Hmm, Was that A Bear I Saw Today?

Wednesday 7/29/2026 The INDU declined 1m153 points or 2.19% today. The INDU has been holding up as investors, read gamblers, shifted from the now out of favor SOX NDX and Mag 7 stocks to the more run of th emill INDU 30 which does not contain the condentration of tech stocks. the June 10 low was 49,920, call it 50,000. We need to see previous lows like that taken out to have more assurance the top is FINALLY in. Stock indexes ralled late in the day and then on FED no cut news fell to lows of the day. SOX semi-conductors has fallen out of its sort of head and shoulders pattern. Ditto for the Mag 7 stocks. IF NDX contines to respect its June 7 high, we will have moe confirmation of a top in stocks. Okay I am edging back to the bear camp for stock market in general. Recall we have HDGE for INDE, SH for SPX, PSQ for NDX and RWM for Russell 2000. Back in 2009 the NDX was actually under 2,500, today it closed at 27,192, the potential for loss is as large as dot.com 2002 or sub-prime March 2009. the 200 month moving average for the INDU is 25,1841, or about 50%, a fibonacci number, of where the INDU is today. As we have not been to the 200 month MA since 2009, this seems a reasonable eventual target. Why you ask? Margin debt is 50% higher than in 2000, height of the dot.com mania. All those leveraged trades will be unwound. Margin debt in brokerage accounts is 6.5x to cash, there will be a scramble out of that borrowed money. Far more margin exists in leveraged ETFs including so called income funds like municipal bonds and REITs, sold as safe investments. And there are all sorts of leveraged funds like the latest on Spacex, and various indexes. Actor William DeVane is a spokesperson on TV for a metals firm. As he puts it, there have only been two times when the Federal Budget was more than the GDP< WW II and now. Worse those borrowing costs are rising. I have noted that the ten year note was 3.95% February 28 when teh fighting started, now it is 4.6%. The FED left rates unchanged but the bond market has not, see previous sentence. right on cue, Iran refused whatever deal has been floated and oil jumped $5, right at the $78 WTIC level. Again higher interest rates and higher eergy prices were features of the 1973-74 melt down. Still working to get chart display back, patience. I hope you are finding this information of value dennis.elam@att.net