Stock Market Leadership Narrows

 10/31/2025

 

Stock Leadership Narrows

 

Oct 31 2025 6:30 AM,CST

There was no lack of news in the tech sector this week. Thursday META formerly Facebook, fell 11%. Investors were apparently concerned about continued plans to invest in Artificial Intelligence. There have been fortunes sent to the Church of AI but results have been somewhat lacking.

Nvidia NVDA became the first $5 trillion market capitalization stock ever.  The stock reached its first one trillion mark in early 2024. The move from two to three T took a mere 66 days.  The move from four to five T required a mere 748 days. Piling into fewer stocks in a frothy market is typically a sign of a top. This happened in 1966 when the focus was on a group of stocks known as the Nifty Fifty. IBM, Digital Equipment, and Wang were a few of the tech darlings back then. Where are DEC and Wang today?

Apple’s quarterly revenue is up8% from a year ago. After a long pause in growth, Apple has had two quarters of revenue increase compared with the same period last year.

Back to the narrowing of leadership in the stock market. The S & p index is weighted according to market capitalization. Apple with its near $4 T market cap carries more weight than say Ford. Ford is worth a measly $48 billion, how times have changed.  The Magnificent Seven tech stocks account for a full one-third of the entire SPX value.

Last Tuesday there were 294 more stocks down than up. Since 21023 the weighted SPX is up 80%. The equal weight SPXEW trails at  a 30% gain. British Economist John Maynard Keynes remarked that picking stocks is rather like picking the winner of a beauty contest. The object is not to pick which girl you think is the winner but to pick the one the rest of the crowd believes to be the winner. That is the case for this tech heavy rally of the last years.

Last week we reported on the big jump in oil prices. West Texas Crude rose from $56.50 to just over $62 in less than a week. Price is now consolidating above the $60 level.  Watch Apache APA for a clue regarding the next break out. APA rose from $22 to  $24.75. It now has fallen back to $22.40. /A move over $23.75 would be an indication of a renewed rally.

BDO and FIrst Brands

 10/30/2025

An alert student in the ethics class made this post regarding BDO and First Brands, the auto parts maker taking bankruptcy.

 

Hiltzik: The sudden financial collapse of this big auto parts firm points to the next market meltdown

Microsoft Word - FBG - Motion for the Appointment of an Examiner 4136-2869-4625 8

How Jefferies Found Itself at the Center of First Brands’ Collapse

BDO audit credibility questioned after First Brands collapse | Crain's Chicago Business

BDO chief pledges fight over ‘falsehoods’ on First Brands work

Thought I'd provide some current news regarding a firm not part of the Big 4, BDO.

First Brands has declared chapter 11 bankruptcy with the main focus being that $2.3 Billion was supposed to be paid to First Brands by First Brands turning over their receivables to financiers, yet they can't "find" the money. During their bankruptcy filing, 750 lawyers were in attendance, is that normal? Two of BDO's lawyers were also in attendance.

Who was their auditor? BDO.

How was the $12B in debt disclosed during the bankruptcy filing not shown in the balance sheet when BDO had audited them just months earlier and received a clean bill of health? It gets more interesting, Apollo is the principal financier of BDO, which Apollo is also known to take a short position on First Brands' debt. BDO has also been cutting staff in audit and tax this year, one must question if First Brands as their client contributed to that. What is the revenue generated from First Brands by BDO, one must question.

Time will tell what comes of this whole situation, something interesting to monitor.

Most Dangerous Market in History

10/30/2025

A Dangerous Market 

You Meanthe NASD can Fall, Really?

 10/30/2025

Meta tanks 11% 

Uponnannouncing bigger investment in AI, Wall Street bails. I sense that the market is having its dot.com realization.  All this investment in AI is not producing profits for the time being. This suggests, as usual, firms blundering into unknown territory in the latest spending fad. 

Meanwhile in today's WSJ , more signs of slowdown. 

 NVDA took a mere 66 days to move from 2T to  3T

78 days from 4T to 5T 

This is a mania on steroids. It is larger than many tech firms and yes it makes lots of money but then so does META, see above. If META is punished for over investing in AI, what about the source that makes th3e chips  which power AI?

Today's WSJ

Auto repos are up 12 % year over year.

GM financial has built an 800 seat call center here in SA 

 to convince buyers to keep makin payments on SUVs and PUs they cannot afford. 

Justifiable homicide, claimed sself defense, up 59% from 2019 to  2024.

Trump l plans a mid term convention in Vegas where he wond, Dems did this in 197.0s and 1980s

Page A 9 Consumers make every penny count, diluting clorox, selling on E Bay, PG saled down 2%

Alphabet and MSF sales soar

NVDA blacwell chip a big  it pushing it to  5T mkt cap

There is always a mix of mood. Here we see emering signs of negative mood, repo increase, and continuing signe of sucess, Alphabet and NVDA. 

 

Here is the SPX advance decline line note this is unweighted, each stock counts the same.

Cable business news and the media would have you believe SPX is soaring, not is is not overall, it is at best moving sideways. 

NYSE New Highs New Lows, 

 Notice the progression to lower lows, the NYSE is unweighted. 

