11/7/2025
We are now seeing the results of all this built-up braking force over the past 2 years. Other agencies and causes may get blamed in the media for the economic slowdown, but it is the Fed's fault.
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His parents created the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
Oscillator aned Summation ndex
His weekly bulletins usually highlight graphs of two different markets offset but a time period. The last had gold and oil offset by 1.5 years, he thought gold was predicting higher oil prices, maybe but not yet.
My point is that most analysts have no over riding system. They talk about the FED, various indicators like GDP or currency reserves. Over my time following markets here are a few 'benchmarks' which have come and gone.
1970s Friedman's Money Supply was continually cited in business media
1980s How many US bonds would the Japanese buy in this auction, heard of that lately?
1990s What is Greenspan doing today?
Right now, the focus is all on the Mag 7 tech stocks, Palantir CEO claiming how could we have a recession as Burry shorts his stock and by golly the NASD is falling.
My take is that the 39 year cycle of lower interest rates ended March 2020 dating back to 1981. Long term rates should be going higher, and they have been since March 2020. The FED only sets overnight rates. I do agree that we could use the two year note rate and save all we spend on the FED.
I believe the market is selling off not because of tariffs or uncertainty about AI. It is selling off becuse Ralph Elliott's wave pattern of three up two down has ended on multiple time frames. The top was Oct 29 just as Oct 1973 was a final top.
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