Black bars are the TLT and Purple is TBF the bear bond fund. I closed out my TBF position today. It is trending sideways a smidge. The turn at such junctures can be extreme so best to take a profit.
TLT is 28.25 RSI and -1.14 on PMO, I entered orders below the current TLT market price and bought a bit at the market. Bearishness is extreme.
All DOW components are trading lower, SPX NDX held up by handful of tech stocks. Patience for a break to the downside.
SPX Hourly
SPX closed below yesterday's close the last hour of trading.
I cannot tell if Arch is a humanoid type robot or just another kiosk at the drive in window, probably the latter. But after the first well this is not working, MCD is back with apparently better results.
No unions, no sick time, no failing to show up for work, no high turnover of employees, yep this is coming. Kiosks are already inside the stores.
It all reminds me of C 3PO, the humanoid robot from Star Wars.
the OHLC bars are the price of TLT a popular 20 year bond fund. It has fallen in price with the increase in bond yields. RSI at top is below 30, PMO aat bottom is approaching a bottom and turn point but not there yet. the Moving Averages, teh three colored lines, are widening showing the depth of the sell-off.
Yes there is a lot on this next chart but bear with me. I added the TBF bear fund as the purple line.
TBF has achieved a near vertical position to the upside, the opposite of TLT to the downside.
Conclusion, we will shortly need to exit TBF and add TLT for a rally in bonds which could last a month or so.
This ratio chart of Hedge, bear, vs INDU bull, looks like the month long rally where Hedge outpaced the DOW is tiring. PMO and RSI, bottom and top are, well, toppy.
SPX Hourly
This hourly chart of the SPX looks more like it wants to go up than down.
This makes little sense with so many variables, mid terms, oil prices, interest rates but here we are.
If the parallel to 1987 and 1929 is going to hold to any degree, the decline needs to resume.
There is a small gap down at the start of trading today in teh SPX. We have a lower high than in August, RSI and PMO are trending down.
DJI
Lacking the tech heavy status of the NDX and SPX the INDU is leading the way down, more weakness should be ahead.
10 Yr Treasury Yield
It is amazing that the stock market is so calm in the face of rising rate, 5.24% on the ten year. TBF our bear bond fund is at the bottom panel. We have recommended TBF for some time. I expect we need to exit with a profit. If in fact stocks sell off as imagined, money will flow to short term and longer term bonds, that flight to safety thing.
T Note vs SPX
T Notes made a new low today, lower right. Stocks, SPX, are weakening, this gap will be remedied.
More tomorrow, again we expect stocks to continue to sell off.
OpenAI and Anthropic are the Mercedes and BMW of artificial intelligence. No, not because they’re expensive and vulnerable to cheap imports from the Far East. And not because they exude obnoxious “The Best or Nothing” and “The Ultimate Driving Machine” Teutonic attitudes. Instead, they share a growing fear of liability.
Some background: There are various levels of autonomous driving. In Level 2, AI controls the steering and speed, but drivers must keep their hands on the wheel and watch the road. Tesla’s oxymoronically named Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is Level 2. What we really want is Level 3: read a book, watch TikTok, text a friend while driving, but be ready to take over if asked. Waymo and robo-taxis are Level 4, driverless in limited geography and weather.
Both BMW and Mercedes received approval in Germany in 2024 for eyes-off Level 3 driving. This year, both paused their rollout in favor of driver-at-the-ready Level 2, citing costs. I’m convinced the real reason is liability. The most likely outcome in court is that if a Level 2 autonomous car crashes, it’s the driver’s fault, while if a Level 3 car crashes, it’s the carmaker’s fault.
Back to AI. With the recent hubbub about agents escaping containers and human extinction and guardrails and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s “We must pace the frontier,” I advise ignoring the noise and filtering everything through the question: Who’s liable?
In August, I suggested that AI companies are “covered by common-law fiduciary responsibility.” I think they’re finally figuring this out. No frontier AI lab is going to slow down with Chinese open-weight models breathing down its neck. Yet Mr. Amodei is calling for regulation and “embedded evaluators who have employee-like access to verify safety practices.” OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Elon Musk quickly agreed. I doubt they really want this; it’s more likely so they have someone else to blame.
