Oracle Update

 10/3/2026

While Oracle owner Larry Ellison is flipping big dollar real estate, we show you a longer term Head and Shoulders formation in his stock ORCL.

 In a recent Heard on the Street column, Spencer Jakob said to watch ORCL among the hyperscaleers. It is the most indebted of the bunch. Here is the classic head and shoulders set up for the stock.  weekly drop under that neckline at 120 will be a negative warning. 

Tech Leads, All Others, Good Luck

 Weekend 10/3/2026

James Macintosh WSJ Weekend

 

In stocks, the headline indexes appeared remarkably resilient in the face of a 10-year Treasury yield jumping from 4.7% to 5.3%, with the S&P 500 down only slightly and the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 gaining 3%.

But under the surface, September’s stock-price moves show how narrow the market has become. Almost 80% of stocks in the S&P were down, the average stock was off 5% and only two out of 11 sectors were up, led by tech. The other gainer, communications services, was up only because tech giants Meta and Alphabet, not classified as tech stocks, outweighed losses for almost all the media and telecoms companies in the sector.

Smaller stocks fared even worse, hitting hopes that they were on a firmer path after gains earlier in the year. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 5% in the month, while the top 50 stocks rose 2%. The same pattern shows up within the S&P 500: 41 of the largest 100 stocks rose, while only 10 of the smallest 100 constituents eked out a gain. 

The common, if not exclusive, factor among the risers: AI and data-center supply-chain exposure.

 Low rated borrowers  are paying more borrowing costs, and in a hurry. How long will the overall market hold while costs soar for eeryone else.

 

______________________

 

I reprinted this as  mhy Walmart example, it is down 22% while the NDX makes a new high. Like the Dotcoms in March 2000, once the market tires of AI, expect a swift reversal, until then all one can do is monitor AI SOX Mag7. 

wyoming Book Keeper Steals $1.5 M

 Friday 10/2/2026

BookKeeper steals $1.5M over several years 

She moves to Hawaii and wants to work electronically but comes back to Wyoming once a month'

Gee what is wrong with this picture

I wonder if there is a nice house in Hawaii that could be seized and recovered? 

A Long Term Look at Interest Rates

 Friday 10/2/2026

f the Federal Reserve Board is So Smart, I’d Hate to See What Dumb Looks Like!   The United States just crossed a pretty remarkable financial threshold.   The federal government is now spending about $1.25 trillion a year just to pay interest on the $40 trillion national debt.   There are of course the usual suspects: profligate spending, bureaucracy, lack of accountability, waste.   How did we get here?   For years, the U.S. government borrowed money at historically low interest rates, a real gravy train. And in 2020, the Fed’s expectation was that those rates would stay low for years.   Take a look at this chart:

GRAPHIC LINK: http://affiliatesq.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-2.png

Interest rates rose from 1942 to 1981. Then they spent roughly 40 years trending lower, reaching historic lows by 2020.   At the time, there was little reason to believe — at least according to the conventional view — that things were about to change. In September 2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters that the Fed expected short-term interest rates to remain near zero for at least three years, through the end of 2023.   It made sense to almost everyone. The economy was still dealing with the effects of the pandemic, inflation was subdued, and the Federal Reserve was providing extraordinary monetary stimulus.   Besides, who would ever doubt the Fed chairman?   Analysts at Elliott Wave International saw things very differently. And they put it in print for the world to see.   On September 23, 2020, The Elliott Wave Theorist addressed the Fed's outlook directly:   “On September 16, Fed Chairman Powell…told reporters that he expected short term interest rates to stay near zero…through ‘the end of 2023.’ …there is not a chance in the world of that scenario playing out. The probability is high that interest rates have begun a process of rising….”   That's a stark difference.   The Fed was telling investors to continue to expect near-zero rates for years. EWI was saying that the gravy train was OVER. Rates had bottomed.   And then look at what happened:

GRAPHIC LINK: http://affiliatesq.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-3.png

Rates rose across all time frames. Some, like 10-year yields, went up tenfold. T-bill rates that had been hovering near zero ultimately surged above 5%, rising 100-fold!   The four-decade era of generally falling interest rates had given way to something very different – with enormous consequences for investors and for debtors, including the federal government.   Individuals, businesses and governments who had built their future plans around the Fed’s completely incorrect assumptions and prognostications were caught in a nightmare scenario.   Fast Forward to Today   This chart shows a close-up view of the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note since 2020.

