A DOW Non Confirmation as Oil Prices Drop

 6/18/2026

An Oil Price Drop

“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the Iran deal, with Rubio by his side.

“If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD,” he joked. “You better be careful, JD!”

News wires Yesterday

Memo to J D Vance, VP, check with Roger Stone and Rudy Guiliani before proceeding further.

It is still working. Trump’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. As I write Thursday morning July WTIC is down $2.60 to $747.21.  More important from the Mid-term election perspective is the price of gasoline. July gasoline futures hav dropped from  the July high of $3.60 to $2.85 today. That is the futures price without any taxes at the pump.

The entire energy service sector has been slammed. Halliburton in the same time frame dropped from $43. To $34.71, down 4.2% today.

The energy market is clearly ignoring the comments of Exxon and Chevron CEOs Monday. Mike Wirth, Chevron CEO, commented that ‘a supply crunch will soon manifest itself around the world.’ Neil Chapman, Exxon CEO comments, ‘ US is approaching unheard of inventory levels.’ By that they both mean low levels. The Hormuz supply crunch has taught countries, no matter who is in charge, that a supply reserve is an absolutes necessity. Pakistan, for example, had not reeseerves. The CEOs are making the point that any supply released via Hormuz will quickly disappear into waiting tanks to establish a future reserve. The Trump administration has shrugged off these warnings. I will go with the CEOs, it is going to take a while for their projections to take effect.

The DOW tumbled 888 points from high to low yesterday. The sell-off grew more intense as it was clear the FED was not cutting interest rates. Why the market thought it might puzzles me. Wholesale pricds grew 4.2% this past year, well above the FED 2% target.

Tech stocks stil reign supreme with the SOX semi-conductor index up again today.

The DOW Theory has spoken and there is not confirmation. The Transportation Index topped in April, unconfirmed by a new high in the Industrial index. The Industrial Index soared to a new high this month. The Transportation Index topped at a lower than April level and headed down. Why would an industry, Transports, which depends on energy prices, fall amid falling oil prices. Apparently the Transportation Index agrees with the CEOs, trouble ahead.

Gold and silver have swooned. Silver is down from its May high of $90 to $66.25.