10/19/2025
Stocks are at best stalled, dancing around 46,000. Here is the Daily NYSE A/D line
The overall trend is down but that does not clue is to when it might make a big break to the downside.
So we wait. Be sure to see the CAPE indicator posted last week.
Bonds
The ten-year Treasury may have finally hit its low. The TBF bear bond fund looks just like that yield.
RSI at top and PMO at bottom both look pretty well done. If the note yield breaks below 3.85%, the low is not in yet.
Gold and silver look extended enough to suggest a top is at hand. Gold dropped $77.82 Friday. I have warned not to buy at this level. Silver dropped $2.32 over 4%. Given the steep nature of the advance, I would expect a pretty good correction. Not for the timid, DZZ double short gold ETN jumped 16.5% Friday. At least is is cheap at $1.75.
Crude oil settled at $57.64, I don;t see a bottom yet.
dennis.elam@att.net
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