Four Days Down

 3/13/2026

Let's start with the SPX.

 Understand that success in the market is not a matter of being optimistic or pessimistic, it is a matter of being realistic. Despite the wide spread belief of a perma bull market,  I showed that the major indexes INDU SPX NDX have all been in a broadening top formation. The thing to watch is the coming breakdown out of that formation.  This has now occurred  in SPX and INDU. But first let's look at the last few days of SPX. Note the SPX is only about 100 points above the November low.  Given the descent of the PMO, SPX may well make a stand at  a return to the Nov low and rally just as it did March 10. I expect it to eventually fall to new lows.. 

After the March 10 low the SPX rallied to close just under the lower range bar, and then it was the kiss good-bye. This failure is significant, never mind the Iran conflict.

 

Weekly charts are always more important than daily. On this weekly chart, the descent is just getting underway.

 The index has broken all three Fibonacci moving averages and closed near the low of today's range. A small rally this morning failed.  

 

SOX Semi Conductor Index

The SOX index used to be the tech go to chart. Amid the mania for AI, one does not hear much about SOX anymore. But here it is topping right on time. Another bear market confirmation, RSi at top and PMO at bottom both turning down.  

 

 

 

NYSE Daily Advance Decline

 

 The daily trend has shifted for sure. It has a longer way to reach the November low but again the trend is down.

 

Weekly NYSE Advance Decline

 

 Returning to the November low will take out all our moving averages and further cement the bear case.

 

 Notice PMO at bottom just now turned negative. 

 

Bonds and Interest Rates

 

Ten Year Yield

 

 

Rates have jumped from  about  3.96 to 4.285% this month. We are at te previous high in late January so it may take some time to take out that level. But again the trend is clear, and higher rates lie ahead. See the earlier post that the real national debt is more like $100T than 39T. 

 

ZSL Bear Silver Fund jumps 10% today, looks like a third wave underway. 

 

 Silver is declining amid the concern over oil prices. See my earlier post today showing November futures  $18 below today's oil quote. Silver traders must be seeing this as well.  Sliver should decline to the $65-70 level. At that point  I will exit, Silver is in a long term fourth correction. Bond and stocks on the bear side are a better spot to play.