About the Expected Tech Bounce...

 Monday 11/2/2026N

Note to readers. I realize the charts spill on to the side bar when first posted but using  a smaller size makes them hard to read. A day later and the presentation is OK. 

 

NDX - No recovery here at all, see further examples below for why this is the case. that no bounce occurred after the Friday rout in tech speaks to how weak this sector has quickly, yes quickly, become. 

 

Spencer Jakob of Heard on the Street WSJ pointed out that ORCL was one of the most leveraged 

hyperscalers 

 so watch it for signs of weakness, yep here it is  Below the charts of ORCL and CRWV look remarkably similar. 

Core Weave was a crypto company but changed its name when AI became more trendy. 

Below is the picture since CRWV inception. it has given back near all the gains it squeezed out of the name change.  Its bonds would be opriced far less but these are short maturities due in the early 2030s.

 

 Intel INTC has been around for many years but it getting beaten up like CRWV and ORCL

My description of a Tech Wreck was no exaggeration. 

 

Meanwhile Trump claims an Iran war deal is in sight, how many times have we heard that, but oil tumbled in response. He has claimed right up to the election tomorrow gasoline prices will fall, apparently this is literally a last ditch attempt to make that happen. 

Loose lips sink oil price. 

 All interesting but where do we go from here ie what to do/

Short the DOW with HDGE and SPX with SH

 Here is an update of an earlier posted chart, the wave 2 top is in the next move in INDU will be  down but we may not qute be to a bottom yet. 

HDGE

 SPX

SPX and INDU have rallied in a down trend. The down trend is most likely to resume. 

Today the INDU DOW was up over 500 points only to wilt to  213, see openning table. That is less than half where it was. This is the sort of weakness one sees in bear markets, they cannot sustain a rally.

In sell offs, there is a flight to quality and that is bonds. Our TLT advanced again today with TBF off a smidge. 

See our longer term comment on bonds this weekend. With stocks selling there will be a move to bonds. First a correction from the recent run up. I am less enthusiastic about betting on that sell-off given the weakness today esp. in NDX and the halving of INDU. 

TLT long dated bond fund

 Is there a bit more left here, tomorrow will tell. Then a sel off before a longer rally begins. 

Today was a good example of why one should wait to the end of the day to comment as stocks pulled back from earlier highs. 

One more thing  tomorrow is the mid term election and results. It might make the most sense to wait for new orders until Wednesday or Thursday when the dust will begin to settle on the election. 

More tomorrow, let us know your comments and input. 

dennis.elam@att.net