Markets Continue to Fall

 3/20/2026

Markets Continue to Fall

 

For months this column has warned of an impending top. Tops finally occurred as follows, NDX 10/29/2025, SPX 1/28/226, and INDU 2/10/2026. All three have closed below their respective 200 day moving averages. This statistic is featured on most popular charting programs. As it is widely known, it has probably lost some of its value. I thought the market would rally as it is quite oversold but now, down again today. Like most days, the decline is modest but unrelenting. There is little to no concern  among  investors about the decline.

The INDU is down 4,749 points from its February 10 high or 9.3% in 40 calendar days. The media asserts this to the Iran Conflict and there is some truth to that but, notice the conflict began February 28, well after the highs cited above.

The Iran Conflict (what should we call it?) is not popular with the EU, not our war, nor particularly with the American public. One reason is the lack of a Reagan type Tear This Wall Down Mr. Gorbachev speech, then delivered in Berlin. This week Iran executed one of their 19 year-old wrestling champ, one of thousands now recently put to death. Throw off Trump comments like ‘we may bomb again for the fun of it’ do nothing to rally support. Unless the tone changes from sounding like a 12-year old playing a computer game to a serious War Time president, expect Trump ratings to continue falling.

Interest rates have begun to rise. The Ten-Year Treasury Note jumped 2.3% today, Friday, to 4.38%. This will eventually surpass the previous high at 5.03%. Note that that both bond stock prices are falling together.  Kevin Hassett, economic adviser to Trump, continues to ignore or claim this is transitory, have we heard that before?  This will ratchet mortgage rates higher as the ten-year rate is benchmark for mortgages.

Despite Iran claims of $180 Brent Oil, all things considered, the market is taking all this in stride. Current April futures trade at $97.69 for West Texas, up $1.55 today. November futures, important as this is the date of the midterm elections, trade at $79.05. Today that price has dropped 63 cents. A lower price seven months out suggests the market sees an end to the conflict and a resumption of more normal prices. Admittedly, $79 is well above pre-February 28 prices. But distant prices are significantly lower not higher than today.

Silver had had a significant sell-off from $96 to $69.35. today. It is down a modest $2 while gold is off $50.  Prices may decline further but it is too late to bet on lower prices. These markets are only for robust investors, read gamblers, given the volatility.

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