And now the important stuff. The Bond Market

Big deal FED cuts 1/4 point, Guess what ten year rates did today, they rose. 

 Time to start adding TBF.

 MY short silver position has dropped back but has not fully corrected, I have a buy at 12.40

We have wave on up, wave two down now developing, I will be writing daily on spotting the low. 

I hope readers are enjoying our new format, let me know, anything else you wold like to see covered?

William Devane asks in his gold tv ad, are you safe? His answer is gold.

How much money do you have in stocks, a million say?  Do you have any insurance against a big drop

A Sept 18 2026 6800 put costs $34,800, That premius is 3.5% of one million. It will be in the money at 6452.  An inexpensive way to hedge but of course one contract will not hedge a million dollars worth of stock. How much does it cover?

CBOE SPX page 

The contract covers 100 x spx value or $682,233 at today'sclose, so it vover 68% of a million. If you desire to continue to hold the stocks this is a hedge, it is not a bet.  

Learn more CBOE Options Forum 

I am advocating hedging for those of you committed to the market, not betting.  

 

You can't fix stupid

 10/30/2025

A 1994 Ford Broncho was stolen out of lot 1B in daylight hours, read the description of the suspect vehicle, really stealth eh?  Why would you go to the troublt to steal a 30 year old truck? I mean that reward versus punishment thing if caught?  In the movies criminals are intelligent, in real life not so much. OOne of the louvre thieves was caught at the De Gaulle airport trying to board a plane to Algeria, his home country, what a getaway plan!

 

 

This notification is a timely warning from A&M-SA Police Department regarding a motor vehicle theft in accordance with the Jeanne Clery Campus Safety Act. We are notifying you of this incident and providing tips to help keep you and your valuables safe.  

Date/Time of Incident: 10/29/2025, 12:22 P.M. 
Location of Incident: 4148 Jaguar Parkway, Parking Lot 1B 
Description of Incident: On 10/29/2025, at approximately 7:30 P.M. A&M-SA Police responded to a report of a stolen motor vehicle.  A 1994 Ford Bronco SUV, Eddie Bauer Edition, maroon and tan was stolen out parking lot 1B.

Suspect Information: The suspect vehicle is a pickup truck, possibly a Chevrolet. This vehicle has a distinct paint job: red on the left side, royal blue on the right, and the roof and truck bed are dark blue or black, extending to the hood, which is partially white.

What is Motor Vehicle Theft? Motor Vehicle Theft is the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle. *Theft of any self-propelled vehicle that runs on land surface and not on rails, such as sport utility vehicles, automobiles, trucks, buses, motorcycles, motor scooters, trail bikes, mopeds, all-terrain vehicles, self-propelled motor homes, snowmobiles, golf carts, and motorized wheelchairs.  

Wed 10/29

 10/29/2025

Interest Rates 

Jerome just has to keep talking when he should shut up. He cut rates a quarter point,then suggested a Dec cut may hot happen well guess what the ten year note yield went higher.

 This is the important, the ten year reflects the mortgage yield which of course just bottomed. 

Milton Friedman said the FED should do everything they are going to do by 10 00 AM Monday and then get out of the way, he did not say shut up but he meant it.  Jerome just has to be in the spotlight like all DC lpoliticians. 

I have been looking for a low in rates to go long TBF.

Stocks

 This is a daily chart of the DOW. It posted an outside reversal day to the downside. This means a price higher than yesterday but it covers the entire range of yesterday,and then closes lower. Considering our overbought status, this is significant. Let's see what happens the rest of the week. 

Gold and Silver 

 Gold has completed its first wave A down, expect a bounce back up, same for silver.  The bounce up will be a good time to add bear gold and silver funds. 

NVDA First to Reach $5T Market Cap

 10/29/2025

Nvidia is the first company to reach a $5 trillion market cap, it did today. How extreme is that?

Yesterday I told a friend the story of Tulipmania in 1636 Holland.  It is the first mass investing mania in 'modern' times. 

Read the trilogy, inclulding the South Sea Bubble , and the Mississippi Bubble.

I called my original investment blog the Market Perspective. So let me offer some perspective on NVDA's value.

 

Denmark is a country of 6 million with  a GDP of $534 billion.

Mexico is a country of 132 million with a GDP of 3.3 T.

Canada is a country of 42 million wiht a GDP of 2.7 T. 

Mexico and Canda combined have about $6 T GDP, one trillion larger than a single company in the US. 

Or NVDA is worth more than Denmark plus either of the other two countries. 

I don't know how long this will last but I do know  how it will end. Please read teh stories of Holland, England, and France centuries ago. Times change, people don't.  

NVDA is worth $5 T, Idon't think so

 10/28/2025

Frothy! 

 

Dow Hits Target Area

 10/28/2025

The DOW hit a a target area of 47,775 and close at the lower end of today's range. Does that mean anything? Here the 30 minute chart appeas to be truning down RSI at top, price itself turning down this afternoon, and PMOP slightly lower than at the third wave high as it should be. 

 DOW theory holds that one index should confirm the other. If Industrials make a new high, so should Transports. That did not happenh today,see below TRAN compared to chart above

 

Bear Bond fund TBF has yet to really sustain a rally. 