In Netflix’s rhetoric-filled documentary, “The AI Doc,” Mr. Amodei declares, “It’s up to all of us to push for the government to get involved.” I’m always suspicious of entrepreneurs who beg to be regulated or demand antitrust exemptions to collude with competitors. Why? Because regulations would shift or even limit liability. Best to have a government safety seal, the thinking goes, so that if something goes wrong, we can simply blame regulators and the government. “Hey, our model was declared safe by AI Force!” Remember when the regulated Silicon Valley Bank still spectacularly blew up?
I asked venture capitalist Joe Lonsdale for a course of action. He told me, “These companies should be held extremely liable for any damage they do. But we shouldn’t be putting regulators in. They’re just going to get captured.”
I’m with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on AI models. He said, “If you’re not confident in its functionality, capability or safety, then don’t release it.” But safety training for AI models is expensive. OpenAI calculates that a new monitoring system it set up after news that its agents left a testing sandbox this summer could add 20% to its compute costs.
Why spend on safety when it seriously cuts into your profit margins? Let me offer a quick answer: 18 U.S. 1030, the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act of 1986. Yes, we already have laws against hacking and cybercrime, although Mr. Lonsdale also told me, “New AI-specific legislation, such as on children, privacy and transparency, is reasonable to consider.” He’s right.
But instead, AI critics call for regulation and data-center moratoriums and yell, “But Hugging Face!” pointing to OpenAI agents “escaping” (actually, the sandbox door seems to have been left open) and hacking the AI development platform’s servers.
How about doing this? “Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg said regarding the company’s new AI personal agent. “We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us.” And Meta’s cash. The company settled lawsuits, with no admission of wrongdoing, for $18 billion over teen social-media addiction in August. It’s getting a lot smarter about liabilities.
OpenAI and Anthropic are learning fast. But they need to create safe products rather than calling for the nanny state to clean up their messes. Else they’ll find themselves a part of it. Here is Palantir CEO Alex Karp on CNBC on AI companies: “The only way to deal with this kind of liability is to go to the government and say, ‘Nationalize us, please.’ ” That’s my fear, too. Even Bernie Sanders demanded only half.
Let’s instead enforce our current laws. For one offense, 18 U.S. 1030 calls for a fine or up to 10 years imprisonment. I’m not encouraging this, but a few predawn headquarter raids and you can be darn sure that AI agents won’t leave their sandboxes again. Safety first.
ere is a signal to watch for in the meantime: See if the term “funding gap” returns to the market’s vernacular. Along with “burn rate,” funding gap became part of the financial lexicon in 2000, as the dot-com bubble was starting to deflate.
Back then, burn rate measured how much cash a money-losing startup was blowing through each quarter and how many months it had left before it ran out. It was popularized by a famous Barron’s article in March 2000 that helped prick the bubble. A funding gap meant a company still needed investors to keep supplying fresh cash until it became self-sustaining—and that the chance to raise new money had already vanished.
One poster child was Pets.com. In early 2000, Ernst & Young gave the company a clean audit opinion with no warning about its ability to continue as a going concern. That was in part because it seemed able to keep raising cash from investors no matter how much money it lost. The online retailer sold products for $5 that cost $10 to buy and $50 to market. The Nasdaq was reaching new highs.
Then the market crashed, the money ran out, and the company shut down in November 2000.
Similar concepts made a comeback during the financial crisis that began in 2007, except this time with large financial institutions. A key moment arrived in November 2007, when Freddie Mac slashed its dividend and sold $6 billion of preferred stock in a desperate bid to bolster its regulatory capital amid mounting mortgage losses.
What Freddie really needed was to raise billions of dollars in common equity, which absorbs losses more effectively than preferred equity does. If even a government-sponsored enterprise couldn’t do it, that signaled it would be difficult for almost any financial-services company to raise fresh common equity to restore its capital cushion.
Some equity offerings still got done in the months after that. But those weren’t enough to offset the torrent of losses. By September 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie were placed into conservatorship, and the government was bailing out the country’s financial system.
