FED - No Danger of Contagion

 3/30/2026

A Yahoo article today

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that he does not see a risk of contagion in private credit markets at this point that could spread to the wider financial system, though the central bank is watching the situation closely.

"We're looking for connections to the banking system, and things that might, you know, result in contagion. We don't see those right now," Powell said at a Harvard University event.

"What we see is a correction … and certainly there'll be people losing money and things like that, but it doesn't seem to have the makings of a broader systemic event," he said.

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For months on this site, I have been warning about just sch an occurrence. Now markets are down 7-10% in about a month. Here's an example of the Private Equity market, yeah the one  Jerome is not having the makings of a broader systemic event.

 Gee Jerome while the market has recently visited all time highs, OWL is down 64% in 15 months, right no problem here! and the list includes heavy weights like Blackrock and Morgan Stanley, not the checking account bank Jamie runs, the fancy investment bank bearing J P Morgan's name. I sugges you click the link to read the article in full.

 Well It's on Page One 

Only 5% redemption allowed per quarter. 

 

When did anyone, let alone the FED Chair,  speaking at an economic event at Harvard tell the crowd to get out while they can and stuff it in T Bills like Buffet just did, uh, I don't recall. 

Here is an up lc\close ten day view of what is happening, ie watch the market not the guys paid to lie to you. 

 

I have drawn a red down trend line but looking this morning I realized the 50 day moving average has been a reliable top. Here the market  sold off for the first three days, the rallied back to the MA, and then fell hard for three days, Last week I remarked the market was oversold enough on this chart for a rally, Today, well

 High  6427 

Low 6316, 

Close  6343,  84 point drop high to low. 

Still the hourly chart PMO is trying to bottom.

Trump claims to have blown Iran away but ships fear transiting the Strait, how can that be? WTIC topped $100 today. At the Energy Conference in Houston last week, the energy secretary urged those present to drill more while assuring consumers this oil price pop is shall we say transitory, where have we heard that word before? The Energy companies wisely replied why bet on transitory?

Trump may be a successful real estate developer or a guy who has his creditors too fearful to repossess. He is not an expert in manufacturing or energy. Hence the tariff idea of bringing back Mfg or lowering energy costs is up in smoke.  

I remain short in PSQ, HDGE and others looking for a rally to add more shorts.  

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The markets are running away to the downside in a third Elliott Wave, and so the question, where to add?

One of the oldest ideas in adding is dollar averaging. Admit we do not know all hte highs and lows in advance. Decide on how much in total to commit, then divide in to sections in a timely fashion and commit equal amounts of money thru specific time periods. The idea is to buy fewer shares at high prices and more at lower prices. Whatever the longer trend is down, now matter what James McIntosh says in the WSj