After a bounce last week on Russian sanction news, WTIC pulled back today. This should be a wave two, let's see how the week develops. 

I am buyins ZSL a short silver ETF. It should move much higher. Apparently DZZ is an end of day fund, short gold, let me investigate further. 

Monday 10/27

 10/27/2025

 Stocks crept higher today and are likely to do so thru the Wed expected Fed rate cuts.

Too soon to say if yields have bottomed, Wed should be interesting.

Gold and silver have topped, a wave a down may be complete look for a short term rally. 

Chicago Bears leave Chicago in Debt

 10/26/2025

Chicago Bears Abandon Soldier Field 

 

After renovacting Soldier Field, the Bears leave for a better fan experience, does this have a familiar ring to it? 

Suspects Arrested In Louvre Robbery

 1/26/2025

hFrench Police Arrest Suspects 

I have read that the French Police are some of the best in the world, here is an example.

Were I trying to get away I don't think I would be at the De Gaulle airport 

Mafia Families Involved in NBA Scandal

 10/26/2025

The Mafia Never Went Away 

right out of Casablanca, the usual suspects

 Prosecutors alleged that illegal poker games that cheated participants out of nearly $7 million in rewards through the use of special shuffling machines and high-tech sunglasses that enabled conspirators in the scheme to read the backs of playing cards, among other tactics, were run by the Gambino, Bonanno, Lucchese, and Genovese mafia families.

All classes, if you he not seen Godfather I & II, do so, one of the greatest movies of all time and yes Casablanca with its ethical themes and great lines. Casablanca available for free on youtube 

Meet Elizabeth Conrad, Charmng Fraudster

 10/26/225

Elizabeth Conrad 

 

Elizabeth Conrad, Money Mule 

 According to court documents, Conrad is accused of serving as a “money mule” for other scammers in a conspiracy to defraud victims from at least June 2020 until September 2022. Money mules are people who, at someone else’s direction, receive and move money or valuables obtained from victims of fraud. Money mules add layers of distance between crime victims and criminals, which makes it harder for law enforcement to accurately trace funds that are fraudulently obtained from victims.   

 Criminal conspiracies are as varied as the creative minds behind them, limited only by the ingenuity of the con artists orchestrating the scheme,” said U.S. Attorney Steven D. Weinhoeft. “Be extremely cautious anytime someone you have never met offers investments, employment, or asks for money, electronics, or your personal information—it’s likely a scam.”

Meet Bridgett Conrad, Dream Employee and Fraudster

 10/26/2025

Meet Bfridgette Conrad 

This is a  link to a six minute Institute of Internal Auditor podcast. This is a series of fraud stories. Bridgette dazzled her boss and fellow employees with her understanding of accounting systems. She understood them so well, she siphoned firm money to her personal accounts.  Discovered, she was sent to 33 months in prison and $462,000 in resituttion. Not surprisingly, she was a model prisoner, dispensing financial advice and sharing snacks with fellow inmates. Released, she moved to another state. bBut eventually returned to her old ways, not awaiting trial. 

Notice there are similarities in all these fraud stories.  Bridgette sounds like a carbon copy of Janet Mello at Fort Sam or Rita Crundwell at Dix, Il. Charming, efficient, and well liked. They are con women because they get the confidence of all about them. Carlo Ponzi die the same thing. 

Final Five Waves Complete

 Friday 10/24/2025

 If correct and the S & P cash does not exceed 6814 this next week, we may be at a very important juncture, the end of the bull market.   Other than my those who follow Elliott, no one expects anything like this. All expect two FED cuts even thought yearly inflation is 3 not  2%. Trump TACOs on Canada tariffs,  govt shutdown continues, NBA gambling scandal, interesting times, oh and the New 

 Frankenstein movie is limited but going larger in Nov, see trailer

Negative mood embraces horror movies as in the  10930s Frankenstein, Dracula, Wolf Man, and 1972 Exorcist, the pitchfork crowd is back, this is apparently the most elaborate F movie ever, a fitting tribute to what may be the end of a grand super cycle bull market .

1929 amd 2025

 Friday 10/24/2025''

I have about $24,000 in bear stock funds. Yet they declined a mere $186 today. Is the rally about done?

Most of the available charts on 1929 start Oct 1929 and continue to the 1932 bottom, 90% lower. Here is a long term chart which does show the steepness of the 1920s rally

 Parabolic rallies almost always give the rise back in the subsequent fall, that happened with it taking from 1922 to  1929 to get to the top but just short of three years to give it all back.  Stocks fall 7x as fast as they rise. 

Now here we are today. 

 Notice the momentum indicators RSI and PMO top and bottom. Both peaked in 2021, indicating the top of a third wave, the third is always the strongest.  The fourth bottomed in Oct 2022, again notice the collapse in RSI and PMO. Now the DOW has rallied to a new high. RSI and PMO are not as strong as in 2022.  That is the case for fifth waves. I could go on in more detail but evidence mounts this rally is closer to an end. 

It maybe that if we believe oil is going to rally we need to buy oil, USO fund, not energy or service companies.  We shall see this next week.