Back to the present, the AI trade still has plenty of momentum, but early signs of nervousness have surfaced. OpenAI ruled out going public this year. Holtec Nuclear, which aims to supply small modular reactors to AI hyperscalers, this month paused its IPO plans. Anthropic, the Claude maker, pushed its planned IPO from October to November.
While those may be bumps in the road, they aren’t signaling that the capital window is closing, or at least not yet. Even if the companies don’t go public anytime soon, they still appear able to raise money in private markets. Holtec, for one, is already profitable, and has other established nuclear businesses.
But it’s hard to get a read on a company such as OpenAI or Anthropic, because their finances aren’t public and may not be for some time. All anybody on the outside seems to know is they are burning through lots of cash, with an insatiable need for more and no visible profits by conventional measures.
But if those circumstances should change, and the capital window narrows enough to create a funding gap for any of the world’s most important AI startups, the momentum behind the AI trade could quickly reverse. Once that happens, there is no telling how events may play out.
In 1987, I remember it well, bond prices peaked in March and then fell into the fall. The yield on the 30 year T Bond rose from 7 to 9% +. Meanwhile stocks rallied. Bonds would end trading at 2 00 PM Central Time. the bond sell off tempered stocks but then for the last hour they rallied.
What is going on I wondered? How can the stock market ignore such high rates happening so fast?
On Oct 19, 19087 th estock market plunged 22.6% and bonds rallied.
The 1987 stock market crash, known as Black Monday, occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by 22.6% in a single day, marking the largest one-day percentage drop in history.
Key Details of the 1987 Crash
The events surrounding Black Monday were significant and multifaceted.
Date — The crash took place on October 19, 1987, a day that became infamous in financial history.
Market Impact — The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 508 points, equivalent to a 22.6% drop, in just one trading session.
Causes — Contributing factors included program trading, economic concerns, and global trade issues, which created a perfect storm for the market's decline.
Aftermath — The crash led to significant changes in market regulations, including the introduction of circuit breakers to prevent future crashes.
I asked AI about 1987 bonds and it got some of the answer wrong saying bond yields increased at the Oct 19 crash, wrong, they decreased but it got this right
Yield Increase — The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds rose from around 7.5% at the start of the year to over 10% by the end
The end was not the end of the year but Oct 19 when bond prices boomeranged back from the yearly lows
Fast forward to 2026.
Bond price is in red stocks SPX is in green. The same thing is happening in 2026. Bond prices here the 30 year bond down all year and hard down at the end of this past week, see far right.
The other striking fact is the current dividend yield of the SPX versus the yield on the ten year treasuryu which is 5.184%.
The current dividend yield on the S&P 500 is approximately 1.05% as of recent data. This figure reflects the total dividends paid per share over the past twelve months divided by the current price of the index.
Current S&P 500 Dividend Yield
The dividend yield provides insight into the income generated by the index.
Current Yield — The S&P 500's dividend yield is currently at 1.05%, indicating a stable income from dividends.
Historical Context — This yield has been tracked since 1871, allowing for historical comparisons.
Market Trends — Dividend yields can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor sentiment.
Impact of Buybacks — The decline in yields over recent decades is partly attributed to increased stock buybacks rather than dividend payouts.
This means the Treasury yield is 4.093x times the SPX uyield. This is totally out of whack to use a fancy term. I recall in the late 1970s a fellow came by my office. He had bought Exxon which had a 10% dividend yield, as he ;put it, a pretty good deal. Historically SPX dividend yields are around 6% at market bottoms. This is no stock market bottom.
The question is, will this resolve once again with stocks selling off, crashing? and bonds rallying/
the same number of day estimate is Oct 7-8 this year, which is to say not this week coming but the week after. We shall see.
Sylvester Stallone Wrote the Script. He Wasn’t Letting Anyone Else Play Rocky.
The actor and filmmaker was dirt broke when he turned down life-changing money for the movie he wrote. He recounts betting on himself in his new memoir, ‘The Steps.’
