Quotes From TeddyRoosevelt

 3/30/2026

 

“Knowing what's right doesn't mean much unless you do what's right.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “Character, in the long run, is the decisive factor in the life of an individual and of nations alike.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

“Nothing worth having comes easy.”
― Theodore Roosevelt

 

 “Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.” 

 

 “Nothing in the world is worth having or worth doing unless it means effort, pain, difficulty… I have never in my life envied a human being who led an easy life. I have envied a great many people who led difficult lives and led them well.”

 

 

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “Never throughout history has a man who lived a life of ease left a name worth remembering.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 

A Tuesday 3/30 Snap back Rally

 3/30/2026

Recall we were looking fora rally given the over sold nature of the short term charts and here it is. The media of course says it is Trump's latest comment, we may quit while Iran controls Hormuz, how this is a cause fo celebration I do not know.'

 So far the 50 dau MA has contained the rally in the SPX, the INDU over shot it a bit. Hdge is the flip side, a bear fund of the general market. 

 We will see if there is any follow thru rally tomorrow. $26 or regular from the one-quarter level of my gauge took it to 3/4, not full, and that is making lots of Republicans nervous about the mid terms. 

Chart patterns for energy service and energy companies are starting to look toppy. This suggests the market, that amazing magic hand, is seeing at least a pause in energy panic.  

If the US stopped hostilities tomorrow, the oil price would not immediately return to $65. There is too much uncertainty for that. And if Trump leaves Iran in control of Hormuz,  that uncertainty will be permanent. 

 so far I view this as an opportunity to add to shorts, we shall see tomorrow. 

Daily hits on the weblog have nearly doubled from last month. I welcome comments about your take on the posts or how this reading is of advantageous to your investing.  

dennis.elam@att.net 

 

FED - No Danger of Contagion

 3/30/2026

A Yahoo article today

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that he does not see a risk of contagion in private credit markets at this point that could spread to the wider financial system, though the central bank is watching the situation closely.

"We're looking for connections to the banking system, and things that might, you know, result in contagion. We don't see those right now," Powell said at a Harvard University event.

"What we see is a correction … and certainly there'll be people losing money and things like that, but it doesn't seem to have the makings of a broader systemic event," he said.

________________________________-

For months on this site, I have been warning about just sch an occurrence. Now markets are down 7-10% in about a month. Here's an example of the Private Equity market, yeah the one  Jerome is not having the makings of a broader systemic event.

 Gee Jerome while the market has recently visited all time highs, OWL is down 64% in 15 months, right no problem here! and the list includes heavy weights like Blackrock and Morgan Stanley, not the checking account bank Jamie runs, the fancy investment bank bearing J P Morgan's name. I sugges you click the link to read the article in full.

 Well It's on Page One 

Only 5% redemption allowed per quarter. 

 

When did anyone, let alone the FED Chair,  speaking at an economic event at Harvard tell the crowd to get out while they can and stuff it in T Bills like Buffet just did, uh, I don't recall. 

Here is an up lc\close ten day view of what is happening, ie watch the market not the guys paid to lie to you. 

 

I have drawn a red down trend line but looking this morning I realized the 50 day moving average has been a reliable top. Here the market  sold off for the first three days, the rallied back to the MA, and then fell hard for three days, Last week I remarked the market was oversold enough on this chart for a rally, Today, well

 High  6427 

Low 6316, 

Close  6343,  84 point drop high to low. 

Still the hourly chart PMO is trying to bottom.

Trump claims to have blown Iran away but ships fear transiting the Strait, how can that be? WTIC topped $100 today. At the Energy Conference in Houston last week, the energy secretary urged those present to drill more while assuring consumers this oil price pop is shall we say transitory, where have we heard that word before? The Energy companies wisely replied why bet on transitory?

Trump may be a successful real estate developer or a guy who has his creditors too fearful to repossess. He is not an expert in manufacturing or energy. Hence the tariff idea of bringing back Mfg or lowering energy costs is up in smoke.  

I remain short in PSQ, HDGE and others looking for a rally to add more shorts.  

______________________

The markets are running away to the downside in a third Elliott Wave, and so the question, where to add?