Gold and silver have topped. Reasonable targets are 3300 for gold and 40 for silver.

Tucker Carlson is going into the business of selling you gold now that gold has rallied 171% in the last three years. Recall when the Seinfeld crew wanted to be paid in GE stock in 1999? That was the top for GE, history sure does rhyme as Mark Twain said.  

Let me know what you think of our market coverage in blogspot as well as other posts for students and readers alike

 

dennis.elam@att.net 

A look at Energy Choices

 10/24/2025 Friday

DIG is a leveraged ETF investing in energy companies. Here is the blue ribbon list

 

SymbolCompany% Assets

XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation 16.62%

CVX

Chevron Corporation 13.20%

COP

ConocoPhillips 5.22%

WMB

The Williams Companies, Inc. 3.50%

EOG

EOG Resources, Inc. 3.03%

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation 3.00%

KMI

Kinder Morgan, Inc. 2.83%

PSX

Phillips 66 2.81%

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

 

XES is the  energy service ETF, it is not leveraged

 

LBRT

Liberty Energy Inc. 5.04%

KGS

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. 5.02%

HAL

Halliburton Company 4.88%

WFRD

Weatherford International plc 4.81%

AROC

Archrock, Inc. 4.77%

HP

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. 4.75%

BKR

Baker Hughes Company 4.66%

NOV

NOV Inc. 4.55%

SEI

Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. 4.40%

FTI

TechnipFMC plc

 

My inexpensive service picks are Transocean RIG and Patterson PTEN 

RIG is trading at  39% of book value, PTEN at 62%, that is cheap enough. 

 

All these energy and service shares have surged on the sanction news and will likely pull back a tad next week, RIG did not advance today. Entering a ladder of orders at lower prices is the way to do this. 

After the AI frenzy I wonder if we will have some new leadership from this sector.  

 

34 Arrested in NBA Betting Fraud

 10/24/2025

NBA Coach and 33 Others Arrested 

 Those involved, including many former professional athletes like Billups, are said to have used technology to steal millions in underground New York poker games backed by members and associates of the Gambino, Lucchese, Bonanno and Genovese crime families

Kay the Corleone family will be completely legit, just give me time. 

Really I thought these families were out of the crime busines, guess I thought wrong.

Legalized sports betting was a bad idea. Interesting that so  many well paid playerrs and coaches were involved.  I looked it up. 

 ep 17, 2024 · Given the contracts signed so far, the average annual salary for NBA players during the 2024-25 season will be $11,910,649, according to Basketball Reference. 

My PhD psychlogist friend suggests that most NBA players were not academic standouts.  They really do not understand the concept of making $11M a year. As a result they are drawn to a chance to make more money without considering the risk.

This is rich. NBA Commissioner says Star NGA players deserve a raise! 

I guess so they are resorting to illegal betting deals to get ahead! 

Auto Dealership Employee Sentenced to Seven Years for $1.3 M theft

 10/24/2025

 

This clever theft shows the need for forensic investigation abilities. 

Looking for a Getaway, Something Different, Hre you Go

 10/24/2025

Take a look at the Waldorf Astoria Costa Rica 

 Rooms starting at  $1,200 a night keep the riff-raff at bay.  This is on the Pacific side. The Waldorf Astoria in NYC refurbish was just completed at a cost of $6 Billion. Rooms start at $1,500 a night, I assume this is a company credit card hotel. 

Price Rise 3% in September

 10/24/2025

hPrices Rise 3% in One Month 

 

Jerome, are you paying attention? 

Russia Freeze Raises Oil Price

 10/24/2025

 

Oil Price Advances on Russian Freeze

 

President Trump now sanctions Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. This means there are penalties for any third country buying oil from the Russian producers. The success of this strategy will depend on three things

=the success of their enforcement

-the reaction of India and China, both big buyers of Russian oil

- whether Putin can walk around the sanctions as he has so far.

Last week we observed that oil prices were at a crossroads. Price had fallen below $60. It appeared headed to $55. Then the sanctions were announced. West Texas Intermediate shot up, now trading at $62.18.

This news has spilled Wall Street. Bell weather Apache APA jumped $2.

Conoco Phillips COP jumped from $87 to $90.  Halliburton HAL soared from $22.50 to $27.22.  Transocean RIG moved from $3.30 to $3.90.  Refiner Valero VLO rose 7% Thursday.

The expectation will be for much higher oil prices in the next year.

The stock market has risen above 47,000 once again. This suggests higher index prices ahead. Corporate earnings are encouraging buying stocks.

It is amazing what companies can do when allowed to produce products that consumers want. GM and Ford F have backed off from their Obama/Biden enforced love affair with Electric Vehicles. They are returning to what they do best, make pick-ups and large SUVs. Revenue has soared at both companies.  GM stocks in two days jumped from $58 to $66. Ford F for whatever reason remains mired in the $12 area as it has for years.

Gold spiked to around $4,350 and then retreated. It trades this morning at $4,1585.  Silver topped around $53.24 and now trades at $47.64. The top price for both appears to be at hand.  Expect a prolonged period of price consolidation for the metals. 

