The charts of the major oils, XOM CVX BP SHEL all look about the same. Here XOM has corrected in an A B C fashion to the down side. Note price is just above the 200 day MA, a natural support level.
Attempts to analyze the various major indexes are difficult. And it is summer when the markets tend to waffle and wander.
My suggestion is to buy some of the major energy stocks and write call options against them. Crude oil has fallen to reasonable support, some shipping is thru Hormuz. This seems a better strategy than trying to analyze the indexes which will not die.
The debt grew from 1981 to March 2020, the end of the 39 year down cycle in interest rates. So as debt grew it 'seemed' manage able as it id not take that much of the overall budget, ie, interest rates to re finance the debt kept falling.
Not now, After hitting about .5% for the ten year note in 2020, we are now around 4.5%. the interest on the debt is more than the defense budget. And no we do not owe it to ourselves, China and other foreign countries own a lot of it.
Okay as long as the buck is the world reserve currency. But the Chinese have other ideas, like the Infrastructure Investment Bank.
China would love ot substitute the yuan for the US Dollar. And if that were to happen, bets are off.
The NDX made its high in early June. Since then we have lower highs, now we need lower lows.Taking out the June 10 low would be more convincing of a high.
Notice SPX looks similar to NDX above, lower highs ut again it needs to take out that June low. NOte 2 hour chart.
SOX semi conductor
Not exactly but similar with lower highs. Again needs to takeout June low.
Okay DOW, not shown, guys happy now? Now five of the Mag 7 stocks are in the 30 DOW and it makes new highs, surprise though the Thursday rally was broad based.
I have had students report on the smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 a few semesters ago. After the Liberation Day stock market fiasco of lat April, things seemed to settle down, until now.
My students, graduate level Business College , an A & M system school, had never heard of it. They were amazed at its damage. Well Trump, since he did not write it, disliked the former NAFTA deal and wrote the USMCA US Mexico Canada trade agreement. I never read what actually changed, did you? Could this be the out of left field event which upends the ever bunny stock rally?
Nowhere we go again, trying to zero our balance of trade with Canada and Mexico, why. If Mexico makes Ford pickups as well and cheaper than we can, why not buy them? that is roughly a Milton Friedman quote. But Trump has bought in to the trade deficit folly as follows today. from Yahoo Finance
Let's see Save America bill - no go
Memorandum with Iran - no go
Greenland - nope
Canada 51st State - nah uh
so let's get back to Liberation Day
________________
Today was the deadline
for long-term renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(USMCA), the trade pact President Trump negotiated in his first term
with the US's two top trading partners.
This time around, his administration says it will not renew the pact in its current form before more talks.
Representatives
from all three countries meet virtually on Wednesday, with the US
holding out and announcing plans to keep negotiating rather than re-up
the agreement for another 16 years.
"The
United States will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address
the Agreement's shortcomings and our trade deficits with these
countries," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.
"The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form.
As a result, the USMCA is not renewed."
In
a call with reporters on Wednesday, a senior administration official
downplayed the overall importance of the agreement, saying, "We have
already seen the USMCA to some degree subordinated" by the president's
other tariff actions.
The USMCA sets tariffs to zero on millions of goods traded among the three
nations. The missed renewal deadline has been widely expected for days.
"I'm not looking for my pen," Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney quipped to reporters on Tuesday. Mexico had called for the pact to be renewed, but the US had been pushing for more talks.
Trump has meanwhile taken to disparaging the agreement that took effect during his first term.
"I'm not a big fan of it," the president said last month. "I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it. … We'll see what happens."
The
senior administration official said Trump's "primary" concern is
America's trade deficits. But the negotiations could touch a range of
sectors, such as automobiles, where both Canada and Mexico, as well as
car companies, are pushing for lower duties, plus areas like aerospace
and food products, where the US is a net exporter.
Greer
has announced another round of talks with Mexico this month in Mexico
City. That came after a June 15-17 meeting in Washington, D.C., which
ended with a noncommittal joint statement from the US and Mexican teams
that they had "advanced discussions."
The next steps with Canada are unclear, with no direct talks currently scheduled.
________________________
Amid the tech mania I have wondered what wrench might be thrown to upend the party. Here is Liberation Day last April, a quick 9,00 point drop.
