New High for DOW

 6/29/2026

Cisco CAT Google  and Amazon pushed the DOW higher today. Tech rules once again.  Honeywell dropped 6% as it spun off its HONA aerospace division.

August crude oil jumped 1.52 to close over 70 at 70.75. Chevron dropped another 2.59, the bottom is not in yet. Scan any headlines and Iran is dragging all this along as usual.  One day does not change a trend but let's keep an eye out.  

 

I undergo a significant medical procedure tomorrow so it may be a day or two before another update.  

Major market Update

 Weekend 6/27/2026

SPX Hourly

 This may be a wave one down ,two up and three underway if so the wave one low at 7275 needs to fall. 

NDX is the same picture but the important juncture for the markets./

 28,400 needs to go in this  case.  If SPX and NDX both take out Wave 1 lows a top looks more possible. 

The guys who run the DOW components are always trying to goose the average with the latest hot stock. In this case they take out Verizon June 29 and add Alphabet, ie Google. that makes five of the Mag 7 in the DOW average. As always looks like they are late to the party. Here is the Churchill MAG 7  ETF. If anything more Mag 7 will pull the DOW lower. 

 Silver looks headed to 50. RSI probably needs to go below 30.  50 as a targe makes sense, that was the high in the 1981 blow off. See Hunt Brothers Silver Corner. the Hunts amassed a huge silver futueres position. Instead of the usual closing out the cotracts routine, they asked for physical deliver, there was not that much silver in the COMEX warehouse. The Exchange was not amused. The Hunts eventually took bankruptcy. 

 

Social Mood

Six British PMs in less thana decade 

Back in the USSR 

Trump's worst poll yet

 

Let's Check on Energy

 6/27/2026

While everyone is agog at tech, let's check the out of favor sector, energy. Yes oil soared and has dropped back below 70, as I have said the last week, it is hard to see why, see Trump threatens to attack Iran again, etc.  Spencer Jakab WSJ Herd on the Street, has been suggesting this sector  looks good all arond. 

XOM CVX BP SHEL all look the same, trying to make a bottom the last couple few days recording agaps down on the open a possible sign of exhaustion selling.  APA is smaller but also a good candidate. XOM at two months to better show the selling gaps

refiners are councing, VLO is expensive, how about DINO instead?  Understand refiners care not if oil is high or low, they make money on the spread between the cost of oil and the wholesale price of the refined product.

 

PMO has not turned up on either so not time to buy yet.

Energy service gets hammered in an oil sell off, but the chart looks like the major oils.

Halliburton HAL it could wander down to the red 200 day MA

Market update in next post

 

Oil Price Drops, Why?

 6/26/2026

Oil Drops, Why?

"A few hours ago, without prior notice or coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, certain authorities announced a new route for vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz," it said. It warned that "any violating vessels will be dealt with accordingly," without elaborating.

Iran struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, forcing a pause on evacuations of stranded seafarers and demonstrating its continued ability to restrict the critical waterway, despite the agreement reached last week with the United States.

A US official told CNN the vessel was attacked by an Iranian drone, but did not provide further details.

Yahoo News

This Friday morning West Texas Intermediate is trading at $68.68, down about $3 from yesterday. I began with the latest from Hormuz. It is hard to understand the continuing drop in the price of oil when Iran is literally attacking ships attempting to transit the Strait.

The administration has trotted out VP Vance to assure us that he has negotiated a great deal. Iran will get money, not from us, to cover their damages. And they do not get the money unless they ‘behave.’  I suspect Iran will spend the money as always and go right back to terrorist business as usual.

President Trump is angry that retail gasoline prices have not immediately declined. He seems to forget refiners must work through the $85+ oil accumulated during the fighting. Only then will they get to replace with now lower priced oil

Much has been written about the new FED Chair Kevin Marsh. Not much has been written about the actual bond market. Since early March the two-year Treasury note yield has climbed from 3.40 to 4.14%. This is a 22% increase in four months.  One inflation measure tops4%. It wil be difficult to convince a majority of governors a rate decrease is necessary.

A famous Wall Street adage is ‘after May go away.’  That describes where we are now.  The DOW briefly jumped above 52,50 yesterday only to quickly return to 52,000. The markets have been wild for semi-conductor chip makers of all kinds. The SOX index of those firms has soared since April from 8,00 to 13,300.  All the Magnificent Seven stocks are down in June.

Meanwhile back in the real world, here are two stocks to watch. Amazon is erasing its April to May rise. It has fallen from 280 to 232. Wal Mart has done that and more, gapping down in May. The fall is from 134 to 117. Both firms are reflective of the basic retail economy and both make scads of money. Why the decline?  Is the market seeing some buying weakness ahead?

 

What's with AMZN and WMT?

 6/25/2026

 AMZN down 3.16% today

WMT down 3.26% today

What gives?

Two stocks Micron MU up 15.74% and Applied Materials AMAT up13.44%

rallied all things tech NDX and SOX

The DOW dropped 798 points high to low today, closing yo 71 from yesterday

so a couple of stocks can move an entire average once again as I have noted many times.

No follow thru on the DOW

I have no opinion on the next six months of the market
 

A few days  ago I showed thousands of demonstrators opposing .trump's son in law's planned resort on the country's only island, negative mood.

Well, now Trump has it out with Republican Senators 

Dem Socialists oust Traditional Dems 

Negative mood is building 

Is the Tech Mania Rolling Over?

 6/24/2026

 NDX has entered a down phase. Wave one down, two up and now the tap yesterday has satarted three down. A third wave is the strongest pattern of the developing five. Tech lead on the way up and leads on the way down.  

Silver

 

 silver has now retraced 50% of its rise, the decline is not over yet.  50-55 area looks like support. Parabolic rises are nearly always reversed in this fashion.

Is the Love Affair With Tech On or Off?

 6/23/2026

Above every major index closed down today.  DOW was positive earlier but sold off this afternoon.
 

 I commented this seemed an odd chart pattern.  Notice the gap down June 6, up June 16,and then down today. Buyers are chasing news not sure of whether to be short of long the tech securities. Either way it is lop sided with not enough on the other side of the trade to do anything but gap up or down. 

The same is true for the semi-conductor trade in SOX. It looks a low like the NDX graph because both contain many of the same securities. 

NDX 6 Months - momentum is waning

 As usual the media is long on talk and short on the details of the SpaceX bond offering. I read it is investment grade, how can that be the firm has no income or that it is senior unsecured debt due 2056. So will wait to attempt to find details. 

WMT finally jumped 2% but still has that large gap overhead. 

Vance and Company are allowing Iran to sell oil so oil price is a smidge lower. Now Hegseth wants $80 B to recover what they blew up, literally, in Iran. How are we really much better off?  Now Iran talks of insurance and fees to pass Hormuz. Follow on https://understandingwar.org/.