Friday July 17, 2026 Energy Update

 7/17/2026

  

Long Term Energy Update

July 15, 2026 Let's look at the longer-term energy. picture, Recall Iran has nothing to sell other than oil, so their interest is in a stable oil, profitable price.

In early 2025, oil started dropping from $80. It went all the way to $55 by December, 2025. Then bingo, February 28, 2026 and we get Epic Fury, Trump attacks Iran, do you suppose there is a linkage in the $55 and a war to jump price to $120?. Yeah, uh huh. That would have been  the rare time to buy an option on oil. Oil drops back on Vance's Memo of Understanding, how naive can Vance be?  Bingo, the oil price stops right at the confluence of the chart moving averages.  Again, do you think this is all coincidence? And out goes the memo, Trump will get 20% toll free, and then the next day he won't, gee don't you know the Iranians love this stuff, leader of the free world cannot make up his mind, but that is not our problem at hand. And holy Petrodollar Batman, oil jumps right thru all four MAs to come to $79.58, that was Wednesday.

My contention is that the Iranians have established a new floor for oil at $70 - 80.  I believe this will be the new normal for some time. Now to a strategy that will maximize our returns given this floor price. We are now able to invest right at the emergence from this new price floor. Expect Iran to keep things going right into the mid-terms.  Trump does not have the Congressional backing to do much more than the fireworks currently on display.   The oil price stays firm as they sell via shadow ships to China et al.

July 17, 2026 Oil jumps $2.50 overnight. All the major energy stocks jump upside. Trump was expecting oil prices to drop, uh no, uncertainty via fireworks upsets rather than calms markets.

The big AI news this week was the 22% one day drop in IBM. Sure they made billions but uh, er, ah, maybe bet too heavily on a few customers using their product instead of an AI alternative, but what does it matter? The stock took the biggest hit since the 1987 one0day crash. Wal Street is getting nervous about lots of AI investment with questionable returns.

I have been warning of stock market topping conditions for a year, talk about early!  This morning the tech heavy NDX is down 1.77%, falling out of its sideways formation. One day does not change a trend, but it sure did for IBM. Time to dust off those re-runs of Dallas, J R Ewing is back.

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