Oil Sopikes

 4/3/2026

Energy Prices Spike

 

The cost of U.S. crude oil continued pushing higher to more than $111 per barrel, up nearly 12% since Wednesday, its biggest one-day price jump in six years. For the year, it's now up 94%.

NBC News April 2, 2026

Today, Friday Apri 3, 2026, May West Texas Crude is $112.06, up   $11.94 since Thursday.  Trump’s speech Wednesday night offered continued fighting while Iran denies the existence of any talks. Distant oil futures  continue to take the short -erm volatility in stride. November 2026 WTIC is trading for $73.24, up a mere 86 cents from Thursday.

One might think the administration would want to exhibit a steady as she goes appearance in the midst of ‘the military action.’ That is not the case. Defense Secretary Hegseth has fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, General David Hodne, and Major General William Green Jr.  green was head of the Arm’s Chaplain Corps. Apparently there is no safety for ministers either.

The DOW fell over 600 points following Trump’s talk and then recovered most of the loss. Today markets are little changed.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 178,000 jobs added in March. That is better than the 133,000 jobs reported lost in February.  Most of the job gains were in health care.

The Dow remains 4,000 points below its February 10 high. The SPX and NDX are also below all-time highs.

While the Military Action and the Artemis space shot dominate the news, elsewhere there are problems GM sales fell 9.7% in the first quarter, the most in four years. Higher interest rates and gasoline prices seem to have buyers sidelined. Exxon Mobil’s touted biofuel algae program is not delivering the promised results.

The latest sure-fire idea for your portfolio is also having difficulties. Private Equity, funds invested in non-public enterprises, was touted as the next big thing. But seems investors are having trouble redeeming as much as they would like. Such funds are illiquid and cannot be returned on demand.  In the last year Blue Owl has dropped from $20 to $8.57.

Mortgage rates have risen to 6.46%, impacting home sales.  The Ten -Year Treasury Note yields 4.3%. Our prediction is that it will rise above the previous high of 5.03%

Elon Musk Space X plans a fall IPO on his birthday.  The plan is to raise more than $75 billion. This may result is a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion. That would surely set a record for IPOs.  New market highs spawn ambitious projects. This will be one to watch, a stellar valuation indeed.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

Value Line Geometric ,Equal Weight, Makes a Stand

 4/2/2026

 I drew in the blue neckline months ago, and the XVG is making a stand right here. 

And adding to the confusion, WMT is doing the same, do we need to go long? Maybe

WMT is a proxy stock for the entire market and it looks like a screaming buy,  readers I am not married to one idea.

 

 I added the 50 day MA, notice it tested and rebounded right there, See PMO bottoming in lower panel. 

If this were easy we would not need a day job... 

 

Gleim Review Mterial forTAMUSA Students

 4/2/2026

Hello Dennis,

Thank you for your response.

We would be happy to offer 50 free questions from our FAR Exam Question and Explanation Bank as an assessment. You may select the questions yourself, or our content team can choose them for you. For any students who complete the assessment, we will provide free access to our FMAA Review Course: https://www.gleim.com/fmaa-review/test-bank-questions/. This is a $199 retail value. The FMAA curriculum covers foundational accounting topics and helps students work toward an accounting certification that they can put on their resumes now.

Additionally, I can create a Professor-Led class for both the EQE FAR assessment and the FMAA review course, giving you the ability to view student grades.

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Vanessa Neely
Assistant Sales Manager
800-874-5346 ext. 422

 

A Perfect Socio Moment - See last night blog comment

 4/2/2026

 

Oil surges and US stock futures fall after Trump offers no clear timeline to end war in Iran

Jake Conley, Breaking Business News Reporter

Updated Thu, April 2, 2026 at 6:22 AM CDT

2 min read

Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our storie\\

 

Trump talks at top of counter trend wave two withj predictable results 

 

I suggested last night that it would be a prefect sociomonic moment if the markets fell, stocks or rose, oil, after his remarks. This speech should have preceeded the Iran attacks not come trying to salvage some support from the American public and the EU.

 

Now switch to page B 12 of today's WSJ for more on the socio moment.

 

Stock Market Rally Enters Day Two

 

No one on Wall St wants to be on the wrong side ofa  post war rally.

Stock market climed in advance of Trump speech (how did teh two authors know that?) up 10.2% up .7% blah blah..faith in economic resilience and hedging (show me an average investor ho is hedging)  and of course, traders don't want to miss out, FOMO, reading hte tea leaves, the war won't pumel the bull case, oil prices slipped Wdnesday  (but not Thursday) widely divergent scenarios, investors scrambling to protect themselves

 

Okay that was edited but you get therift, the authors are clueless as to what is going on, grasping to link market action with some physical event

 

Readers of this blog will not be scrambling as we have a method called the Elliott Wave. this alerted us to a short term trend change Friday and an impending short term top which happened even faster than i imagined. 

 

The larger Wave 3 down has begun, see my list of bear funds yesterday and start buying.

Well the hourly chart has already bounced back giving a better bear buy, let's see what happens this afternoon.

 

 

dennis.elam@att.net 

 

 

 

Counter Trend Rally nears End

 4/1/026

the large panel is a textbok example of a five wave decline and then an A B C Wave 2 rebound. The rebound has been strong, typical of bear markets

 

PSQ short the NDX 100 or QQ has retraced a FIB 38% of its rally.  Wave three up for bear fnds and Wave three down for major market indexes should begin soon.  From a social mood standpoint, Trump's speech tonight might be a perfect kick-off to a third wave down in the markets, the exact opposite of what he hopes for.  despite all the targeting, Iran still controls the Strait. And he failed to get Allies or the American pubic on board. Now Allies balk and the public is angry at Mr.  I will lower gasoline prices and stay out of foreign wars. 

Here are the bear funds, I will recommend a strong position on a reversal in these markets

Bear Funds

Symbol            Name

HDGE            Hedge

PSQ              short NDX

DWSH          Dwight                Short NASD

RWM            Short Russell 2000

Bond prices have yet to really crack, let' see if the next move gets things going

Silver is too erratic to invest. 

Wal Mart WMT is a bell weather stock to watch, it has been spectacular the last year, weakness will be further bear confirmation. 

 

 

The Wal Mart Recession Indicator

 4/1/2026

Forget the Jobs Report, Look to the WMT INdicator 

This indicator is a ration of WMT stock versus a basket of luxury goods makers. When a recession looms, WMT outpaces luxury, as it is doing now.

In 1929 San Antonio cheered its first sky scraper and Texas Largest Movie Theater, the Majestic. The tower Life building was to be the start of  larger complex of office, retail, and aparments, all downtown. The ensuing downturn cancelled all of it. Now SA is booming with downtown projects again including a  $160 M Double A baseball park and you name it, UTSA expansion, apartments, here we go again? 

Quotes From TeddyRoosevelt

 3/30/2026

 

“Knowing what's right doesn't mean much unless you do what's right.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “Character, in the long run, is the decisive factor in the life of an individual and of nations alike.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

“Nothing worth having comes easy.”
― Theodore Roosevelt

 

 “Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.” 

 

 “Nothing in the world is worth having or worth doing unless it means effort, pain, difficulty… I have never in my life envied a human being who led an easy life. I have envied a great many people who led difficult lives and led them well.”

 

 

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “Never throughout history has a man who lived a life of ease left a name worth remembering.”
― Theodore Roosevelt