One of the oldest ideas in adding is dollar averaging. Admit we do not know all hte highs and lows in advance. Decide on how much in total to commit, then divide in to sections in a timely fashion and commit equal amounts of money thru specific time periods. The idea is to buy fewer shares at high prices and more at lower prices. Whatever the longer trend is down, now matter what James McIntosh says in the WSj 

Trump's Ability to Calm Markets Fades

 3/29/2026

this article  uses the term put, in brokerage terms that is a bet a market is going lower. I think the article means his ability to put whatever market where he wants it is fading, indeed. Major markets are down about9-11%, media talk for a correction. This site has been telling you that since NDX high 10/29/2025. The media will be shocked, see Capt Renault in Casablanca, when theyreach - 20%.

 

Trouble in Vegas - An Early Warning Sign

 3/28/226

Trouble in Vegas portens broader economic problems 

Yes the high capital investments in Vegas require lots of volume - every week the  planes must unload thousands of tourists, a slack in the numbers is big trouble in a high over head operation.

 

It reminds me of the Riverwalk in SA. I would guess the rents on restuarants are nose bleed high, a slight drop in business where the tables must turn so many times each day cannot be sustained. 

Barbara chalmers Stals $29M from prominent Texas Family

 3/28./2026

 

https://www.gma-cpa.com/blog/texas-sized-fraud-bookkeeper-embezzles-29m-from-texas-family

Here is a student analysis of this fraud.

 

The case of Barbara Chalmers clearly connects to what we learned this past week about check fraud. It shows how easy it is for fraud to continue without proper controls and when there is too much trust and not enough monitoring. As a trusted bookkeeper, Chalmers was able to write at least 175 fraudulent checks to herself and deposit them into her personal accounts without raising suspicion for a long time. One major flag in this situation was the repeated checks written to the same person over time. Another warning sign was the lack of independent review of bank statements and check images. If someone had been regularly monitoring these records, the unusual payments and patterns may have been discovered much earlier. Chalmers also created false documents to hide the true cash balances and provided misleading information to tax preparers misstating the year-end cash on-hand numbers for the various accounts she was embezzling. This case shows why it is important to separate duties so that no single person controls authorizing, recording and reviewing transactions. It also shows why businesses should require dual signatures for large checks and ensure that bank statements are reviewed by someone other than the person handling the money. As Chapter 6 brings out; reviewing bank statements, check images and reconciliations on a regular basis can help detect suspicious activity early.

______________________

The article lists several ways to prevent this kind of theft.  

I would add enforced vacations for all employees, family and third party.  A better idea is to have an independent CPA reconcile the bank statements. Presence of an independent is in itself a warning to would be embezzlers. Notice th is was not a young person looking for a quick gain. Ms. Chalmers will no doubt do prison time at age 74 but the money will still be gone. This is also a warning that untrained individuals like Ms. Collins, can be fooled. It is amazing this amount of money escaped her attention.  

the State of the Markets

 3/28/2026

Stocks came into 2026 riding AI momentum, a more stable trade environment, and hopes for lower interest rates. The S&P 500 hit a record high in late January.

With two trading days left in the first quarter, the situation looks significantly more challenging.

The stock market looks broken, and it's far from clear as to how to fix it.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down over 7% for the year. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) is in correction territory. The VIX (^VIX)— known as Wall Street's "fear index" — is trading at its highest level in a year, cresting the 30 mark.

Bond yields (^TNX) are soaring. Gold (GC=F) is off $500 from its record high reached in January. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is languishing near $65,000. International stocks are underperforming US stocks once again. And markets have taken the possibility of rate cuts this year completely off the table; a rate hike in 2026 now seems more likely than a cut.

Geopolitical headlines continue to overwhelm the news flow, but little this week seemed to arc toward either outcome on the energy front. And experts from inside the industry still think the risks from this conflict are being understated by markets.

_____________________

those are the facts , now the expert analysis

______________________

On Thursday, one of our favorite market voices — Truist Wealth chief investment officer Keith Lerner — did just about this, telling clients in a note that "measured cash deployment is warranted."