The rate of inflation has slowed but it is still with us. Yesterday I paid $17.12 at a national deli chain. That bought me a half sandwich, a cup of soup, and iced tea.  That is expensive for a simple lunch. Wall Street expects more FED inrerest rate cuts. If in fact oil prices rise as I expect,  Jerome and the FED governors will have a hard time justifying lower rates. 

 

dennis.elam@att.net 

Ethical and Forensic Movies

 10/233/225

 

Forensic

Smartest Guys in the Room -Enron - free on Prime

Con Man free on Prime James Caan, Armand Assante, Talia Shire, and yes Barry himself

Day of the Jackal, free on you tube directed by Fred Zimmerman who also did High Noon, Man for All Seasons, Here to Eternity

Rogue Trader - Ewan McGregor as Nick Leeson, accurate portrayal of how Nick destroyed Barings Bank, four bucks to rent on Amazon

Sherlock Holmes = free on you tube both more modern Jeremy Brent and classic Basil Rathbone and Nigel Bruce

Gotti - Armand Assante won an Emmy for his portrayal of gangster John Gotti, John Travolta tried a re make  and if flopped, this is gangster at its best. Paul Castellano decided he was a business man, Gotti always knew he was a gnangster and had Paul killed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKRqOkF1G6Q

________________________________

I also teach the acct ethics class, I got to looking on youtube and was surprised to find some great choices, a few years back I had a long list of movies with ethical themes and had students write reviews

Casablanca - Look at any list of top ten movies of all time and Casablanca is always there, filmed in B & W in 1942 starring Humphrey Bogart, Ingrid Bergman, Claude Rains, a solider of fortune runs Rick's Cafe American in Casablanca, Morroco, now over run by the Germans who install a Vichy French government to suit their needs, fabulous, no one should get a college degree if they have not watched and comment on Casablanca

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dp_mlpUnYfM

Lord of War - free on youtube, Nick Cage plays an amoral American international arms dealer, based on the Russian arms dealer Viktor Bot, fabulous ethical situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTmeV6th0ZY

Barbarians at the Gate, stars James Garner, story of hostile takeover of Nabisco

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3HiONtjZSM&t=46s

Blood Diamonds-  Leo DiCaprio, story of how Debeers used near slaves to find diamonds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ref5IM8HA30

Jerry McGuire - Tom Cruise as the sports agent who knows he is doing the wrong thing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YSgvuGrYD4

Oh Mi Gosh The Hunt for ?Red October, Sean Connery in the first Tom Clancy novel to be made in to a movie, just great, Sam Neil, Alec Baldwin before he went nuts, Admiral Ramius to give the most advanced Soviet Sub to America, Connery at his best

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1ahG3ySyV8

Heat Of the Night, academy award winner Rod Steiger, Sidney Poitier, small Southern town sheriff dept picks up Poitier and accuses him of a local murder, turns out he is a top Philadelphia homicide detective, 1966 but holds up well as admiration from the sheriff towards the Philly detective grows

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHf8Dh97Qqc

The Professionals, none of you will remember this but indeed a movies all about ethics, stellar cast of Lee Marvin, Burt Lancaster, Woody Strode, Jack Palance, Ralph Bellamy, Claudia Cardinal,  two soldiers of fortune hired to rescue  Bellamy's wife from Jesus raza played by P, Palance, great theme song and great ethical movie which just happens to be a Western in about  1914

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ui-NHaLvYM

Yes I realize you do not know these actors, trust me try this

The Last King of Scotland - Forrest Whitaker delivers a terrific performance as Idi Amin - Uganda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=be4ix7hRZ40

Wolf of Wall Street - DiCaprio plays a real life scoundrel hooked on drugs and money

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J788MZ2uIGA

Falling Down - Michael Douglas best role according to his Dad Kirk Douglas, yes I realize none of you know how Kirk is but big time actor director producer back when, a fired computer whiz  has finally had enough, he encounters Robert Duvall as a detective on his last day on the  job,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8ICNUgNbRk

The Conversation - starring Gene Hackman and directed by Francis Coppola (Godfather) a security expert hers something in  a recording which leads to unexpected consequences

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzO9V-AWWZg

Key Largo - Humphrey Bogart, Lauren Bacall, Edward G Robinson, gangsters take over a Florida resort as hurricane bears down on them, terrific classsic I do not know why this has not been re made but that may  not be possible, yes it is black and white

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOmzCvafhCE

In the Heat of the Night, Academy Award Rod Steiger and Sidney Potier, holds up well after all these years

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHf8Dh97Qqc&t=6s

Thursday 10/23

 Stocks are frustrating bulls and bears here is the 20 dayu look.

 

 Market is right back where it was Oct 3, no break out no break down.

I don't know what else to say.

Bonds are not moving but have not gone to lower yields, yet. 

Recall Jamie Dimon's comment on the Triclor bankruptcy, when you see one cockroach..... 

I suspect gold and silver have topped. 

 I read the official US Treasury Dept post on the Russian sanctions and they say who but not what, I am guessing is that Trump will tariff anyone who buys Russian Oil, Oil has jumped on that news.

