Sunday, November 9, 2025

Natural Disasters and the Markets

 11/9/2025

Market tops are often accompanied by natural disasters. The disaster adds tp economic slowdown. In the  1980s Japan was viewed as unstoppable in economic terms. Then the 1989 typhoon season hit.  

Japan went into two decades of slowdown, lengthened by the government's refusal to let  bankrupts do just that. '

6.9 earthquake hits Japan.  Apparently no injuries.

Phillipine earthquake kills 72. 

Jamie Dimon moves in to his new $6 B 60 story headquarters at  270 park Avenuie. 

Ford moves into its 2.1 million sf headquarters. 

San Antonio votes to spend about $800 M public money (actually the city did not let citizens vote on its $489 M contribution)  for a new Spurs basketball arena. That will make two 15,000 sf arenas when the n3ew one is finished in addition to the 65,000 seat Alamodome. 

State wide and national accounting firms are scooping up larger local San Antonio firms. They of course expect to make more money than any firm is currently making to have a return on the investment. We shall see. 

NDX Daily


 The uptrend appears broken in conjunction with the Oct 29 hig in several indexes. 

NDX 30 minute

After several days of decline from Oct 29 traders bought back the sell-off late Friday. Judging by the PMO I would expect more rally this week before the down turn resumes. 

Bonds

The Ten Year Treasury yield brok above its down trend line. We have discussed this for some time. Note the FED only sets the overnight lending rate, the market sets all other yields.


 

TBF is a bear bond fund so it mimics the yield above rather than the falling bond price.  Time to buy!


 It will be interesting to see how Trump's Tsyn Secy spins this one!  Again this is a sign of a coming recession if in fact we are not already in one given the layoffs in big firms. 

Silver

silver is in a wave two sideways correction. It should reach the previous high at  49.50 before topping. 


 I downloaded a national for pay newsletter this weekend. It was rather vague but did cite previous miraculous calls. Seems to me this letter is doing as well if not better for a far batter price.  More tomorrow.

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