This is wealth adviser speak for: "Don't be afraid of the stock market."

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, argued the market's reaction to the US-Iran conflict is an overreaction.

(Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.)

"Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics," Sløk wrote.

In his view, inflation's rise will be temporary, rates will head lower, and the AI tailwind for the US economy won't be taken off course by this conflict.

An outline of what's happening in markets right now doesn't have much good to offer, but putting it all down in one place does offer a glimpse of what is needed to turn things around.

And the Sløk outline, let's call it, says that what risk assets — the stock market, bitcoin, etc. — need to see in order to work again is, at a minimum, stabilizing oil prices, preferably a decline in oil prices. Until then, we hold on.

Myles Udland is Yahoo Finance's Head of News.

 

 

Telescoping

 3/27/2026

Telescoping is the process of looking at the near term and then stepping back to weekly and monthly to get a longer perspective of what the market is telling us.  

Daily 

Weekly

 Monthly

 

Daily = April is Liberation Day, Trump's sock market crash from his ill founded tariffs, his advisers prevailed leading to a tariff back off and a rally into Oct thru Feb 1. 

Weekly - There is a gap at  20,500, let's look for an interruption of the downtrend, but the momentum is building to the April low.

Monthly

Monthly charts are far slower than day or weekly. So a change in trend is significant. 

 the box on left highlights the move above the PMO averages. the red arrow at right highlights the movw below that average, ie we have a long time to go before the cross over to the upside. 

Hourly

 

I can count one down, two up, three down, foor sideways, and now a fifth cown, let's wait for a bigger commitment. this should lead to an A B C correction to the upside. 

 30 minute - yes we are close to a short term trend change

 

Counter Trend Rally Ending

 3/24/2026

INDU Hourly

 The early rally faded to close negative. Note INDU is still below the down trend line. This should about do it for the counter trend rally in all major INDU SPX NDX indexes. Note hourly PMO is topping.

Sprtt 

 Sprott Silver, the actual metal, is nearing the low of an A B C correction from its all time high at 12 for sliver but 37+ fpr PSLV. Yes risky but I am watching for a low.

TBF Weekly is just getting going, add positions

 More on Wed after close, notice no one is talking bear market but a few of us.

GAO Disclaims Ooinion on US Balance Sheet

 3/24/2026

GAO Disclaims Opinion on US Balance Sheet 

Disclaimers are rare in that they do no one any good. But here we are.  

 The Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a disclaimer of opinion on the U.S. government’s FY 2025 financial statements — the 29th consecutive year it has been unable to determine whether the statements are fairly presented. This is primarily due to serious, ongoing financial management problems at the Department of Defense and weaknesses in accounting for interagency transactions.

Meet the TEsLA Semi EV / Nisan Leaf

 3/23/2026

Jay Leno Drives the EV Semi 

Tesla  claims  500 miles on the heavier version and 350 range on the in  town version.

I have been skeptical but am coming around. The EV really eliminates a lot of maintenance and complexity, consider what is eliminated in a car or truck

 Radiator, fans, hoses, water pump, anti-freeze and water

Gasoline or diesel tank, fuel lines, fuel pump

Fuel injectors, air cleaner

Exhaust manifold, pipes, muffler, catalytic convertor

Alternator

Oil pan, oil pump, oil filter, oil

Nissan Gets it Right with 3rd Gen Leaf Nissan Leaf Video this is cool!

 

A Monday Snap Back Rally

 3/23/2026

After four weeks of negative closes, a vigorous snap bakc rally occurred today. It reached INDU 1,000 but settled lower by day's end.  such rallies are spectacular and assure the bulls the long term rally is intact. 

 Today's rally see far right, kissed the lower boundary but did not close over it.  INDU and SPX did not come as far.  The news was more dithering by Trump on Iran. No doubt those running in November are screaming for an end to this and he seems to be giving them that.  A mistake as the WSJ pointed out today but...

 the rally may extend another day or two before the decline resumes. 

The pullback in  PSQ was not remarkable.

 Bond yields pulled back modestly the target reamains 5.02%.