Arnold in his book 'be useful' tells of saying no to achieve his dream of starring in movies. Here Stallone relates the same story. He had a studio buyer for his script, but he wanted to play the character. Again and again he turned down script offers, against the advice of his lawyer. Finally he got what he wanted, the rest is Rocky history.
This essay is adapted from Sylvester Stallone’s new book, “The Steps: A Memoir,” to be published on September 29, 2026, by William Morrow, a division of HarperCollins Publishers (which, like The Wall Street Journal, is owned by News Corp).
Why? Why?! This was totally insane. What was it about this simple little story about regular people looking for respect and a bit of love that got serious businesspeople to make incredible offers to a “nobody” like me?
Everyone waited for my decision in silence. I could almost hear their breathing and their watches ticking. “I have to play Rocky,” I said, and walked out of the room.
When I was young, I always wanted to be hugged by my parents. Just once. Sadly, I couldn’t seem to do anything to make that happen. I realized at some point that there was nothing I was ever going to do that would make them love me. But if I could achieve something impossible, maybe that would make them proud.
I took the long way out and walked slowly past the studio parking lot, out the front gate, and down the street, to where my junker was double-parked in front of the funeral parlor. My stomach was in knots.
On the long, twisting drive home, I was so exhausted by the turbulent conversation going on in my head. I pulled into the driveway of my little rental house and sat behind the wheel in silence. Eventually, I went inside. I got a glass of water, then the phone rang.
“Hello?” I said.
It was Herbie.
“What’s wrong?”
“You sitting down?
“It’s over, isn’t it?” I said.
“No … YOU CAN PLAY ROCKY!”
I dropped the phone, dropped to my knees and cried.
Going far beyond the original intent of Adam
Smith's metaphor, twentieth-century economists popularized the use of the term
to refer to a more general and abstract conclusion that truly free markets are self-regulating
systems that always tend to create economically optimal outcomes, which in turn
cannot be improved upon by government intervention.
Adam Smith, An Invisible Hand
Except for the fact that politicians have never and
will never, embrace the idea. Today’s
topic is the $6.5405 per gallon national average price of diesel fuel.
This cost is important for truckers, ships at sea, and
railroads all of which run on diesel. And eventually that higher price will be
reflected in higher consumer prices. Every item in every store is delivered buy
a diesel-powered truck.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has resulted in less
crude to refine. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries added to the shortage.
A Clinton era, who needs an invisible hand when we have a political one,
restriction is not helping.
Clinton’s EPA created the Diesel Fluid Exhaust System
DFE. The idea was to inject DEF into the diesel fuel system to, yes, lower
emissions. The real-world result is a mess. Filters clog, sensors break,
failure rates are high. A black-market solution was to delete the controls The
Biden administration then prosecuted those attempting to do this. Think the
Democrat favorite disincentive, fines and yes prison. Recall this is the party
of wind turbines, solar cells, and the never-ending war on fossil fuels.
The Trump administration idea is to limit or prohibit
diesel exports. The thinking is that this will increase domestic supply. Not so
fast. Gulf Coast refineries supplied 90% of distillate exports last year. This means
most of the US diesel is right there on the Gulf Coast. The two coasts tend to
import their diesel lacking pipelines to buy from the Gulf Coast.
Banning exports means storage facilities on the Gulf
Coast would quickly fill. Refiners would have to cut production not only of
diesel but of gasoline and jet fuel. The better idea would be to
-Waive Jones Act restrictions requiring US flagged
ships for transport
- Ease conflicting fuel standards requiring different
blends
- suggest China increase diesel exports
Easing permit restrictions might result in some new
refineries, the last new refinery built in the US was n 1976.
The lack of refineries has meant the big Hormuz winner
has been US refineries. Valero stock has soared from $100 last summer to $400,
now $375.
Weekly momentum charts of major stock indexes are turning
down but not yet in a truly convincing manner. Seven percent mortgages, $90
crude oil,and $40 T debt makes us
dubious a rally is at hand.
There is nothing new under the sun, as said in class and back in 914 BC.
This song dates back a Fibonacci 55 years by the time it made #7 on BIllboard.
What is my point? The lyrics are just what Arnold S. is talking and writing about. Most folks really do not know what time it is. It is time to as he says, Be Useful, set a goal, read,write, study, work towards that goal.
