech looks ready to advance, the PMO is bottoming as is RSI aand prices have turned up. The SPX has soared hundreds of points the last few days. SPX was up 110 today. Start ofa new big move up or a final buying blow out, not sure, and again this is summer where markets are most volatile. We will report, I regret the site is still constrained. Friday Trump was going to attack Iran with whatever he has left ammunition wise. Saturday night he reverses saying the Saudis had asked he to relent, he said ok Oil opens down $7 Monday, Energy and service stocks back off but not that much. Iran announces 6 32 AM CSTthat there is no negotian with the US, only with Oman. Energy and serice sell off a bit and then come back today. Markets are alwasy subject to outside noise but this is getting old, every Friday Trump seems to reverse himself or does so over the weekend. I am not comfortable with the situation, wondering if Trump's aids worried over the mid-terms, will convince Trump to take some deal, any deal to get gasoline prices down, but really a bit late for that. MY daily charts of CVX Chevron, Exxon XOM, and APA are topping. CVX great earnings did not move the stocks. I think it best to exit energy positions. More every day this week.

A Narrow Few Lead the Market

8/2/2026 At the end of bull markets, investors, aka gamblers, crowd into fewer and fewer stocks. those stocks take on outsized weight, making it appear the over all averages are doing much better than they reall are. We are there now. The S & P 500, well here you go The S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500)[6] is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. public companies, with an aggregate market cap of more than $61.1 trillion as of December 31, 2025.[2] The S&P 500 index is a public-float-weighted/capitalization-weighted index. The index is associated with many ticker symbols, including ^GSPC,.[7] INX,[8] and SPX, depending on market or website.[9] The S&P 500 is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, owned 73% by S&P Global and 27% by CME Group, and its components are selected by a committee.[4] But of tha 80% of the market cap of all public companies Half of that capitalization now consists of 5% or 25 SPX firms. As the index is capitalization weighted, the 25 now have an outsize influence on the over all index. The charts of hte bear funds like SH and PSQ have a way to go before looking like a buy. So here we are waitingfor summer to end and post Labor day to provide some clues. Of the eight major ETFs I don't see a real buy, I remain long a small number of energy service stocks. Again the big story is the increase in the ten- year treasury rate, now about 4.65%. This will eventuall weigh on stock prices as the cost of financing everything goes higher.