Gold and silver may have had an exhaustion selling climax, we shall see, as mentioned these are barely trade able markets

 

More tomorrow 

TehTrouble with Mainstream Financial Advice

 3/20/2026

 

Here  is the latest from Sitka Pacific, a financial advisor and manager 

The letter is typical of mainstream advice. The discussion is on the latest political development, tariffs, and of course the FED. Actually they do display a very germane graph, and then ignore its message.

 the message is that the 39 year cycle of interest rates has bottomed. The trend is now up

Rates rose from 1942 to  1981, rates fell from 1981 right in March 2020. The Ten Year Treasury Note bottomed at a .5% miniscule yield. In six years it is already 4.3%. the chart shows global yields which are lower than the US with its $39 T admitted debt but possibly $100T considering entitlements.  Actually the next comment is the most important in the letter. 

 In 2025, there were very few markets which detracted from the performance of a globally diversified portfolio. Such a golden market environment is relatively uncommon, and it is unlikely it will be repeated any time soon.

Exactly 2025 was the fifth wave of many.  My last post listed the market highs and dates since last October 29, 2025. I uite agree that the bull market of April 2025 to thisebruary will be repeated any tie soon. 

 

Yet if market history is any guide, the pivot that unfolded during the first half of this decade ushered in a market environment that will last for some time to come. Leadership changes in equity market and currency performance, like we have seen recently, usually lead to a market regime that endures 8–10 years. Pivots in bond yields and inflation, as we have also seen in recent years, have, in the past, led to a new market regime that endures for a decade, or longer.

We anticipated these shifts in the market landscape, and while there will certainly be volatility along the way, our approach is well suited to this new market environment.

 I quite agree this is a regime that will last  8-10 years, but not the one they anticipate. 

INDU is down 9.3% in a calendar 40 days, a new regime indeed. 

thanks for reading ProfessorElam, it should safeguard your wealth unlike mainstream services.  

 

the Unintended Consequences of the Iran Conflict

 3/20/2026

M ajor General Paul Eaton 

 

Internal Audit at the Missions Ball Park

 3/20/2026

Register here: https://cvent.me/2mboa1.

 

 

 

Markets Continue to Fall

 3/20/2026

Markets Continue to Fall

 

For months this column has warned of an impending top. Tops finally occurred as follows, NDX 10/29/2025, SPX 1/28/226, and INDU 2/10/2026. All three have closed below their respective 200 day moving averages. This statistic is featured on most popular charting programs. As it is widely known, it has probably lost some of its value. I thought the market would rally as it is quite oversold but now, down again today. Like most days, the decline is modest but unrelenting. There is little to no concern  among  investors about the decline.

The INDU is down 4,749 points from its February 10 high or 9.3% in 40 calendar days. The media asserts this to the Iran Conflict and there is some truth to that but, notice the conflict began February 28, well after the highs cited above.

The Iran Conflict (what should we call it?) is not popular with the EU, not our war, nor particularly with the American public. One reason is the lack of a Reagan type Tear This Wall Down Mr. Gorbachev speech, then delivered in Berlin. This week Iran executed one of their 19 year-old wrestling champ, one of thousands now recently put to death. Throw off Trump comments like ‘we may bomb again for the fun of it’ do nothing to rally support. Unless the tone changes from sounding like a 12-year old playing a computer game to a serious War Time president, expect Trump ratings to continue falling.

Interest rates have begun to rise. The Ten-Year Treasury Note jumped 2.3% today, Friday, to 4.38%. This will eventually surpass the previous high at 5.03%. Note that that both bond stock prices are falling together.  Kevin Hassett, economic adviser to Trump, continues to ignore or claim this is transitory, have we heard that before?  This will ratchet mortgage rates higher as the ten-year rate is benchmark for mortgages.

Despite Iran claims of $180 Brent Oil, all things considered, the market is taking all this in stride. Current April futures trade at $97.69 for West Texas, up $1.55 today. November futures, important as this is the date of the midterm elections, trade at $79.05. Today that price has dropped 63 cents. A lower price seven months out suggests the market sees an end to the conflict and a resumption of more normal prices. Admittedly, $79 is well above pre-February 28 prices. But distant prices are significantly lower not higher than today.

