3/13/2026
Cutting thru the Clutter
The war in the Mid East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market
International Energy Administration, Monthly Report
There is a lot of misinformation floating around regarding the, uh, Iran conflict and this is a great example. Was the author of this report even alive during the dual 1973-4 or 1979 embargo? That was a real disruption. The US was dependent on Mid-east, read OPeC, oil, and they knew it. Closing the spigot meant gas lines and odd/even day rationing. Today the US is an energy exporter and there are no lines at the gas pump. Pump price is up about sixty cents. The real crisis is in California where the price is about $5.00.
Suppose we had a crystal ball and could buy oil and gasoline at next November (read mid-term election) prices? Such a crystal ball exists in the form of crude oil futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange of CME. April futures are actually down $1.29 today, trading at $94.44. November futures, surprise, can be had for $76.52, about $18 less. The markets are pricing in a return to more normal times.
Front month RBOB gasoline (no taxes or destination charge) trads for $2.98 today. November trades for $2.29, a whopping 70 cents lower.
The market message is the anticipation of lower prices. This is far more reliable evidence than comments from Iran’s Mullah of the week or Pete Hegseth. There is no shortage of gasoline, no thanks to the climate crisis lobby which would power your car with solar cells.
Last week this column noted that the high in the DOW occurred on February 10 at 50,512. To date that is a decline of 3,794 points. The decline began before the February 28 conflict. The NDX peaked at 6,182 10/29/2025. The SPX topped January 28 at 7,002. Save these dates for everyone telling you that the conflict caused the drop in prices.
Momentum indicators such as moving average convergence divergence MACD suggest indexes should bottom this next week. Futures are up modestly this Friday. Expect the buy the dip crowd to come in next week with a rise in prices. A recoup o 50 to 61% the drop to date seems reasonable.
Mortgage rates have risen to 6.11%. the ten-year treasury note has risen from 3.97% to 4.27 % . This is in line with our expectation of higher I interest rates.
One economist puts the US national debt not at $39 trillion but $100 trillion. Accounting for off balance sheet entitlements like social security and medical care, results in a much higher number.
Gold and silver seem to have calmed with prices a smidge lower.
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