Trade nutcase Peter Navarro, whose Federal experience includes jail time served, JamiesonGreer US Trade Rep, Greer has been described as an "architect" of Trump's tariff policy by the New York Times, and Trump, the only good idea is my idea, now has the Canadian PM 'not looking for a pen.' While predicting politics is not possible, we could see a repeat of last April. With his Save America ill going nowhere perhaps Trump is looking to flex muscle elswhere, hmm that Memorandum of Understanding with Iran does not seem to be helping and we only see VP Vnce defending it. even Trump warned it would be Vance's deal if it failed, note Sec State Rubio is no where around it.
We'll see. I still have my very modest short stock position.
Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?" is one of the best-known American songs of the Great Depression. Written by lyricist Yip Harburg and composer Jay Gorney, it was part of the 1932 musicalrevueAmericana;
the melody is based on a Russian-Jewish lullaby. The song tells the
story of the universal everyman, whose honest work towards achieving the
American dream
has been foiled by the economic collapse. Unusual for a Broadway song,
it was composed largely in a minor key. The song became best known
through recordings by Bing Crosby and Rudy Vallée
that were released in late 1932. The song received positive reviews and
was one of the most popular songs of 1932. As one of the few popular
songs during the era to discuss the darker aspects of the collapse, it
came to be viewed as an anthem of the Great Depression.
Dow Depression low was July 8, 1932 at 41.22.
The timing of the song and the lyrics, the unusual reality of the Depression for the average man, nothing average then or now about Broadway, and in a minor key, make this the perfect soconomic song for the Depression low of the Dow. In fact that was the low for the entire 1900s, previous December 1896 at 40.98,
The cause of the Depression was the drop from 391 in September 1929 to that low three years later, the Dow dropped 232 in November 1929, rallied to 239 by May 1930 and it was all downhill fro there. Then commercial banks would loan 90% of the purchase stock price with only 10% cash margin required. An 11% drop from the purchase price wiped out the stock collateral, if the buyer was unable to post margin the stock was sold by after May 1930 the bounce back high from the November low, probably a at lower price still. But the crash to 239 wiped out lots of margin accounts. With no FDIC bank insurance 30% of the banks closed wiping out that much of the money supply.
Margin debt has risen 54% to that $1.4 trillion, yes with a T, in just the last year. Oh and the Glass Stegall Act of 1933. talk about too late now, keeping commercial banks out of that business was repealed in 1999, less than a year before the Dot com top in March 200. The repeal sponsor, Phil Gramm , former Tx A & M Economics Professor and now occasional WSJ contributor, thanks Phil!
Exchange traded Funds ETFs can be leveraged, thy can borrow 2x or even 3x to double the bet on usually an industry, up or down. Now one can buy 0DTE zero day to expiration option yes theyexpire today. One can buy future on leveraged ETFs, all future are massively leverage, and even options on ETFs. Leverage is then ealisy500% or more in the ETF , related futures and options of 5x what it was in 1929. Yet who is bearish or even warning of impending danger?
See the WSJ Monday front page article. Direxion 3x ull Semi ETF rose 700% from late March to early June, fun on the way up. Okay math students at 50% margin for later buyers when would a margin call kick in, once the ETF dropped well before a 50% loss, hmm do you think the buyer could pst cash margie without selling the fund?
________________
Wed Update
The DOW gave up a 400point rally but closed down -13.96 day's end with all but Transports closing lower.
NDX
The end of June low was 28,890, then 28,600. we need lower closes than that to think about a top.
MU rallied from 400 to 1250 from April to late June dropping 10.57$ today. This is Oct 1929, March 2000, fall 2007 mania.
Silver is rallying from its over sold at 55.62, closing lower will renew the down trend.
No real news on bond yields, Marsh citing the FED 2% inflation rate is nowhere in sight. how long till Donald turns on him?
Managing multiple entities can make financial reporting feel overwhelming. A 2024 report notes that 78% of auditors
view intercompany accounts as a high-risk area, with manual processes,
complex structures, timing differences, and currency conversion ranked
among the top causes of financial statement inaccuracies or delays.
Without clear rules, it’s easy for numbers to become inconsistent,
stakeholders to lose confidence, and compliance risks to escalate.
That’s why U.S. GAAP consolidation rules
are so important. They provide a structured way to combine your parent
company and subsidiaries into one unified set of financial statements,
giving investors and regulators a true picture of your business’s
overall performance.
For U.S. companies with international
operations or offshore entities, understanding these rules is essential.
It’s not just about compliance; it’s about presenting financials that
are accurate, transparent, and ready for scrutiny.
In this guide,
we’ll walk through the key principles, models, and challenges of GAAP
consolidation, and explain how applying them correctly supports stronger
financial reporting.
It turned into a Wall Street punchline, but big banks aren’t laughing.