Silver had had a significant sell-off from $96 to $69.35. today. It is down a modest $2 while gold is off $50.  Prices may decline further but it is too late to bet on lower prices. These markets are only for robust investors, read gamblers, given the volatility.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

 

 

 

 

Brooklyn Chandler Willy, former financial adviser, Pleads Guilty

 3/20/2026

Ex-San Antonio financial adviser Brooklynn Chandler Willy pleads guilty in Ponzi scheme

 An emotional and chagrined Brooklyn Chandler Willy, the former financial adviser who peddled her wares on radio and online, pleaded guilty Thursday to federal charges that she defrauded clients, including some who invested in what turned out to be a Ponzi scheme.

 Appearing before U.S. District Judge Fred Biery, she entered pleas to six counts of wire fraud and one count each of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, engaging in monetary transactions involving assets derived from illegal activities, aggravated identity theft and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

 

“I took money,” Willy, 46, said, with cajoling from Biery. “I was a crook. I’m very sorry.”

Some of Willy’s victims packed the courtroom for her plea hearing. After it concluded, a blond-haired woman snapped at Willy, “I hope you rot in prison.”

Willy remains free on a $40,000 unsecured bond and will not be sentenced until possibly this fall, after her two co-defendants’ trial is over. The wire fraud charges alone each carry a penalty of up to 20 years in prison. 

 

Willy owned Queen B Advisors LLC, which did business as Texas Financial Advisory. It had offices in Stone Oak, Boerne, New Braunfels, Corpus Christi and Victoria before it shut down in late 2024 following her arrest. The firm reported managing nearly $118 million in assets on behalf of about 620 clients at the time.

She pitched her investment prowess on radio and television, but in 2020 ran afoul of the Texas State Securities Board for engaging in the sale of “alternative investments” without being registered as a securities dealers or as an agent of a dealer.

After the San Antonio Express-News reported in 2023 on mounting lawsuits filed by her clients alleging she had committed fraud and violated securities laws, the FBI and the IRS launched a criminal investigation.

Federal prosecutors initially charged her during the ongoing investigation with impeding a grand jury proceeding, making a false statement and aggravated identity theft. She spent seven weeks in jail before being released on bond in January 2025.

 

Then, in July, a grand jury handed up a four-count indictment in a second case against Willy. She was charged with securities fraud and three conspiracy counts. 

The indictment also named Joshua Allen and Michael Cox, who co-owned Lubbock-based investment firm Ferrum Capital LLC. They have pleaded not guilty and are scheduled to go to trial Aug. 10.

RELATED: Brooklynn Chandler Willy’s investment advisory firm has permanently shuttered as she remains jailed

Willy, Allen and Cox used Ferrum and similarly named companies “to steal millions of dollars from hundreds of victims,” the indictment alleges.

 

Willy’s plea agreement only identifies six of her victims. They invested more than $3 million with her. She used some of the money for herself while paying interest to others, the hallmark of a Ponzi scheme.

Roy Barrera Jr., one of Willy’s defense lawyers, told Biery that she and her husband already have turned over more than $900,000 in restitution to the government.

“My client’s family is prepared to make monthly restitution payments north of $1,000, and possibly up to $5,000 to $10,000 a month, for as long as the court and the government are willing to commit her and her family to make that restitution,” Barrera said. “So it is the objective of my client, her husband and her family to pay back every single dollar owed to the victims in this matter that she is responsible for, judge, before she is sent to prison.”

 

Barrera then said he was referring to the six victims identified in the charging document. 

Blackwell said there are more than six victims and the restitution she will owe encompasses more than just them. The actual amount hasn’t been determined yet.

Willy blamed her actions on “greed.”

Toward the conclusion of the hearing, the judge, who appeared by video, ordered Willy to turn around and address her victims in the courtroom.

 

“I wish I had been able to talk to you before this,” she said, her voice cracking. “I’m very sorry … I hate that we’re going through this. I hate that I’ve put you through this. I am doing everything in my power to pay (you) back. I mean, everything that I can do and give. I’m so committed to making right what I’ve done wrong.

