The Seige Settles In

 4/24/2026

The Siege Settles In

 

Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

Yogi Bera

Yogi was right in is usual manner. Howeve, we can gather some observations which serve as clues to what the next six months hold.

Despite cease fires, negotiations, threats, and what all, West Texas Intermediate is trading about $95.  Brent tops $100. The drop form $117.50 for WTIC has been a correction, not a new trend.

The AAA national average 87 octane gasoline is $4.06. This is well above the $3.17 year-ago average.   Gasoline prices tend to creep up into the summer driving season but this is something else.

The US Energy Information Administration expects electricity prices to continue higher. They go ton to say regions with already high rates are liable to experience even higher rates.  

CEOs at American and United Airlines are predicting ticket prices to rise 20% in the coming months. The American Air CEO goes so far as to suggest his airline will not be able to turn a profit this year. Imagine all that work, all those flights, and not making any money. Some carriers are already cancelling less traveled routes to conserve on the jet fuel on hand.

The Department of Defense / US Navy estimates it may take six months to clear the Hormuz Straits of mines. Passage through the Panama Canal normally cost $300 - 400,000. Prices have already risen to $425,000. Expedited crossings are said to run $4 Million. Point is, those costs for cargo will show up in higher prices for everything shipped.

Trump’s tariffs continue unabated. The cost of anything made of metal is now higher due to tariffs. Ye the tariffs have not resulted in foreign locations returning to the US, and they will not. The cost of production is simply too high in the US. That is why the Toyota Tacoma is now made in Mexico.

Note that six months to clear the Hormuz Strait. While passage ranges from dangerous to not at all, we can expect high energy prices.  Which puts the wait right into the November mid-term elections. Democrats will turn out in full force as will independents. Trump’s hold on the House is doubtful which will end his chances of passing any legislation.

The stock markets are cooling their recent rise. Industrials are still below the February 10 50,512 high. Taking out that level will be significant. However, Wednesday the Transportation average fell about 2,500 points. Transports typically lead the other averages.

The next six months will not lack for intrigue

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