Living on the Fault Line

 10/18/2026

Underneath us all
There's a world that we always forget 'til it moves us
Where the moon on the bay dances all alone
Ramone, he draw the razor swift, it slice the air
No more lovely dreams of those summer nights
Down in Santo Domingo
They laugh and play in the sleepy harbor town
So unaware of the danger that's around

 

Doobie Brothers 10th Album, Living on the Fault Luine

 

 In three days the NASD took out the  50,87, and  125 day MAs. 

Six Month View

It took two months to do that this summer. \

The official story is that investors, read gamblers. are rotating out of AI into other stocks. 

the DOW was down Friday as well as the Russell 2000 so I am  not sure what they are rotating to.

A few are worrying that the AI debt is piling up while returns are not.

Corewweave, which used to be a crypto company, debt load in the last three quarters has gone from $29 to 35 to 51 billion.

What does this wonder do? From finance yahoo...

CoreWeave, Inc. operates as a cloud infrastructure technology company in the United States. The company offers CoreWeave Cloud platform that comprises proprietary software and cloud services that deliver the automation and efficiency needed to manage complex artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure at scale. It also offers data and storage solutions, such as Local Object Transport Accelerator; infrastructure control solutions, including CoreWeave Kubernetes service; mission control services, including node, rack, and fleet lifecycle management;

 The stock now trades at 1/3 of its peak in 2025. It has had a negative book value. 

will customers ever pay enough of cloud services that deliver to bail out this kijd of debt?  The NVDA CEO on Friday said oh sure rescuing a further decline.  

 Oracle debt is about $155 B the last three quarters

 ORCL is trading for 41% of its peak price. These two are perhaps the most leveraged opf the AI grop and bvear watching. 

We have yet to see a lop-sided day of 7 or 8 declines for every advance. So the bear market has not officially started. Patience.  With six Senate races too close to call, Trump may lose both houses, certainly the House. It will be a big change in the news as Dems seek their own revenge. 

Ten-year yield has eased from nearly 5.4 to 5.1%.