9/4/2026
Déjà
vu, It’s 1973 All Over Again
Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is
unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere
Hegseth Extends Mideast Deployments
Into 2027, Escalating Strain on Troops.
Richard Nixon had been re-elected
in 1972 to the chagrin of the press. Nixon and the press despised one another.
Ditto for Trump today.
Then Nixon had promised to
solve/end the Viet Nam war. Trump made the same promise for Ukraine. Now we have
Ukraine and Iran.
Oil prices soared with the first
Arab embargo in October 1973. Fifty-three years later, oil prices are again
rising, now at $90 here, $Brent is $96.
Interest rates were rising then. Nixon
took the US off the gold standard in August, 1971. Federal expenditures would
soon explode, backed by fiat money. Today we have a $40 trillion national debt.
Stories of bond vigilantes are all
over the news. A bond vigilante is one raising interest rates on existing
bonds. The message is that the market will demand higher interest rates as
expenditures balloon world-wide.
The stock market had notched
another high over Dow 1,000 by 1973. This tied the high of 1966. Today the DOW has
made new highs around 54,000. Again, a tech boom, this time in semi-conductor
chips and the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, has accounted for the rise. That segment
of the market however represents only a handful of stocks.
Despite all the talk of Nvidia, the
SOX index of semi-conductors topped at 14,000 in June. It now trades around
11,000.
The Transportation Index topped in
April at 24,500. It now trades under its 50-day moving average at 20,861.
Higher oil prices knocked every Transportation issue lower this week. Transports
are not confirming the highs in the Industrial index.
The price of West Texas
Intermediate crude oil is trading above its 50 and 200 cay moving average. The previous high was March 11 around $120.
Price has now broken above the downtrend line from that high. This suggests the
oil market will make another run at that previous high. In fact, I expect it to
do so. With an expected Democrat takeover of the House, things will only more
difficult for Team Trump.
Mark Twain observed that history
does not always repeat but it sure does rhyme. The parallels of now and 53
years ago are too strong to ignore. Markets now enter the seasonally weak fall
period.
Be careful out there. From January 1973 to December 1974 the DOW
lost about half its value. The low of December 1974 was 577.
Professorelam.blogspot.com
✔️Real client work.
✔️Dedicated mentors.
✔️Professional growth.
✔️Lifelong connections.
Our interns don’t just learn about public accounting – they gain hands-on experience, expand their networks, and develop the skills needed for long-term success.
Fun fact: many of our professionals started their Whitley Penn journey as interns!
We’re now recruiting for Spring 2027 and Spring 2028 internship opportunities.
🔗 Explore open positions and apply today: https://hubs.li/Q04vJp5v0