the $30 Burger, Whythe FED raised rates

 9/16/2026

The FED raised the overnight FED rate .25%, wow must have taken a PhD to figure that out,  

Here is a Yahoo storyon how an u[ scale burger went from $12 to 30 the last few yeears.  

Here is the two year graph on burger component prices.

 

 Let the market speak. The purple line is the 2 year t Note Yield, the black line is the 3 month bill rate, ie the FED overnight rate. All the FED did today was catch up with the other rates. 

The 2 year rate is 4.67, the 3 month bill is now 3.97. the graph does not effectively show the 2 yaer rate .7 higher but it is. All the FED ever does is chase the decision the markets have already made. 

2 Year Yield most sensitive to the FED changes

 

4.7 - 3.4 = 1.3 / 3.4 = 38 % increase since March, what actually a .5 rate increase would have been more realistic, see burger example above

To illustrate, the yield on the 2 year T note is purple, the price is black. If you bought the note last January, its price has fallen from 104.4 to 102, if you had to sell you would do so with a loss. 

 

Here is our 78 now 84 year interest rate chart. Rates bottomed in March 2020 form the high of 1981. In 19841 the ten year rate was 15.84%. By March 2020 it was .5%, now 5.06%, a 10x increase since March 2020. The 39 year cycle is at work here, the FED is just catching up! 

The far right low in the above chart is the March 220 low in the 10 Year Treasury Yield.

The next chart 'telescopes' in time, focusing on what has happened to the 10 Year Yield since.

The time frame here is weekly, each bar on the chart represents one week. rates have soared from .54% now to 5%, a 10x or ten fold incrase. This is what happens after a very long term trend in anything reverses. The market quickly snaps back to reality. There is nothing real about a .5% ten year rate, what fool bouht those bonds at that yield? Note this next chart is on an arithmetic scale.

 

Trump's assertion that rates should be at 1% is absurd, the market sets the ten year rate not the FED. 

Back in 1985 I visited and was allowed on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. Back then trading was done on an Open Outcry system. Floor brokers were screaming out and using hand signals, yeah right, to enter orders!  The rate on the thirty year bond was being decided right there, not in the academic halls of the FED. Open outcry is gone from the Board of Trad today but the markets still decide the rates beyond the FED overnight rate.