NVDA and Jobs Report Fall Flat

 11/21/2025

 

NVDA and Jobs Report Fall Flat

 

Thursday the DJIA swung mor than 1,000 points intra-day. It gave back a 700 point gain, closing 387 points lower.

Wall Street Journal today

Monday the media was agog over the prospect of Nvidia earnings and the Thursday jobs report. NVDA reported a  62% increase in sales.  NVDA closed down over 3%, despite the big sale jump. As I write Friday morning, it has dropped another 1.22%.

The jobs report cited 119,000 new jobs.  The markets rallied for about thirty minutes and then reversed direction. Micron Tech lost 18% this week. Western Digital surrendered 8.9% and AMD gave back 7.8%.

Just weeks ago, investors were wild for tech stocks. Now the media tells us they are concerned whether the big investments, billions, in Artificial Intelligence, will pay off. The reality us that social mood towards the tech stocks has changed. The seven to ten tech stocks were accounting for 40% of the SPX value. The world does not turn on a dozen stocks.  

The DJIA has now closed below the November 7 close of 46,495. The high November 12 was 48,249. The decline from November 12 to mid-Friday today is 2,277 points.  The next juncture is the October 14 low of 45,719.

This action is an echo from October 1973. Then as now the markets made a new high on thin leadership. Markets sold off dramatically into mid-November as they have again.

We have noted for months that there has not been a Dow Theory confirmation of the new highs in the Industrials. The Transports peaked in November 2024. Transports have not returned to that high negating a buy Dow signal.

The yield on the ten-year Treasury was October 22 at 3.95%. Yields rose above the daily down trend line to 4.16%. They have now pulled back to 4.07% in a re-test of the breakout. There does not seem to be unity at the FED on whether to cut another quarter point. But long dated rates have increased in the last month. The FED only sets the overnight rate.

Crude oil bottomed October 20 at 57.02. It rallied and has now pulled back to $59.00. Yes, heating oil also rose from the October low. But it dropped 3.89% Thursday.  Natural gas has performed the best rising form $3 in the same period to $4.47. That said I really have no solid prediction about the direction of price in the near future.

When he was known as Cassisus Clay, he remarked ‘never mind what people say, just make sure they talk about ya.’  One might say that about the return of Landman streaming on ParamountPlus.  Tommy Norris is not a Landman but that is one of the least exaggerations of the series. But it is a smash hit, and everyone is talking about the Basin.

Dennis.elam@att.net