76 Year Old Janitor Gets School Named for Herself

 Friday 10/30/2026

She got the news rolling out a red carpet with her name on it. 

This is a great ethics lesson. The district recognized someone who is normally overlooked, nice.   Jsut in time for Christmas.

Tech Wreck

 Friday 10/30/2026

No we did not have an official PSQ position but I have heard so many times tech was done, maybe finally. I wonder what the guys at Anthropic, IPO in November, are thinking. Maybe too cute by half, waited a bit too long dangling the big numbers before everyone.

Notie the MAs are converging as they do before a trend change. Don't be surprised by a buy the dip rally monday. 

My Mag Seven Stock Page, I have a few that are not the Mag 7 but in that category

 

End of Day AI Stocks

 there is plenty of fuel to burn the tech pile of stocks. Here is the FINRA margin chart

 As mentioned this morning, $1.5 trillion in borrowed money to buy stocks and no they are not buying Southern Company, the Georgia utility.  that last vertical slope went into tech stocks, uh oh.

Lesson, manias end in an upward parabolic slope. It usually gets reversed. Finally there are simply no buyers left and the trend reverses.  

 

 have constructed ratio charts of the bear vs bull fund in

Hedge Indu

PSQ NDX

SH SPX

 as well as dual charts where both indexes are displayed. Here is the ratio chart of PSQ bear fund vs NDX bull fund. As you can see, it as the bears' day! NDX lost just over 1,000 oiubts or  3.4%. Not to worry this may just be the kick off, in the  2000-2002 eltdown, the tech stocks lost 75% of their value with COMPQ sliding from  5,000 to about  1250. 

Her is what I call a dual chart, PSQ is purple

 TBF which I am long closed down 2 cents, it is bottoming.

Here is an update on our 10 year T bond yield, as predicted it is headed for the trendline

 

As mentioned n the weekly newspaper column already posted, RIG has come alive, we will be adding next week. again all this is a repeat of 1973-74 higher interest rates and oil with inflation. 

In her WSJ column, Peggy Noonan hopes for a wave of rejection for Trump. If it is a small loss he will just cry it was fixed.  We'll see. 

The long plan is to play TBT and TLT, alternating long and short in bonds along with the same in bear stock funds occasionally going long stocks.  Bonds completed a significant decline. We should see a bond rally which makes sense as stocks decline, there will be a rush to safety kn bonds.

The DOW was up in the GLOBEX this morning but lost its mojo with the waterfall decline in tech.  

Here is Intel INTC down 29% today, yikes, well finally....notice the MAs are converging. this is an excellent example of the change in social mood towards tech, wow ihn late June and yikes today. 

 We had 5,660 view this past 30 days, If you are enjoying, or not, the blog I would like to hear from you.  I am open to ideas and suggestions. 

dennis.elam@att.net 

War of the Worlds Oct 30 1938, the original broadcast

 Friday 10/30/2026

Orson Welles makes history

The Rig Count is Up, NDX is Down

 Friday 10/30/2026

The Rig Count is Up

The Baker Hughes US Rig Count is 603 as of October 23, 2026. That is an increase of 53 or 10% increase. This is translating to an increase in energy service stocks. And that translates into an increase in employment in the Permian Basin service sector.

About two years ago I recommended Transocean RIG as it was trading at 50% of book value. No other firm in the world could match its inventory of offshore rigs. RIG promptly collapsed below #3 making it an even better buy. The Iran war bumped it to $7.60 and then it fell to $5.00. the surge in rig count has raised it to $7.00 today. Today it trades at 89% of book value and yes, represents a real value.

Patterson   PTEN has jumped to $13 and trades at 56% of book value. Bell weather Halliburton HAL has risen from $32 to $36, another value.  Those three are far less expensive than the energy service ETF of XES at $114.

West Texas Intermediate WTIC is healthy at $104.11 up $2.00 today.

I suggest reading my free blog www.professorelam.blogspot.com. There I suspected the FED would stand pat and it did this week. TLT an ETF for long dated bonds seems to be peaking. This makes bets on lower bond prices like TBF or TBT a good opportunity.

The conclusion is that oil prices and interest rates are rising. As I have said here, we are replaying the 1973-74 stock meltdown.

Wall Street is finally beginning to doubt the AI boom. I recently mentioned the over leveraged Core Weave CRWV and its $5 B of debt. It tanked 10% today and I do not see value in it.  My page of AI stock price sis glowing red.   All over the chart Space X SPCX dropped 4% today.

Tech heavy NASD 100 NDX dropped a hefty 3% today on a gap down chart move.  The reality of too much debt amid sky expectation is settling into this sector. It looks like a replay of the dot.coms at their peak in March 2000. Lower prices lie ahead.

Margin debt, borrowed money to finance stock purchases, peaked in June at $1.5 trillion, not a misprint.  For context at the bottom of the sub-prime mania in 2009, margin debt was about $200 Billion. That is a 7x plus increase. The unwinding of that debt as tech prices fall will spread to other sectors of the supposedly safe stock market.

Dennis Elam worked in the Permian Basin oil field from 1975-1989. He is an Associate Professor at Texas A & M San Antonio.

 

 

 

 

 

Stocks Consolidating

 1/29/2026

 the SPX has been moving sideways since August. The MAs are slowing converging. 50,87,125 are closing together. This must happen before a significant change in trend. So patience.

Bonds moved up a smidge on the sell-off yesterday. TBT offers a better move than TBF as it is more leveraged. I will add more orders slightlu under the TBT market.

Not much else to report. The next two news events are the mid-terms Tuesday and the Anthropic IPO sometime in November.  Google dropped 10%, 320 to  293, hmm an early warning?

That is $500 B in mkt cap. 

