Banks Warns of Economic Slowdown with Credit Card Interest Cap

 1/14/2026

trump doubles down on credit card rate 

Trump claims he is running Venezuela. I guess by the same token he can run the 4 big banks in the USA.

I don't understand how an Executive Order can force banks to change their rates, probably the banks don't either.  Sure the rates are high - over 20%. But this is unsecured debt, no collateral.  the default rate is high. As a former Bankruptcy Trustee I can attest to that. Individuals with a mortgage, two car payments and two kids soon start living on the credit card. One loses a job and that's all folks. This is why ra rates on cards are high. 

 

As the  WSJ commented today, Trump ciriticized Kamala for being a communist wanting to set just about everything to her will. Who is the Central Planner now? 

Neiman Marcus in BK for second time in five years

 1/14/2026

 Read History of Neiman Marcus here

 

Neiman out of BK in 2020 

 

Saks qcquires Neiman Dec 2024 

 

Saks &Neiman File Again 

It only took 12 months for the deal to fall apart and then 14 days to file Ch 11 

Saks acquired Neiman Marcus and Bergdoff in a $2.7 B acquisition to create a luxury juggernaut. 

The lure of low interest rates caused the underwriters and Saks to ignore proper due diligence. 

Saks missed a whopping $100 M debt payment in December and here we are. 

It will be interesting to see how this is 'restructured.' 

Here is the list of 'valued advisors' who helped underwrite this deal. Next time someone tells you how experienced and wise  these usual suspects are remind them of this stunt. 

_______________________________ 

M. Klein & Company served as financial advisor and capital markets advisor to Saks Global on the acquisition of Neiman Marcus Group and related financings. Solomon Partners also served as a financial advisor to Saks Global.

Jefferies LLC served as a financial advisor to Saks Global and was also Lead Left Bookrunning Manager for the Senior Secured Notes issuance.

BofA Securities, RBC Capital Markets, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., and Morgan Stanley served as financial advisors to Saks Global, led the Asset-Based Lending (ABL) revolving credit facility, and served as Joint Bookrunning Managers for the Senior Secured Notes issuance.

Elm Street Advisors served as strategic, commercial and operational advisor. Deloitte served as a financial and tax advisor to Saks Global.

 

A transition Day Perhaps

 1/13/2025

Morgan Chase earnings disappoint 

DOW on the two hour chart. RSI top and PMO bottom have turned down which is why  I label this a transition day. Notice in the link above that Central Bankers not only here but around the world have criticized DOJ's attempts to criminalize the FED Chair. Powell himself went offensive Sunday night saying it was an attack on the FED to get what Trump wants.  Powell has hired the premier DC law firm.

 

DOW Daily Below is the same one month time frame but on a daily chart. RSI is lower than a few days ago. The upper line of the PMO is topping. So looking at the same month is two different time frames gives us a clue as to direction, probably down. We noted January 9-26 is typically a down period. If so is that all there will be to it?  I saw a fellow on a cable business channel promoting collectibles, he had a baseball card  from way back like 1916 saying it had brought more money every time it had been sold. My take is that the sales were at a peak of positive social mood, as we are in now, so yes they brought big money. Had the same been at the dot.com bottom of 2002 or March 2009 of the sub prime bust, perhaps that would be a different story.  Trump claims to be working with Venezuela, how is that possible, threatening Iran and Denmark, a Florida Congressman introduced a bill to 'annex' Greenland, what is that I wonder,  Trump declares war on Powell and his own Atty General Bondi, and says we, get that we, will be screwed if the Supreme Court throws out his tariffs. Gee is that enough fights for one guy?

Gold and silver were quiet seemingly running into resistance. Tomorrow should see a transition down in hose markets as well. No change regarding interest rates. Oil rose over a buck. 

Next update after tomorrow's close. 

 

DOW drives Higher

 1/12/2025 Mondaty

THe DOW and SPX drove higher while the NASD and NDX did not. 

 

 See the divergence?  SPX drives higher but the tech heavy NDX topped in late October. This divergence has marked past market tops, it will this o one as well. 

Gold silver and stocks have marched higher in lock step.  I expect metals and stocks will also retreat in unison. That could happen as early as Wednesday this week. 

 Silver is the black bar and SPX are the single bars. Both have joined in the same final parabolic rally. Yes this rally has been something to observe. I cannot recall a time that silver and gold made so many successive highs at a market top. I am sticiing with the idea 

Silver in Parabolic Move

 This is a ten day moving average on the sixth month chart of silver. Note that the solid line has become much more steep than teh Aug-Oct period, this is what I mean by parabolic. Arithmetic is 2x, parabolic is x squared. Prarbolas always reverse to the downside in similar fashion. 

The dollar will not bottom until gold and silver top and turn down, simple as that. 

I agree with,for once, Janet Yellen, the markets should be more concerned about the sub poena of Powell.  Maybe they will by Wednesday.

I know I have been looking for a top for some time, patience. See the weekend posts on stock orice to sales of the market compaies.  

Junk Food Junkie

 Larry Groce

 

Making fun of the Granola Crowd 

No Bears in Sight

 1/10/2025

The next chart features DOW, SPX,and silver. It illustrates tha everything is up because well everything is up. Social mood is wildly popular towards investing. Recent articles include military and teenagers as investors.  this is a nine month chart following the April low.

How expensive is this market?  The most expensive in the last 20 years. This is the price of the stock relative to the company sales. This is all the data this site had, I regret it does not go back to March 
 I googled for the following chart and found a treasure trove at

 https://www.multpl.com/

Take a look at long term charts at that site.  

Here is another interesting site.

 https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/

 

2000 peak of the dot.com mania but look how much higher it is now than in 2007 before the subprime crash. Back then it was 1.5, now 3.44, more than twice as high. Take profits!

 Next is price to book value. This does go back to 2000, now it is higher than dot.com or sub prime.at a whopping 5.65. Investors, ie gamblers, are paying $5.65 for every dollar of a company earnings. 

Count the waves from 1880. Wave 1 peaks in 1929. Two bottoms in 1932. Three tops in 1973 Four ends in 1982. Five is ending now. 

Buffet Indicator  Stock Market Value divided by GDP. This is why the new guy at BRK is sitting on 320 B of Tsy Bills. This indicator is 77% higher than the long term trend.

 

 

Okay,  this next chart shows the symmetry of the 39 year bond or interest rate cycle from the 1972 low to the 1981 high to the March 2020 low, a perfect 39 years. Rates are now accelerating from near nothing. No  matter what Trump tries to do this cycle will not be undone.

 

TriColor Fruad

 1/1/2026

Tricolor Fraud 

The above link is from a law firm website, well done and brief. 

 

US Atty Office, Indictment attached 

 

The above includes the 20 pages, wow, indictment of Daniel Chu, CEO of Tricolor. 

this is a VERY instructive read about a fraud so destructive Tricolor went straight to Ch 7 bankruptcy.