Mixed Signals

 6/4/2026

 The buy the dip crowd jumped into various DOW shares and erased yesterday's 600+ sell off with an 800+ gain. But NDX and SOX actually sold off ,these are the more important averages as tech has driven the mania.

DOW

 

NDX

SOX

Neither SOX nor NDX has turned down via PMO  or RSI.

So where are we?  Transports are not at a new high, a non confirmation to the DOW but I suspect the SOX and NDX are more important.  Again I have no opinion  other than to wait for the daily momentum indicators to turn down. 

House Invokes War Powers Resolution - a Socionomic Moment

 6/3/2026

House Approves War Powers Resolution 

 

Opposition to war grows

It's the fourth time the House has tried to curb the U.S. war against Iran. The Senate advanced its own war powers resolution last month when a handful of GOP senators broke ranks with the Republican president in a rare show of political pushback from his party.

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From the standpoint of how social mood drives social actions, today's fourth try which pushed the vote to a resolution is no surprise. It happened on the exact day the DOW reversed its climb by 6212 points.

 Notice the DOW closed on the low of the day, as did the mood of the Congress towards the President. After a 400+ point rally Tuesday, mood shifted on the open today. the SOX semi-conductor index advanced. The NDX higher in March 2000 after the DOW topped at March, 2000. 

I will write more on the mood change the rest of this week, I have certainly written about it coming for the last year. 

DOW and SPX Looking Toppy

 6/3/2026

The SOX semi conductor index rose again todayb but the DOW was solidly down.

 This Market Carpet chart shows the action in the DOW stocks by dollar activity, it is a price weighted index.  Notice only five stocks were up. I showed yesterday that retail and restaurants were trending down contrary to the tech mania. Here is an  example of that market and how the five tech stocks dominate.

 the SPX also sold off, below it kissed its upper trendline and retreated.

 Next the DOW retreats as well.

 Note all three are hourly charts. A reversal after all the hoopla, should be significant.

Silver and gold fell today and should fall further. 

 Bond yields will eventually move much higher regardless of what March thinks or says. 

Major Retailers Are Cratering, Restuarants not Much Better

 6/2/2026

 Top to bottom, Walmart, Tractor Supply, Home Depot, Lowes

while the market remains crazy for tech it shuns mainstream retail, all of which are making money

This seems to foretell bad times ahead for retailers.

Restaurants are out to lunch so to speak, take a look

Again top to bottom

Walmart, Wendys down 8% just today, Chipolte Mexican Grill,  Costco which should have been in the first group but really food makes up a lot of its sales

MCD is adding upscale shicken while pushing  low cost meals, will either rescue this decline?

Just saying the heartbeat of America is not looking well, retail and restaurants 

So Much For Warsh Independence

 6/2/2026

Trump goes from Marsh Independence to lower credit rates now 

The Markets Got Way ahead of Themselves

 6/1/226

SUMMER OF WAR
IRAN THREATENS NEW STRIKES ON ISRAEL
CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES
OIL SURGES
MISSILES FL 

 

 

Horror Takes Center Stage

 6/1/2026

 

 

Even if this heavy skewing towards Gen Z and Gen Alpha, combined with good but not stellar audience scores like a B- on CinemaScore and 74% on Rotten Tomatoes leads to a more frontloaded theatrical run, “Backrooms” has already more than turned a theatrical profit and will easily pass the $191 million global total of “Marty Supreme” in the coming week to become A24’s highest grossing film ever.

And with a clear sequel hook at the end, “Backrooms” has everything it needs to become A24’s first tentpole franchise in its 13-year history. 

 

With this strong opening for a horror film, one might think that the other horror title storming theaters right now, “Obsession,” would have its momentum undercut. Not so. In its third weekend, Curry Barker’s hit saw its weekend grosses increase yet again by 10% to $26.4 million for a running total of $104.7 million domestic, an all-time record for Focus Features, along with $148 million worldwide. 

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From a socionomic point of view, modern horor films began in the  1930s with Frankenstein, and later Dracula, a well dressed vampire, and Wolf Man, In hard times people like to be scared. The bear market of  1973-74 featured the Exorcist, billed as the most horrific film ever made. Now we have Backrooms and Obsession, classic low budget young driector, think, Tarantino,and of course Hollywood never saw it coming.

Point being interest in horror movies is coming as the markets hit all time highs. Something is amiss here.

I have officially given up on calling a market top but stuff like this cannot be over looked.