 

Amazon's stock also took a hit on Thursday after it shared results that disappointed investors. Shares of the company fell 6% in after hours stock trading.

Alongside quarterly sales growth of 11%, hitting $201bn, the company shared a staggering cash flow figure of negative $42bn.

That number shows that Amazon is not only spending more money than it makes, but that spending has increased six-fold over the span of three months.

Chief executive Andy Jassy claimed the business was spending in part because it had the chance at, not one, but two businesses that could end up bringing in $1 trillion for Amazon the future.

_____________

Intel INTC -3.62%decrease; down pointing triangle shares plunged more than 20% in after-hours trading Thursday after the company reported disappointing third-quarter results and forecast a prolonged slowdown in personal-computer sales.

 

___________

Right and Anthropic is planning  on a $50T industry according to its red herring to the SEC.

All this smacks of the hopes for dot.coms in late 1999.  Just my two cents. 

10/28 Click here to learn about the Govt Primary Dealer System

 Wed 10/28/2026

As predicted no change 

OK it is 23:471 CST so the day is not over 

Bond Market Trading Hours

Understanding the trading hours for bonds is essential.

• Core Trading Hours — The U.S. bond market operates from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM ET, equivalent to 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM CT.
• Early Closures — On specific holidays, the bond market may close early, typically at 2:00 PM ET (1:00 PM CT).
• Electronic Trading — For highly liquid instruments like U.S. Treasuries, trading can occur for up to 22 hours a day on electronic platforms, pausing briefly around 5:00 PM ET.
• Auction Times — The NYSE conducts bond auctions at 4:00 AM and 8:00 AM ET, with continuous trading following these auctions.

_________________

I sold my TLT around 81.55 yesterday,  here is the result of today's announcement. By the way

Oct 27 - Pct 8 is 19 days and $400 round numbers.  again rounding350 days in a year divided by 20 trading days is 17.5 times that  20 days happens in 350 days so 400/7700 = 5% times 17.5 is 89% return. That would be ideal if the market never stood still as it often does and remember there are holidays and interruptions in trading when things slow so this remains a very idealized number. But it does show that low risk small trades can add up.

Or buying 1,000 shares would have made $4,000.  

 This is what I call a dual chart, OHLC is TLT and purple line is TBF. This is the result I expected and said so which is why I sold TLT yesterday. My below market bid di not happen for TBF, nothing lost and remember that. I did buy a few hundred TBF shares today at the market. 

I will start tracking our results on trading TLT, TBF, and TBT. TBT is a 2x ETF which is leveraged twice that of TLT. 

Date	B/S	Issue		Price	Gain
2026					(Loss)
30-Sep	B	TLT		77.71
27-Oct	S	TLT		81.55	384
6-Oct		TLT	Div		31.16

 

Here is the flip side of price which is yield. RSI top and PMO bottom have jumped, the turn appears to be in. If not we buy TBF cheaper tomorrow. To me this makes a lot more sense than guessing which Ai stock will pop next. 

 

So the market disagrees with the FED, the two dissents, both women by the way, were for higher rates. 

Nothing much to report on stocks. Still no date for the Anthropic IPO. See the article in today's WSJ on how the firm is massaging their numbers to diminish the large losses of the last two years. 

The Nov 2 election may be the next big news event for the stock market.  A DEM take of the House seems certain Senate we shall see. Trump is scurrying around TX trying to boost support for his terrible choice of Paxton 

Why my focus on bonds?  OK the four points in less than a month on TLT is not a big deal. But if we can nail consistent results like that month in month out, there will be larger moves. This does not require reading the AI tea leaves.  Rather dual charts, ratio charts and regular charts simply tracking social mood toward inerest rates. TBF trades at one third or so the price of TLT but easier to buy more at a lower price.  

Not exciting enough, well here are the margin requirments on govt bonds

 

The margin requirement for government bonds typically involves a minimum of 10% of the market value for investment-grade bonds. For non-investment grade bonds, the requirement is the greater of 20% of market value or 7% of face value.

Margin Requirements for Government Bonds

Understanding margin requirements is crucial for bond investors.

• Investment-Grade Bonds — The regulatory minimum margin is 10% of market value.
• Non-Investment Grade Bonds — The minimum margin is either 20% of market value or 7% of face value.
• Purpose of Margin — Margin requirements help mitigate risk for lenders and investors.
• Market Fluctuations — Margin requirements can change based on market conditions and bond ratings

One can buy $1M worth of thirty year T bonds for $100,000 margin. The AI comment is incorrect. this margin does not mitigate risk, it increases it. The reson for the low margin is so the 28 primary govt bond dealers can afford the large amounts they buy from the govt during the bond auctions.

 

As of now, there are 24 primary dealers of U.S. government bonds. These institutions are authorized to bid on newly issued government securities and play a crucial role in the financial markets.

Overview of Primary Dealers

Primary dealers are essential to the U.S. government bond market.

S

• Definition — Primary dealers are the only entities allowed to bid on newly issued government securities.
• Role — They underwrite new government debt and act as market makers for the Federal Reserve.
• Auction Participation — Each dealer is expected to bid their pro-rata share of each auction, calculated based on the total amount auctioned.
• Current List — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York maintains a list of the current primary dealers.

 See there is a lot to learn here at the blog!

What are primary dealer requirments and what is their function? 

Karlie Kloss Brings Life Magazine back, $45 for Copy One

 Wed 10 28/2026

Fashion Model Turned Media Mogul Brings Life Back Quarterly 

Life was started in 1936 as a celebration of well, Life. It was photojournalism at its best , OK let's give National Geo a nod.

Will this work, no mention of what future issues will cost. The Nov 23 will have no ads but it does have two corporate sponsors so surely they get an ad or two. 

Maybe this will jump re start a few magazines

 

Here is an example of what I mean about Life