Chicago recorded "Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?" in 1969, and it was released as a single in October 1970.
Recording Details
Here are some key points about the song's recording.
Songwriter — The song was written and sung by Robert Lamm.
Album — It was included in Chicago's debut album, Chicago Transit Authority, released on April 28, 1969.
Release Timing — The single was released after the band had two hits from the same album, specifically in October 1970.
Chart Performance — The song peaked at #7 on the Billboard Hot 100 in early 1971.
"Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?"
As I was walking down the street one day
A man came up to me and asked me
What the time was that was on my watch
Yeah... and I said
(I don't) Does anybody really know what time it is?
(Care) Does anybody really care?
(About time) If so, I can't imagine why
(Oh no, no) We've all got time enough to cry
And I was walking down the street one day
A pretty lady looked at me
And said her diamond watch had stopped cold dead
And I said
(I don't) Does anybody really know what time it is?
(Care) Does anybody really care?
(About time) If so, I can't imagine why
(Oh no, no) We've all got time enough to cry
And I was walking down the street one day
Being pushed and shoved by people
Trying to beat the clock, oh, no
I just don't know, I don't know, I don't know-oh
And I said... yes, I said
(People runnin' everywhere
Don't know where to go
Don't know where I am
Can't see past the next step
Don't have time to think past the last one
Have no time to look around
Just run around, run around think why)
(I don't) Does anybody really know what time it is?
(Care) Does anybody really care?
(About time) If so I can't imagine why
(Oh no, no) We've all got time enough to die
Everybody's working
(I don't care) I don't care
(About time) About time
(Oh no, no) I don't care
Click to read what this is all about. Arnold fills in the blanks not included in his ten minute youtube you have to have a goal speech. He explains how he passed up mediocre opportunities in TV series to focus on his real goals in the movies. He explains the detain James Cameron went to in his $200 M Lbuidget Titanic which grossed over $1 B.
Just today I got an e mail from a student who cannot find time to participate in the class he enrolled. Arnold solution - sleep faster. You have 24 hours in a day, you are probably wasting two of them.
Be Useful Seven Tools for Life
Table of Contents (yes I have a copy it costs $1.99 on kindle)
Note, MCD dropped 4.8% YESTERDAY! this is what I mean that WMT COST LOW and now MCD are more representative of the real economy than the Mag 7 tech stocks. Or the hyperscalers doing into billion dollar debts on dubious AI wagers. From the article here is a classic 'circle the wagons' approach.
Replace President
Spend money
Grab for new technology, mention AI in publicity release, hey it works for stock prices in everywhere else
Last month the company promoted Skye Anderson to the role of president of McDonald’s USA, replacing Joe Erlinger.
Beyond store renovations they fund themselves, franchisees will receive about $8.5bn in support from McDonald’s over the next decade to help implement the strategy. The investments include deploying a generative AI platform that aims to improve efficiency and boost the average restaurant’s cash flow by $100,000, McDonald’s said.
The announcement came as franchisees had faced sluggish traffic, rising costs and pressure on restaurant profits, Gargiulo said in a note.
SPX in the top panel to demonstrate that WMT in the large panel is underperforming the overall market. Well the overall market of the Mag 7 and a few other tech wonders. ?Recall we are having mor neew lows than new highs in the SPX. Let's see if WMT can challenge the downtrend the last two days of this week.
See below. At the highest market level ever, it is appropriate that we have, quote, terror of the infinite.
As we socionomists like to say, horror is arriving right on time at a market top.
________________
Movies to watch if you liked Backrooms
While Kane Parsons' A24 blockbuster introduced many viewers to liminal-space horror, it's not the only film that explores the terror of the infinite (or the creepiest corners of the internet). Here are a few more movies to check out if you liked Backrooms:
Holmes was originally sentenced in 2022 to 11 years and 3 months in prison for defrauding investors with false claims about her company's blood-testing technology.
Her sentence has since been reduced to 10 years and 3 months, and she is now scheduled to be released on Feb. 22, 2030. According to the Victim Notification System, upon her release, Holmes will reside in Austin, Texas, and be supervised by the United States Probation Office there.
