SOX Cratering

 10/21/2026

 

SOX dropped 6.725% today. We should be nearing a short term bottom for the tech group, note RSi and PMO are really low.

See our write up earlier today, energy service got shot in the head and energy fell as well.

XPH moved a bit but most of our other ETFs, well I will pass.

Coreweave CRWV  is one to watch with $51 B in debt.

 NVDA CEO is cheering them on as he has a stake in the firm, but really,can a startup hope to have the sales to retire this kind of debt? Note the last couple of lines in this description, it used to be a crypto company, the President make $3.5M a year, for selling debt I guess.

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CoreWeave, Inc. operates as a cloud infrastructure technology company in the United States. The company offers CoreWeave Cloud platform that comprises proprietary software and cloud services that deliver the automation and efficiency needed to manage complex artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure at scale. It also offers data and storage solutions, such as Local Object Transport Accelerator; infrastructure control solutions, including CoreWeave Kubernetes service; mission control services, including node, rack, and fleet lifecycle management; model and agent development tools comprising Weights & Biases, an AI developer platform; and runtime acceleration. In addition, the company offers graphics processing unit compute, CPU compute, networking services, managed services, and virtual and bare metal servers. Its services also include visual effects rendering, machine learning, pixel streaming, and batch processing. It has a collaboration with AdaniConneX to operate a data center in India. The company was formerly known as Atlantic Crypto Corporation and changed its name to CoreWeave, Inc. in December 2019. CoreWeave, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Livingston, New Jersey. 

Investores buy the Blue Chips

 10/22/2026

Thursday AM CST 10/22/2026

The Transportation Index leads the DOW Averages. It is up 241 points today thanks to 6% advances in CSX railroads and Ryder trucking.  The Industrials gave back some of yesterday’s gains. Yes, both indexes made higher highs earlier this year. The sell-off of so many stocks which are not tech wonders has the buy the dip crowd, well, buying.

The semi-conductor SOX index resumes its sell off down 5.67% today. The tech heavy NDX is off -2.39% as a result. Investors are leaving high tech and buying more traditional stocks. CSX and Ryder are good examples of just that.

Crude oil is up $1.43 to $98.58. However, that is not helping the energy ETF XLE. It dropped 1.86% today. Worse, the Energy Service XES got knocked down 6.65%. Yikes, my page of energy service stocks is all red, down, no exceptions. The leaders Halliburton HAL and Schlumberger SLB both down about 4%.

The ten-year Treasury note has dropped another notch to 5.01%, down 2.5% since yesterday. The trendline on the yield chart is a hair over 4.87%. That should make for a good near term target for the ten-year rate.

 Social Mood - politics 

i live in a Republican voting neighborhood but Talarico DEM signs are sprouting all around.  I have only seen one Paxton REP sign in the entire neighborhood. That is hardly a statistically significant survey. But sometimes anecdotal statistics can be accurate.

Dems promise to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth. This looks like a repeat of 1973 with Hegseth as Nixon. Back then the media was all negative on Nixon as they have been on Trump.  Hegseth is next.

Trump cut loose his new press secretary after five days. He cancelled his Greek ambassador appointed September 29, 2025.She lasted a few days past a year.  Will he hold on to Hegseth in the face of investigations and dig in?  Or let Hegseth go the way of the Greek ambassador, we’ll see.

This is not a political column.  But massive negative investigations will not bode well for the market. In 1973-4 the DOW dropped 50% in eighteen months.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

 

ETF Picks

 10/21/2026 Wed

 

A few days back I suggested that many stocks had sold off to the buy point, Here is an update

XLF financials looks good but will it outlasts a return to higher interest rates

XLB materials looks good

XPH Pharmaceuticals looks the best of the bunch as it is just now generating buy signal

 XLRE real estate, again will it outlast an increase in interest rates

HAL Halliburton Energy service looks good but  new says oil shipments are at pre war levels thru Hormuz, but industry observers doubt that, I do too, still a solid company with oil at $100

 DOW -a PAR SAR buy signal and above all three moving averages, RSI and PMO turning positive

Given the uncertainty of the mid-terms or maybe there is no uncertainty

the above chart speaks for itself, the market is buying the DOW 

 

Social Mood - politics 

i live in a Republican voting neighborhood but Talarico DEM signs are sprouting  and I have only seen one Paxton REP sign in the entire neighborhood

Dems promise to impeach Hegseth, this looks like a repeat of 1973with Hegseth as Nixon, back then the media was all negative on Nixon as they have been on Trump but Hedseth is next

Trump cut loose his new press secretary after five days and his Greek ambassador after what,  a year, so will he hold on to Hegseth in the face of investigations or dig in, we shall see

This is not a political blog but massive negative investigations will not bode well for the market, it did not in 1973.

 TLT long dated bonds has run into resistance but also gapped up a few days ago, a hold for now

More tomorrow 

  

 

Tuesday 10/20/2026

 10/20/2026

Amgen, Merck, and 3M were the big leaders that accounted for most of the DOW gain today.  

 An impressive move on the daily chart.  Not much to report on NDX and SPX.

Our recommendation for PSQ and SH does not look bad but I was surprised by DOW today. 

This is evidence of the roation out of AI stocks, 3M is certainly no AI.  

It looks like yields have further to drop.

 The trendline  is at 4.962, whcih sounds like a reasonable target.

 

Task Based C{A Exam Similation

 10/20/2026

Task-based simulations account for half of the CPA Exam score. You are invited to our free TBS Mastery Webinar to practice real simulations with expert guidance. Thursday, October 22, 3–4 p.m. CT In this live session, you will:

✅ Approach different TBS formats in AUD, FAR, and REG  ✅ Work through real simulations step by step  ✅ Ask questions during a live Q&A  ✅ Manage your time under exam pressure

This webinar is free and open to everyone, whether you are just starting your CPA Exam journey or already deep into review.

SAVE MY SPOT

 

Stock Indexes Stretched

 10/19/2026

It is advisable to enter a ladder of orders in PSQ bear NASD and SH bear SPX

By that I mean buy orders progressively lower say  5% apart. 

TLT is completing a counter trend rally, I think it has a bit more left but again time to place a ladder of buy orders in TBF expecting higher yields.

 Silver is probably lower.

 Real Clear Politics has six Senate race trending Democrat. That suggests Dems will take the House, and now the Senate. WSJ reports Trump aids are hiring lawyers for defense. Expect a repolay politically of 1973-74 Watergate with the Dems savaging Trump as they did Nixon.  The markets are likely to fall with all that negative mood. 

More tomorrow. 

 

A Next Door Post

 Monday 10/19/2026

I’m flabbergasted. I just went over my food stamps amount at an HEB register and the gentleman behind me in line offered to pay the difference instead of my putting some items back. It was over $25!

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