 More this weekend after Friday close

 

 

Security Service CU Invites TAMUSA to an open house

 10/23/2025

 While the invite says this is specific to TAMUSA given the size of the meeting room that cannot be true, surely it is for multiple schools still, give it a go, you will at least learn something about attending such events And no jeans and t shirts, business casual Have your business card identifying you, your school, acct major, exπected graduation date, e mail and cell number.

Security Service
Corporate Headquarters
15000 W Interstate 10
San Antonio, TX 78249
1.888.415.7878 

 

 

Good Morning Amy, 

My name is Kristin Wick, and I’m part of the Talent Acquisition Team at Security Service Federal Credit Union. I wanted to share an exciting opportunity with you—an exclusive event we’re hosting at our Corporate Campus specifically for students from Texas A&M University–San Antonio.

We’d love your help in spreading the word to your students. This event will give them the chance to explore our campus and connect directly with executives from key areas of our organization, including Commercial Insurance, Commercial Lending, Member Service Banking, and Enterprise Training.

Please note: Only students who are registered on the official guest list will be permitted onsite. The registration link is included below for your convenience.

Registration ink- https://forms.office.com/r/SNhZRnWvws

We look forward to welcoming your students and showcasing why Security Service is a great place to launch and grow a career.

 

 

 

 

 

Kristin Wick

Talent Acquisition Specialist | Human Resources

San Antonio Woman Sentenced in Fake Diploma Schemee

 10/23/2025

Fake Diploma Scheme 

She operated from  2018 to 2022 issuing fake high school diplomas. Then the buyers would apply for Pell Grants and student loans, I doubt anyone attended college.  Notice how long the fraud went unnoticed!

 

Internal Control Failure at Lourve

 10/23/2025

 

PARIS—There was just one surveillance camera in the area where thieves parked a truck-mounted lift to rob the Louvre Museum—and it was pointed in the wrong direction.

Security guards monitoring screens in the museum’s command center were therefore oblivious as the crew of burglars wearing yellow reflective vests placed cones around the truck and raised its mechanized ladder toward the exterior balcony of the Galerie d’Apollon, home of the nation’s crown jewels. The blind spot cost the Louvre precious minutes to stop a heist in which every second counted.

“We didn’t see the arrival of the thieves sufficiently in advance,” Laurence des Cars, director of the Louvre, said Wednesday in testimony before the French Senate. The entire perimeter of the sprawling Louvre Palace that houses the museum was monitored by only a few aging cameras, she said, adding: “The system is very insufficient.”

For years, authorities knew that lack of surveillance cameras outside the Louvre was one of many weak points in the museum’s security. They were preparing a major upgrade that, finally, aimed to cover the vast museum’s exterior with cameras, bringing state-of-the-art security to an institution that houses many of the world’s most priceless works of art.

Authorities are now facing the fact that years of delay allowed thieves to carry out one of the most devastating heists in French history. The thieves made off with eight pieces of jewelry from France’s royal and Napoleonic-era collections valued at €88 million, around $102 million, though French officials say that sum doesn’t begin to capture the jewels’ value to France.

“An immense wound has been inflicted on us,” des Cars said.

 

The four thieves who pulled off the heist were likely backed by others involved in planning the robbery, said Paris prosecutor, Laure Beccuau.

Sunday’s robbery has profoundly embarrassed the French establishment, spurring questions about how successive governments allowed security weaknesses to persist at the world-famous museum. Louvre officials have repeatedly warned over the past decade that the museum’s infrastructure was crumbling and its equipment out-of-date. They decided four years ago to pursue an upgrade, but bureaucratic hurdles meant the work has yet to begin.

Des Cars took over at the Louvre in 2021, after leading the Musée d’Orsay across the Seine River. Officials at the Louvre told her that she would be “shocked by the contrast with the obviously much more modern equipment at the Musée d’Orsay,” des Cars said.

 

In recent years, the antiestablishment yellow vest protests presented what authorities considered to be the most pressing security threat facing the Louvre. In December 2018, protesters tore down a fence in the Tuileries Garden next to the Louvre. One of des Cars’ first decisions was to upgrade fencing around the entire complex.

That left much of the dilapidated equipment and security weaknesses in place. Few surveillance cameras cover the outside of the museum, and the security command centers were woefully inadequate.

Inside the museum, 60% of its Sully wing and 75% of its Richelieu wing aren’t surveilled by video cameras, according to extracts of a report by France’s state auditor.

In 2021, the French government began preparing to fix some of these weaknesses. It was planning to spend €80 million to double the number of cameras outside the Louvre and build new command posts with modern surveillance technology. To monitor the 2.6 million square feet of floor space of the museum, once a palace of French kings, officials first needed to rewire the facility with 60 kilometers in cabling.

The outdated system, meanwhile, created an opening for Sunday’s heist. At 9:30 a.m. local time, the thieves parked the truck-mounted lift just under the Galerie d’Apollon on the eastern side of the palace.

 “Unfortunately,” des Cars said, “the only camera there is pointed west and doesn’t cover the balcony

 

That left the thieves free to go about raising the cranelike lift to reach the palace’s exterior balcony without anyone noticing. Their yellow vests and road safety equipment made them look like workers to any cars driving by on the Quai François-Mitterrand, a busy thoroughfare along the Seine River.

