IBM Takes Off

 May 22, 2026

IBM Takes Off

IBM (IBM) surged 12.75% after the U.S. government announced a $2 billion investment in quantum computing, with IBM set to receive $1 billion for a new foundry, significantly outperforming the tech sector's 0.81% gain.

Thursday May 21

A blast from the past tech moved the DOW to a new high and again today as IBM jumps another 2%. In the 1960s IBM  was the Nvidia of its day, everything old is new again.

With a nod to sportswriter Jason Gray, there are two kids of financial forecasters who attempt to call tops and bottoms in markets. Those who are wrong and those who will be. This forecaster is now in both categories.  The DOW has surged to a new high, the Transports did so in April but retreated since.  I am not sure that counts as a confirmation. The SPX and NDX are within spitting distance of new highs. It Charles Dow were revising his theory of Industrials and Transports today, I suspect he would give the tech stocks a much larger role.

If a government grant to any one tech company can goose an index to new highs, well, this sort of thing could continue for some time.

Walmart announced strong results for the latest quarter. It also noted customers are buying ten gallons or less in their tanks, citing consumer stress. It left results for the rest of the year unchanged. WMT stock dropped seven percent that day, go figure.  

The big stock news is the Space X initial public offering. It is expected to mark a new high in billions raised. Elon Musk have been granted 1.3 billion Class B shares which will vest if he hits, well out of this world results. Those include human colonies on Mars, data centers in space. The Space X filing suggests those goals are improbable.

I have been correct about higher interest rates. Mortgages have risen to 6.51%. the benchmark te- year note is 4.58%, pulling back a bit. The thirty-year bond yields 5.08%. Kevin Marsh is sworn in as the new FED Chair today.  Trump has made no secret of his desire for a lower overnight FED rate. Good luck convincing him the bond market has already made up its mind on longer rates.

And then there is WTIC which jumps back and forth over $100. Most everyone now admits Trump will have to invade Iran to retrieve nuclear material. Is there any support for that in Congress with Mid-terms looming, probably not. Invade Cuba with its weak military, niot so fast,  Venezuela as the 51^st state, no way. Point being Trump has a lot on his plate beyond that East Wing Ballroom.

Expect higher stock prices, lower bond prices, and a continuation of triple digit oil prices.

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