The new release date was the result of a retroactive change to federal sentencing guidelines and earned time through the First Step Act.
"To be clear, this sentence reduction does not diminish the enormity of Holmes's crimes, nor does it ignore the significant negative impact her conduct has had on the community," U.S. District Judge Edward Davila wrote in a March order granting a motion to reduce her sentence. "The hundreds of millions of dollars in losses caused by Holmes's fraud speak for themselves. And though unquantifiable, the echoes of the immense reputational damage that the innovative industry in Silicon Valley suffered as a consequence of Holmes's deception still reverberate to this day. Holmes's revised sentence continues to reflect a just punishment for her serious offense and serves as a reminder that the scales of justice will balance."
I found this in the WSJ dated tomorrow. The guy they quote at the end is clue less, this will affect the markets as we move into October. Rates, Oil prices, two wars, 040 T in debt, yeah things are great
_____________
Then at 1 p.m., the federal government’s auction of fresh 5-year Treasury notes was met with weak demand. The notes were sold at a yield well above what traders had anticipated, and bond dealers that are required to bid at auctions were forced to take down an unusually large share, pointing to a lack of interest from other potential buyers.
Investors had little interest buying bonds right when their prices were tumbling. The poor result only caused more alarm, driving yields still higher.
All in, it was the worst day in nearly 18 months for U.S. government bonds. Major stock indexes also slipped, but not as far as some traders might have expected on a day when debt benchmarks that affect rates on everything from corporate bonds to mortgages soared.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, the Nasdaq composite retreated 1.1% and the Dow industrials fell 0.7%, or 352 points.
“Risk markets seem to be handling this fairly well. It really seems to be a rate market problem,” said Scott Kimball, chief investment officer for fixed income at Loop Capital Asset Management.
I wanted to send an
updated copy of our student event handout. A misspelling was recently brought to my attention, and it has now been corrected. Please use this updated version when sharing the event with your students.
I also want to ask once again for your help in
encouraging students to attend our Finance & Accounting Career Pathways event on
Friday, September 25.
TXCPA San Antonio is investing approximately
$5,000 in this event because we believe in creating opportunities for students to connect with the accounting profession. We want as many students as possible to benefit from it!
Students will have the opportunity to meet
local accounting firms, other professional businesses, UWorld, and Becker while making valuable connections for their future.
We need students there! If possible, please:
Share the updated handout with your accounting students
Encourage them to register and attend
Consider offering extra credit for attending
Remind them that showing up and making that first connection is often the hardest part!
We truly appreciate your help in getting students through the door. The professionals participating are giving their time because they want to support
and encourage the next generation of accounting professionals.
Thank you again for your continued support of TXCPA San Antonio and our students!
My name is Jenna Mayer, and I am the Senior Vice President of the Frost Wealth Advisors Tax Department at Frost Bank. We are currently seeking talented students to fill our Fall/Spring Internship positions within the Trust Tax Department, and I wanted to reach out to explore opportunities to connect with students who may be interested.
This year-long internship provides hands-on experience in fiduciary taxation, offering interns the opportunity to learn the fiduciary tax return process from start to finish. Under the supervision of experienced professionals, interns will prepare a variety of fiduciary income tax returns, ranging from simple to more complex filings, while gaining valuable tax and trust administration knowledge.
Qualified candidates should be junior or senior-level accounting students with an interest in taxation and a desire to learn and develop their skills in a professional environment.
I would greatly appreciate any assistance in sharing this opportunity with your students and fellow faculty members who work with aspiring accounting professionals. Thank you for your time, consideration, and support in helping us connect with the next generation of tax professionals.
Thank you,
Jenna Mayer
Senior Vice President | Trust Tax - Operations Segment Manager 17 years of Frost service Frost – Banking, Investments, Insurance
In 1929 and 1987, the markets rallied into late summer. The markets then sold off for a month. A two week rally followed. Then the markets turned down eventually into a crash.
The markets appear to be nearing the end of that two week rally. The big gains early this week are being erased.
