No Bears in Sight

 1/10/2025

The next chart features DOW, SPX,and silver. It illustrates tha everything is up because well everything is up. Social mood is wildly popular towards investing. Recent articles include military and teenagers as investors.  this is a nine month chart following the April low.

How expensive is this market?  The most expensive in the last 20 years. This is the price of the stock relative to the company sales. This is all the data this site had, I regret it does not go back to March 
 I googled for the following chart and found a treasure trove at

 https://www.multpl.com/

Take a look at long term charts at that site.  

Here is another interesting site.

 https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/

 

2000 peak of the dot.com mania but look how much higher it is now than in 2007 before the subprime crash. Back then it was 1.5, now 3.44, more than twice as high. Take profits!

 Next is price to book value. This does go back to 2000, now it is higher than dot.com or sub prime.at a whopping 5.65. Investors, ie gamblers, are paying $5.65 for every dollar of a company earnings. 

Count the waves from 1880. Wave 1 peaks in 1929. Two bottoms in 1932. Three tops in 1973 Four ends in 1982. Five is ending now. 

Buffet Indicator  Stock Market Value divided by GDP. This is why the new guy at BRK is sitting on 320 B of Tsy Bills. This indicator is 77% higher than the long term trend.

 

 

Okay,  this next chart shows the symmetry of the 39 year bond or interest rate cycle from the 1972 low to the 1981 high to the March 2020 low, a perfect 39 years. Rates are now accelerating from near nothing. No  matter what Trump tries to do this cycle will not be undone.