“I think about you all the time,” she added. “I hate that you’re going through this. I hate that this has affected your life, your retirements, your families’ lives.”

Willy appears to be involved with a marketing firm using the name Brook Chandler, according to a LinkedIn profile.

 

It’s unclear if Willy will testify against Allen and Cox during their trial.

 

 

 

Stocks Come Off Their Worst of the Day

 3/19/2026

The sell off in stocks is getting over extended, the DOW came off its worst today suggesting at least a short rally to the downtrend line.

Silver looks like an exhaustion sell off, and ZSL the bear silver fund looks like the opposite, and exhaustion buy at the top.IO exited ZSL with a profit. I feel like the Exxon Exec who told Trump 

Venezuela was uninvestible, I feel the same about silver. 
 

Internal Audit at the Missions

 3/19/2026

The flyer does not say but this event is sponsored by the SA Internal Auditors

Only costs to park, admission and snacks free

__________________________

Meet The Pros - Networking at the Missions Baseball Park is almost here!

Tuesday, April 7, 2026  5:00 pm - 8:00 PM Missions Baseball Stadium Free to register and comes with admission, food, and drinks. Parking is $8 to be paid by the attendee.  Limited to 25 students and 25 professionals.

Register Now

Check out the event website!

 

The Bear Market Unfolds

 3/18/226

The hallmark of a bear market is the repetition of failed rallies. Each rally convinces bulls the bull market they enjoyed is still alive. But each rally disappoints only to bring the index lower. The SPX since its high  1/28 at 7,002 is a case in point. 

The  blue lines represent the short term rallies. The red line is the actual trend which is down. 

NDX

Of the three  INDU SPX NDX, the INDU is leading the way down, the NDX has yet to catch up. 

the high was 26,182 on October 29, above the upper blue line in a throw over.  The 24,425 close today is below the lower blue line, the market is playing with and testing lower support. It should give way shortly, and in a big way.

There is no panic among market experts writing about the current sell off. By the time tey come around, billions will have been lost. 

PSQ Bear NDX fund

PSQ peaked at the NDX bottom of Liberation Day, nice moniker Donald. It has formed a saucer shaped bottom. The MAs are converging singling a change in trend. The PAR SAR has given a buy signal, blue dots below the price.  Time to accumulate PSQ.
 

Silver

April silver closed at  $75.25. this might be a stopping point given the hard sell-off today. We shall see. ZSL is either at the end of an ABC up or in a third wave  of five. Tomorrow will tell. 

 

dennis.elam@att.net
 

No Follow thru 3/17

 3/17/2026

the 400+ move Monday had no follow thru Tuesday, Here is the five day view

 High was 47,428 but te close was 46,993 a downward swing of  435 points. If you believe news events move the market, EU's rebuff of Trump's request for help did nothing for confidence in finding an end to the Iran conflict. 

Stock value to GDP highest ever. Notice the long 1972-1984 period of stagnation in the stock market. 

Few if any 'financial advisors' experienced this drought of interest in the market. Granted commissions were high and now they are about zilch, something else to consider.  

 

After a gap up in TLT 20 yr bonds, no real follow thru there either.  Nothing came of an expected four day rally in stocks and bonds. 

ZSL gained 4.7%, I continue to hold.

 

Longer Short Term Rally Ahead

 3/16/2026

The short term rally last week was certainly that but we have something that should last till the end of this week, it started today.  

I have not recommended adding to short funds, here is why.

Hedge a bear fund of the markets 

 PMO suggests a near term top here. Our weekend update showed markets near their 200 day moving average, it makes sense they will attempt a rally here.

SPX 195 Minute

 Notice the down u[ down up pattern here, stair stepping down from the February high. This is classic bear market action.

Bonds are rallying a bit that makes the Financial SPDR a good short term bet.

 TLT a fund of 20 year bonds would be another good choice

 I will be updating daily this week. 