GRAPHIC LINK: http://affiliatesq.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image.png

Today, as older government debt matures, some of it has to be replaced with new debt carrying substantially higher interest rates, contributing to the enormous $1.25 trillion annual interest bill.   And the effects of higher rates aren't limited to Washington -- mortgages, home-equity loans, commercial real estate and longer-duration car loans are all feeling the pressure as the effects spread throughout the financial system – and NOT just in the U.S.   This Isn't Just Happening in America   While investors spend a lot of time wondering what the Fed will do next, long-term interest rates have been moving in some important ways around the world.   In Japan, for example, the 10-year government bond yield recently reached its highest level in 30 years.

GRAPHIC LINK: http://affiliatesq.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-4.png

Government bond yields in several other major economies have also been moving higher.

GRAPHIC LINK: http://affiliatesq.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-1.png

Remember how all this started. In 2020, economists agreed that ultra-low interest rates would stick around for years. EWI said the process of rising interest rates had already begun. Six years later, the U.S. is spending $1.25 trillion a year on interest. And a string of recent 30-year Treasury auctions has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a quarter-century.   Get more insights like this when you sign up for EWI's free newsletter >>

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Gond Raets and DIesel Soar

 10/2/2026

Bond Yields and Diesel Soar

 

Depending on the source, diesel fuel prices have risen 70-125% since the start of the Iran war.

Prior to the Iran War, the Mid-East exported about 19% of the world diesel fuel. North America was next with a 15% share and Russia traied with 11%. Due to the contraction of Hormuz Strait traffic, diesel shipments from the Mid-East have been cut 75%. Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries have cut those diesel exports 80%.

US refineries have upped their output but simply cannot make up that much of a shortfall. The result is a record diesel price of $6.40.

A liter of diesel weighs more than the equivalent size of gasoline. The reason is that diesel fuel is more dense in terms of the energy it contains. This is why diesel Power is the choice for large trucks, off road machines, and ships.

Refiners produce about 102 gallons of diesel and 20 gallons of gasoline from every 42-gallon barrel of crude oil.

Trump is considering a ban on diesel exports. The idea is that having more diesel in the US as exports fall, would lower the price of diesel, more supply, lower prices. But it is not that simple. If refiners make more diesel than is demanded, it will have to be stored. If storage space runs out, where does one temporarily store auto and jet fuel?

Did Trump ask China to increase its diesel exports?  WE cannot know.  The Navy is having success opening Hormuz. The sanctions are weighing on Iran as its inflation soars. But for now, diesel remains expensive. And that expense will be carried into the price of goods delivered to stores by diesel trucks.

This past week the national media discovered the topic discussed here for months. The ten-year Treasury Note finally soared over 5%. It apparently peaked Thursday at 5.29%.  Those increases sent 30-year mortgage rates past 7%, slowing home sales. This column recommended buying TBF, a fund that increases as bond rates rise as well. On my www.professorelam.blogspotblog,  we recommended selling TBF and scaling in TLT Wednesday. That proved to be a good recommendation. TLT is a fund of long dated bonds. It is up 50 cents since Thursday.  Interest rates, especially on the long end like TLT, should ease for some weeks ahead.

Stock indexes rose today. The DOW gained 250 points but remains in a down trend.  The tech-heavy NDX registered a new high at 30,807. The markets are still buying AI related issues. The Magnificent 7 ETF MAGS hit another high just today at 72.58. Our expectation of an over bought stock market has yet to bear fruit.  Walmart however trends lower. Down 22% from its May high, it enters bear territory. When will the larger market care?

 

 

Transsiberian - Highly REcommended Amzn Prim

 10/1/2026

Made abroad the story of couple who encounter an unusual couple while traversing the Transsiberain RR

Actual shots of moving the rail cars from one gauge undercarriage to another, different gauge tracks from one country to another. But great cast, great suspense, brace for the take your shoes off scene

 

Bonds Making a Bottom?

 120/1/2026

Yesterday I said bonds were near or making a bottom. Today we got a first confirmation of that. 

 This is an hourly chart. The purple line is TBF, bear, the black OHLC are TLT a fund of 20 year bonds. 

RSI at top came off its low, PMO at bottom turned up.TLT hit 763.76 as the low for the day and rebounded to yesterday's accidental entry by yours truly at 77.71. I had two orders at  77.31 bit TLT never got there. Should have placed an order a bout a buck lower say 76.81  but that is difficult to judge and this is apparently the end of the downmove in TLT. 

I am going to add some call opotion, sellsome oputs, and add more TLT. 

Nothing to report really in stocks, not much action slightly up.

Oil double bottomed at 89 and rose 2.72 today despite Petraeus assurance in the WSJ more oil is getting gthru Hormuz. Time to buy some APA, write calls or hold for a bit we'll see.