NDX Friday Rally Fails

 1/4/2026

The tech heavy NDX or NASD 100 has powered the stock market rally odf 20256. On the first trading day of 2026 it rallied strong to start and then closed down 300 points from the intra-day high. 

  This is a five day hourly chart. Notice teh big move up on the Friday open which then collapsed , then finally closing lower than Wednesday This is not the  way to start a big rally.  On the daily chart it is an outside reveral down day. That portends more weakness.

DOW

The previous high was 48,782. Fridays move up was a relief rally not confirmed by the NDX and barely by a day end 12 point up move in SPX. PMO at bottom has turned down. 

 In a previous post  we noted the Mag 7 is now the Mag 2, the tech rally is weakening. 

Ten Year Note

 

I have labeled the ten year note chart as a head and shoulders pattern.  The red line is the neckline of the pattern. Notice at right that price tried to rise above the neckline and failed, turning down. The move to higher rates has taken much longer than I thought but here is more evidence higher rates, lower bond  prices are on the way. 

ZSL Short Silver

 ZSL has filled previous gaps and is above its lowest price. It appears to be above a down trend line, not shown. 

Utilities ETF

A real confirmation of a stock market top would be a lop sided down to up ratio of like 9 to 1. That has no t occurred yet. So as a conter I bought UPW a utility ETF>.  IT bounced 44 cents Friday and appears to be making a low. It is one of the few stocks I could find that is not wildly over priced. 

We shall see how this plays out this week. 

dennis.elam@att.net