Security guards rushed to the site, but they were unarmed in accordance with regulations, museum officials said. Instead of trying to stop the thieves, who were brandishing their grinders as weapons, the guards focused on evacuating visitors. 

At 9:37 a.m., security ordered the museum to shut all of its exits in an attempt to trap the thieves, but the burglars simply fled back from where they came, riding the elevator crane back down to street level and escaping on motorcycles.

The crown jewels were gone. 

Beccuau, the Paris prosecutor, said the thieves obtained the truck in a town north of Paris with a name—Louvres—that closely resembles the museum’s.

“The coincidence is troubling,” she said.

Four minutes later, the thieves began cutting into the balcony window with an angle grinder, triggering the alarm system. A security guard radioed to the museum’s command post at 9:35 a.m., which notified police 33 seconds later.

By then, the thieves were inside the gallery. They turned their angle grinders on the sparkling glass display cases, cutting holes large enough to pass their hands inside and extract necklaces and earrings with emeralds the size of lozenges, a sapphire-laden tiara and other diamond-encrusted jewels. The thieves didn’t take the 140-carat Regent Diamond in an adjacent case, though.

 

 

No Decisive Outcome Yet

 10/22/2025

 

Stock markets cotinue to sway around 46,000. We do not have a break out to the up or down side.

Bonds are indecisive, the failure to rally suggest lower rate which in cycle terms is a mistake.

 

Gold and silver have topped, period.  

 

We do however have a decisive outcome in social mood. The latest epensive re make of Frankenstein 

will be available in  selected release in only high rated movie theaters

Negative mood is rising which is negative for the market 

Metals Reverse

 10/21/2025

 

Yes Virginia, markets do reverse and decline. I suggested Friday that gold and silver might have topped.

Gold made double top and then plunged. Silver just dropped.

I suggested DZZ short gold Friday, good call

 

This is a lesson for the stock market. Stock charts look like the gold and silver charts last Thursday. See the add on section in today's WSJ, one guy comments, everyone is a genius until they aren't.

 

No change in bonds or stocks. 

Louvre Robbed of Crown Jewels in Broad Daylight 4 minute theft

 10/21/2025

The Louvre is perhaps the greatest art museum in the world. Its origin goes back to Napoleon's conquests when he stole a lot of art on his various wars. 

Sunday thieves stole the Crown Jewels in borad daylight, 9 30 AM, in about four minutes

Guards blame layoffs of personnel.But in this day of motion detectors and laser guarded  displays, this is a clear lack of internal control at an important museum. A few years  ago the Notre Dame Cathedral burned. ,it has taken years to restore. 

Hmm how does one fence such valuable property, I will be researching that. 

Point is, internal control has lots of applications, including rare works of art in museums.  Clearly the Museum assumed no one would be bold enough to try a daylight robbery while the Museum waas open, they assumed wrong!

Former Fench President Sarkozy Heads to Jail

 10/21/2025

Personal accounts of being in French Jail 

This is the first French former President to be jailed. It involves financing his campaign with money from Libya. At age 70, a five year sentence is a long time.  

Frothy Indicators

 10/21/2025

The froth continues.  Here is chart of ODTE option trading. That stands for zero days to expiration. In short the option expires the day you buy it, rather like betting o a roulette wheel. I cannot find the dollar volume of a US Exchange but I doubt it is more than $1.5 Trillion.

 Time is always the enemy of buying options, one day is ridiculous. But on a 500+ point day like Monday it works. Note this indicator has tripled in the last two years.

And then there are leveraged ETFs. This is a listed stock which invests in a specific industry or as now, AI. 

In the last 15 years this has gone from less than 100 to 701, a 7x increase.  ETFs are being introduced with 5x leverage. It won' take much of a sell-off to wipe out an account. 

This are not exact indicators, only windsocks. The winds are approaching hurricane strength. 
 

Whoops about that Friday Column

 10/20/2025

OK Gold did not top riday, it rose another $170 or so today. 

 Silver did not make a new high today. Still with a 95% Market Vane Bullish Consensus this is the time to be pacing sell stops under positions not adding. 

Stocks, NYSE Advance Decline

 This is the large chart size if I make it very large it spills into the about me segment at right. 

This is a nice recovery and the strength of today's rally does not auger for a sell off. Assume the markets are going higher no matter how over bought they are now. 

Berkshire Hathaway has gone sideways the last two months, hmm. not enot enough high tech too much Chevron

Interest rates have yet to increase but have not gone lower either. Patience.

OK enough of this how about entertainment news?  Yes Mick Jagger 82 is marrying a 38 Yr Old ballerina they already have one child, his eighth. That was in 2016 when he was only 72. 

 

Bonds Gold Stocks

 10/19/2025

Stocks are at best stalled, dancing around 46,000.  Here is the Daily  NYSE A/D line

 The overall trend is down but that does not clue is to when it might make a big break to the downside. 

So we wait.  Be sure to see the CAPE indicator posted last week. 

Bonds

The ten-year Treasury may have finally hit its low. The TBF bear bond fund looks just like that yield.