After JPMorganJPM -0.63%decrease; down pointing triangle
fired a wealth manager for expensing a $642.50 Super Bowl platter, the
employee claimed he was wrongfully terminated, saying he had intended
the spread of deli meats and cookies for clients who didn’t show up. In
May, the employee won $4.25 million in the case that became known as the “salami incident.”
Now, big banks have had enough of these sorts of claims and want to make sure they are never again vulnerable to them.
JPMorgan filed a motion late Monday in a California federal court to vacate the award to its former wealth adviser, Brent Ryan Bodner, over the deli meats gone awry. The award, the bank argued, was “lawless” and misrepresented the reason for his firing.
Another apparent target of JPMorgan’s filing: the watchdog group that awarded him the sum.
The
bank said Bodner took advantage of the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority’s rules to engineer a high payout. Finra, the industry’s
self-policing group, adjudicates disputes among advisers, brokers,
investors and institutions.
“FINRA
exists to promote trust and confidence in the securities industry,” the
bank wrote in its filing. But the bank said arbitrators punished it for
“truthfully advising the investing community about Bodner’s misconduct,
while rewarding a wrongdoer whose claims would fail as a matter of law
in any other forum.”
The
bank’s dig at Finra reflects a broader push on Wall Street to rein in
the organization, whose arbitration panels rule on everything including
defamation claims, whether investments were too risky for a client or if
a broker is a “Wolf of Wall Street” type who needs to be punished.
In
March, Finra asked the public to weigh in on a host of questions tied
to its rules for deciding arbitration cases. Suggestions from banks and
other financial firms poured in.
Brent Bodner was awarded $4.25 million after being terminated over a disputed Super Bowl spread.Marc Seldin Rosen
“I can’t recall the last time there was either a rule proposal or a request for comment that covered so much,” said William A. Jacobson,
a law professor and director of the Cornell Securities Law Clinic. “It
would be odd to me if a couple of large awards could cause Finra to want
to look at the whole system and propose systemic changes.”
Investor advocates and lawyers for advisers and brokers say it could end up handing even more power to Wall Street.
Already, Finra had a reputation for having a lighter touch than federal regulators.
According
to its own data, institutions win or settle the vast majority of cases
brought to a Finra arbitration. Only 3% of all cases since 1989 have
resulted in punitive awards, which are reserved for certain cases with
“serious misconduct.”
Wall Street has nevertheless been galvanized by recent mega awards that were even bigger than the salami win.
There was a $133 million judgment against Stifel Financial and a $92 million award against UBS.
The cases were brought by investors who claimed they weren’t properly
told about risks, and the awards were upheld in court on appeal.
Any
potential cap on damages or other changes to Finra rules would need to
be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Among those that submitted letters calling for change are Charles Schwab, LPL Financial, and Sullivan & Cromwell, the law firm representing banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
The
industry wish list would broadly curb how much an arbitrator could levy
in punitive damages, if at all, and allow cases involving large or
complex investments to be routed to other arbitration forums, which are
typically more expensive.
“They want to protect themselves,” said Jenice Malecki, a lawyer who was formerly part of Finra’s national arbitration and mediation committee.
The industry’s complaints may already have found a sympathetic ear at the SEC.
Michael Bixby,
president of the Public Investors Advocate Bar Association, who opposes
many of the industry’s proposed changes, said the Stifel award came up
during a meeting with the regulator.
“Isn’t that number kind of big?” Bixby recalled being asked by an official at the SEC.
A spokesman for the SEC said the agency “would not comment on a private meeting.”
As
for Bodner’s case—essentially, an employment dispute—banks are hoping
to change the rules there, too. Finra’s rules require banks to explain
the reason for employee departures on their employment records, a
portion of which is usually public. JPMorgan says that requirement
allowed Bodner to claim defamation and wrongful termination, which the
company denies.
Arbitrators allowed Bodner to classify his leaving JPMorgan as voluntary. The bank is looking to reverse that.
An
industry group, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets
Association, recommended that new rules give firms “qualified immunity”
against employee challenges to how their departures are described on
their employment record.
As for Bodner, the former JPMorgan adviser’s lawyer isn’t happy with some of Finra’s rules either.
Marc Rosen
criticized Finra rules for requiring employees to enter into
arbitration over matters that don’t involve securities, and for allowing
banks to assume former employees’ clients while hashing out employment
disputes.
“Pretextual
terminations that tarnish careers of honest employees is never
permissible,” he said in a statement, adding that he is looking forward
to defending against the bank’s suit. “The Arbitrators saw and heard all
of the evidence.”