All 12 measures above are in the red. This analogy may just be far fetched, we;ll see.
Crude oil found some footing at the $90 level. Trump's threat over Iran in his UN speech have been made far far too often. Iran is surely aware of our weapons shortage,extended deployments, and other problems. Again, we'll see.
the ten yearr note rose to 5.136%, a new high for the move. Markets are aligning with higher interest rates and oil prices. see our graph of the three DOW components in the last post. Markets do not all top at the same time. SPX NASD NDX are topping at different times as well.
We will continue updating on what we think will be a substantial decline this fall, one way or the other.
CPA firms are always trying to cast aside the dreary image of tax and audit zombies. So PwC has posted an article on how they help FOrmula One with its supply chain.
Now there are 24 F1 races around the world each year. Brad Pitt just starred in an F1 movie showing the world nature of the races. F1 seems to be on board bolstering PwC's claim they know something about supply and transportation. Take a look, you decide.
Does PwC know more about this than say the maintenance department of Dubai Airlines, you tell me.
Meet the Firms Expo(accounting and finance) October 28 | Noon–3 p.m. | BLH Lobby Students an speak to individuals from organizations like Marathon Petroleum Company LP and Becker.
The SPX is within 1% of its former high. But the percentage of new lows has increased. According to Jason Goepfert of nextgennews, there have onlyu been two days before when teh SOX rallied to at least 1% to within 1% of a new high and more stocks declined to new lows than new highs. July 23, 1929 and December 21, 1999. Both dates preceded important tops in the market. First the October 1929 crash and then the dot.com high in March 2000.
Crude Oil
Trump contemplates meeting the Iran whoever guy at the UN this week.
Smaller oil firms like Apache APA are more sensitive to oil price changes. this hasw been quite the three month rally. the big winners have been the refiners, Valero VLO has jumped in this time frame from 220 to 420 and is off that high today.
Wal Mart jumped 2.49% to meet its down trend line.
Let's see if it surmounts that line this week.
For now I am still looking fora top in the markets, The DOW components of Industrials Transports and Utilities have all their highs behind them. Not bolstered by tech stocks like SPX and NDX it is sagging.
Yes the NASD has made a new high. But the internals do not confirm that. Once again a handful of tech stocks are weighted by price or capitalization and move the market to a new high.
This is a chart of new highs minus new lows The NASD index, compq, is in the lower panel. The net high low measure is right where it was in late June, about zero. Yet the index is 1,000 points higher. Breadth is lacking.
In both 1929 and 1987 the markets rallied the first half of the year and into the summer.
DJIA then fell for a month as I has this August. The DOW then rallied for a couple of weeks before turning down and crashing
Here is a comparison, cone can see the red line drop and rebound to a lower high.
Here is a better picture of 1929. The market fell into the fall, then rallied adn the fell into October.
If the parallel holds, we are now in the up move of early October. . The 10929 tme period would be offset a couple of weeks to today. This suggests a rally this week ending sometime this week.
Granted this may be far fetched but so far this is holding up
Markets rallied today but remain below the mid summer highs. My take is that once this Sept rally ends we will head down, another crash, that would be hard to predict.
Here is an up close daily graph of Oct 1929. 10/29 was crash day.
October 29, 1929, was the 302nd day of the year and it fell on a Tuesday.
Details about October 29, 1929
This date holds historical significance for several reasons.
Day of the Week — October 29, 1929, was a Tuesday.
Year Progression — It was the 302nd day of the year, with 63 days remaining.
Historical Context — This date is often associated with the stock market crash, marking the beginning of the Great Depression.
Julian Calendar Equivalent — Under the Julian calendar, this date corresponds to October 16, 1929.
Markets rallied today. But the Transports did not, there is that non confirm of the Dow Theory again.
April 26–28, 2027 | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia & Online | Earn 30+ CPEs
The issues reshaping internal audit are moving fast. At the 2027 IIA International Conference: CONVERGE, internal audit professionals from around the world will come together to explore AI, cybersecurity, geopolitical risk, regulation, and the profession's evolving expectations.
Connect with global peers, exchange perspectives, and gain insights to help you navigate what’s next.
