DOW 50,000, Not so Fast

 1/14/2026

 This is Spencer Jakab in today's WSJ. He notes when the DOW has hit resistance with round numbers in the past. 

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Big market milestones aren’t something to hang your hat on—unless they literally involve a hat.

It was nearly 27 years ago that New York Stock Exchange officials tossed “Dow 10,000” baseball caps onto the trading floor to commemorate the index reaching that level for the first time. NYSE boss Richard Grasso even signed a few, and one was quickly sold on eBay for $260.

“I'm disappointed that people are profiting from the sale of the hats,” said the exchange's senior vice president of communications at the time.

That’s why he wasn’t vice president of markets: It was a smart trade. Replicas were soon sold to employees of this newspaper for just $10. And the index? Stocks would enter a bear market a year later, and the Dow wouldn't remain sustainably above that barrier until 2010 (after more than 60 attempts).

The long wait to cross a round number bears thinking about as the Dow sits on the cusp of 50000. While there’s nothing magical about them, milestones exert a psychological pull and often seem to be breached when stocks are frothy.

The Dow probably crossed 1000 points during a trading session back in 1966’s “Go-Go” market. (Computers weren’t as efficient so observers aren’t sure). It first closed above that level much later, in 1972, when the “Nifty Fifty,” that era’s Magnificent Seven, peaked. Cue a nasty bear market in 1973.

The Dow couldn’t sustain four digits until 1982. The long wait was dubbed “quadraphobia,” according to Journal columnist Jason Zweig.

Whether it technically took 10 years or 16, that’s bad. But it was child’s play compared with the original big number: 100 points. The Dow got there a century ago yesterday, as readers of our “This Day in Markets History” segment will recall. Two world wars and the Great Depression repeatedly pushed it back. The index last moved past 100 points in 1942.

What 1906, 1972 and 1999 had in common is that they preceded severe bear markets during times of intense public interest in the stock market. The final crossings occurred at times of deep pessimism when nobody was wearing hats, except maybe ironically.

By every measure, this is one of the exuberant times. Stocks have almost never been as expensive based on reliable long-term measures. As a share of Americans’ household wealth, they’re even more important than in 1929 or 2000.

Dow 100000 may take a while, so savor this moment. It’s a lot more fun the first time than the 60th.