201 - After 83 Years, PwC partners Flub Best Picture

 3/14/2026

These two are Out of the Oscars 

Actually I am amazed PwC kept the job. Taking photographs  with his cell phone which was a no no, 

Brian Culliman hands the preesneter the best actress award which was Emma Stone for La La Land

 

but the Best Picture winner was Moonlight, whoops, wrong envelope.

brian Culliman and Martha Ruiz made the first error since PwC was hired in  1935.

They are still with the firm but NOT having anything to do with Oscar counting or presenting.  

Here's the video of the Mix Up 

 

CPAs at the Oscars

 3/15/2026

This is how the ballots are counted and the envelopes are presented 

Moving Average Sell Idicator / Privaet Equity Blunder

 3/14/2026

Computer algorithm programs use a variety of indicators to issue buy and sell signals. A popular series is the moving average, featured on most stock market charting programs. Now  SPX NDX INDU top to bottom, all sit just above their respective moving averages. It is quite possible that penetrating those averages to the downside will result in widespread sell programs. The trend is your friend. 

 NDX has lagged but is liable to catch up this week, lagged n moving to the downside that is. 

Here is the flip side of the NDX, the PSQ,bear NDX fund, has crossed its 200 day MA to the upside. Hello buy signal.  31.49 is higher than the MA at  31.20. 

All four bear stock funds PSQ - NASD

DWSH - Broad market

HDGE - Broad market

SH - SPX

PS - NDX 

have crossed their 200 day MAs to the upside

9/25/2025 Trump signed an Exec Order allowing 401Ks to buy private equity shares, how is that working out. Below is Blue Owl, a prominent PE firm. OWL was under its 200 day MA when the order was signed. Hmm I thought Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent were Wall Street whize kids, did they not notice. 

Blue Owl Restricts Redemptions - the inability to retrieve your money is an early warning sign of trouble. 

 tThree years prior Owl had achieved 68 77and 80% annual returns. and then the little guys, retail investors, got in. Limiting redemptions will be especially galling for late comers as the returns sag while redemptions are limited.This is another sign of a massive market top, buyer beware. Note owl is trading  way below Liberation Day April 2025 low. 

 

KKR, whoops - already trading below the April 2025 Liberation  Day Low! A 41% drop since December! OwI and KKR are  Early Warning Indicators.

 

Ten-Year  T Note Price has already moved under its 200 day MA. I don't think the bond market is subject to near as many algorithms as the stock market. Still it marks  a significant  mile market in teh bond bear market.

 Hmm the recent spike in the price, peaking in March was the result of the FED cutting short rates. A Judge threw out the charge against Jerome for lying about the cost of constructing the new FED building, a cheap shot indeed on Trump's part. I thought Jeanine  Between Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, the FED, and naming near everything for himself, he has his hands full.  Too full I expect. 

I thought Jeanine Pirro erred in leaving her cushy well paid job on The Five to take the DC Prosecutor job.  Five is  Fox's afternoon answer to the View,Faulkner Focus is the morning retort to The View, Rather  than see trouble in getting poured out in her attempt to harass Jerome,  she doubles down, looking for Bondi's job? 

This week should be most interesting.  

Krysten Sinema - Home Wrecker?

 3/14/2026

 Heather Ammel Sues Krysten over Marriage Break-Up

In a sworn declaration on Thursday, Sinema said the relationship between her and Matthew “became romantic and intimate” at the end of May in 2024. “On May 27, 2024, while Mr. Ammel was on a security detail for me in Sonoma, CA, we were physically intimate for the first time,” she said. “Thereafter, we were physically intimate in mid-June in New York City, NY, in mid-July in Washington, DC, in late-August in Aspen, CO, in lateSeptember in Washington, DC, and in early-October in Phoenix, AZ.”

But, because Sinema, an independent who represented Arizona in the Senate for six years, and Matthew were not physically intimate in North Carolina, Heather cannot sue Sinema in North Carolina, according to a motion filed Thursday by Sinema’s attorney, Steven B. Epstein.

 

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Apparently the grueling routine of being a US Senator is not well as grueling as we might have thought. 

As this is ethics class, an interesting defense that if we were not, uh well, you know, in North  Carolina there is no jurisdiction for the suit. This case is worth following.  

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See 2/25/2026 post for a list of other celebrities with, ah, time on their hands