RSI at top and PMO at bottom both look pretty well done.  If the note yield breaks below  3.85%,  the low is not in yet. 

Gold and silver look extended enough to suggest a top is at hand.  Gold dropped $77.82 Friday. I have warned not to buy at this level. Silver dropped $2.32 over 4%.  Given the steep nature of the advance, I would expect a pretty good correction. Not for the timid, DZZ double short gold ETN jumped 16.5% Friday. At least is is cheap at $1.75.

Crude oil settled at $57.64, I don;t see a bottom yet. 

dennis.elam@att.net
 

The Spurs New Arena

 .10/19

 A recent Spurs mailer arguing for a new arena downtown shows a smiling young fan beneath the slogan: “Meet the New Landlords.” Taxpayers will pay “$0!”, the flyer touts, while the Spurs “pay rent” and the public “owns the arena for generations.”

 

But what landlord spends $1 billion to collect just $4 million a year in rent over 30 years  — and agrees to fund costly mid-lease renovations? And by the end of the lease, history shows, taxpayers will likely be left with an “obsolete” depreciated building requiring ever-more subsidies.

You can love the Spurs and still hate this proposed arena deal before voters; it’s a bad deal made worse by the unnecessary rush, the hard-sell and the misleading marketing. Taxpayer-funded arenas almost never deliver promised economic gains, but we can and should demand a deal that is transparent about costs and benefits, so that voters can make an informed choice.

 

Proposition B would dedicate $311 million from Bexar County to help fund construction of this new downtown arena.  If passed, the city of San Antonio will add $489 million, plus the cost of land and infrastructure, for an estimated public contribution of over $1 billion.

The county’s $311 million venue tax may rely mostly on tourists, but it’s still public money. After public input, the last venue tax election funded the Tobin Center, Mission and Museum Reach, and youth sports complexes such as Mission Concepcion, McAllister Park Little League, S.T.A.R. Soccer and Northside Swim Center. These are facilities that serve residents and attract steady tourism through competitions. This time, there was no public process or economic analysis, just a rush to the polls.

Multiple flyers supporting the arena claim it will not be funded by property taxes. But more than half of the city’s $489 million arena debt would be financed by the HemisFair Tax Increment Reinvestment Zone, known as TIRZ, plus ground leases and the team’s annual $4 million rent. Another $60 million from the Midtown TIRZ is proposed to buy the land — a cost omitted from the $1.3 billion price tag and the city’s contribution.

TIRZ revenue comes from property taxes, not tourist taxes, and ground leases and rent would normally also go to the general fund. Redirecting them to arena debt creates real costs for residents by diverting funds from police, fire, parks and streets, and shifting those costs to taxpayers outside the zone.

The Midtown TIRZ is mature and now generating $12 million annually. Using this money to buy land is no different than pulling it straight from the general fund.

 

Visitors do pay most of the state hotel and alcohol tax — the Project Finance Zone revenue or PFZ — proposed to finance the remaining 48% of the city’s debt. But it does not have to fund arena debt. It could pay for the infrastructure the arena requires — parking, streets, bridges, transit, even nearby parks and retail.

Instead, the city proposes a separate $250 million bond — debt paid by property taxes — to build that infrastructure. This debt will consume about half of the projected 2027 bond capacity and crowd out citywide needs.

And while unused tax would revert to the state’s general fund, most state spending supports schools and health care. Using the PFZ for an arena just furthers the state’s policy of subsidizing pro sports at the expense of core services.

The Spurs have promised $1.4 billion, either from their own money or others they identify, in nearby development. But the development is undefined and the “guarantee” practically unenforceable. If they don’t deliver, the only remedy is for the city to walk away from the deal. Given the sunk costs and the boosterism from city employees and elected officials, that seems unlikely.

The Spurs have guaranteed the portion of the bond payment backed by property tax, but that’s not enough to ensure development, particularly since it can be refunded if “excess revenue” appears. That means the Spurs get paid back the cost of breaking their “guarantee” before taxpayers pay down debt or see a dime of return. In any normal business negotiation, that would be unacceptable.

The only arena economic analysis, paid for by the Spurs, estimates the public’s $800 million share would create just 114 new permanent jobs, with most income gains going to Spurs players. The city would net only $474,000 a year in new tax revenue, hardly a great return on a $489 million investment.

The report notes that the county loses money.

Other cities have done better. The Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers financed arenas privately. Sacramento, Detroit and Milwaukee — a smaller market than San Antonio — kept the public share under 50%, versus roughly 62% here.

Oklahoma City taxpayers are funding a larger share, but getting a much less expensive arena, making the public cost close to the same. Miami-Dade secured $117 million in naming-rights revenue; Orlando captured income from naming rights, suites and non-team events.

We can do better, too.

A “No” vote on Proposition B isn’t anti-Spurs — it’s pro-San Antonio. It tells city and county leaders to negotiate a deal worthy of the city we want to be. The Spurs still have seven years left on their lease. A fair partnership, built on respect not a shakedown, and facts rather than spin, is still possible— but voters must first reject this one-sided deal.

Susan Strawn is an attorney and former federal prosecutor. 

Oct 17, 2025

Susan Strawn