Trump's Other WH Press Secretary

 5/6/2026

 

Trump loves to be on television. One of his favorite venues is Maria Bartiromo's Fox Business show pre market open. This morning for the second time, he virtually announced an end to the Iran war. Last time, oil dropped $10, it did so again this morning. Really, is the oil market that naive? Hormuz is still mined and Iran has never made a deal with anyone, still the DOW jumped  500 points.

The Resilient Stock Market

 5/5/2026

SOX rose 4.2% today. Transports bounced off its 50 day moving average. 

 From the March low one can make a case that TRAN has just corrected and is still in an uptrend. 

SPX

the equity charts pretty much all, TRAN excepted, look like this, over bought but still in an uptrend

 Secy State delivered a press conference this afternoon and looked like a Secy of State should, unlike Trump he does not ramble or talk about himself. He made the case that Iran is at war by layng mines in an international waterway. Yes Iran has high inflation and near wrothless currency but so did Argentina for a decade.  Hard to see how this ends without more fighting. 

For now trends are up but extrenekt overbought.  

There's More, Backlash over Bezos Sponsor of Met Gala

 5/4/2026

It Gets Worse, after the Yacht, Now the Met 

 

I am not sure which photo  will be the signature photo of top of the markets, Lauren above or the $400 M house for sale in CA, but this is  a nominee

the flappers of hte 1920s, the mini skirts of the 1960s, and well .here we are now, after renting the city of Venice for their wedding, now on to the Met Gala 

 

Bezos Selling $500 M Super Yacht, too much Attention

 5/4/2026

Market manias result in over the top projects of all  kinds. Typically te projects are planned during the mania, only to find a lack of interest in the ensuing decline. Examples of the 1930s

Empire State Building

Duesenberg  Auburn Cord car company which folded in the late 1930s

Now Bezos has had enough of the $22 M annual upkeep 

and the look at the excess of this guy attention it has brought

trust me this is a socionomic clue to a top in the markets

see the last post 

All Equity Markets Close Down

 5/4/2026

 the DOW openned down this morning and closed lower. The NDXand SPX were up but also closed down today.  Above all major equity index closed lower.  The DOW made its high February 10. That was teh pattern at the March 2000 high when the NDX and SPX topped that March 2.5 months after the DOW.

Transports Lead Any Move 

 Notice a  4.82% decline just today, and that after near continuous decline for near two weeks. 

SOX Has yet to Reverse

 the pattern of SOX  parallels that of TRAN above. 

The GP of Hungary is $482 billion. Poland  is $2.1 Trillion. Mexico is $3.5 Trillion. Canada is $2.9 Trillion.

Now consider the market cap of

NVDA 4.9 T

Alphabet Google, about to pass NVDA 4.9T

Apple 4.1T

Meta 1.5 T

MSFT  3 T

Does that make any sense, that these companies are worth more than the four countries cited above?

Think about it, Meta is a giant scrapbook company, sure it sells lots of ads but really.

Another key indicator will be the junk bond market, which looks very toppy.

UPS dropped 10% today. FED Ex down 9%.  Ryder down 6%.  C H Robinson down 9%. 

the thirty year bond yield has risen to 5.02%, the previosu high is 5.179% OCt 23, 2023. No matter who Donald appoints to the FED rates are rising. 

Crude oil rose to 106.42, up $5. A thirty dollar buy of 87 octane today only got me eight gallons. Donald is in serious trouble for the mid-terms.  His tariffs slow markets world wide. 

UK Exports to US drop 25%, now wodner King Charles was here.  

 We are close to my patience waiting for a top to be rewarded. 

 

 

Gary Shilling Sees Recession and Stock Correction

 5/2/2026

Shilling Sees a 20-30% Correction 

UAE Exits OPEC

 5/1/2026

UAE Exits OPEC

 

The United Arab Emirates UAE will withdraw its membership from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC. Iran’s unprovoked attacks on the UAE have finally driven the decision. The decision includes embracing Israel military capability as well as preserving its own wealth through oil production.

The population is eleven million but only about 11% are native to the country.   The rest are immigrants who works and live there. UAE features the modern cities of Abu Dhai and Dubai. Dubai includes the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa. The Dubai Financail Centre is one of the world’s largest financial centers. The airport experienced 92 million passengers in 2024, ten times that of San Antonio.  Luxury real estate and lifestyles are features of the country. All that has been threatened by the 2,800 drones and missiles from Iran.

The war with Iran has forced UAE to take a much more aggressive stand than most of its neighbors.  The UAE finds itself apart from OPEC in this regard.

The UAE has adopted Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. This is vital to preserve the claims of a safe lifestyle in the country.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE feature competing leaders. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MBS and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, MBZ, are now rivals moving their respective countries to modern states.

The war has constrained UAE’s oil production. OPEC has never had a real enforcement mechanism to heal members to its quotas Leaving OPEC lets the UAE work on pipelines to route around the Hormuz Strait and boost its oil production.

UAE’s 68,000 active military are well trained.  Unlike many Arab countries the UAE is not afraid to use the military power it has purchased from the West.

Before he was a US Senator, Phil Gramm taught economics at A & M College Station.  Gramm notes that the $188 billion in reduced taxes, the Big Beautiful Bill, is offset by the cost of $195 Billion in tariffs collected. Despite administration claims, tariffs are a tax paid by Americans. After the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s unilateral move to tariff near everything, he doubles down on finding new ways to do so. Look for more tariff pain in 2026.

Capital spending on Artificial Intelligence by Big Tech runs to many billions. This has rescued the stock market from the woes of high oil prices back in the 1970s. That and a newfound energy independence thanks to the Permian Basin.

The DOW, knocking on 50,000 this Friday morning, looks to make a new high this next week, over 50,512. That will call for a new re-think of the DOW Theory, suggesting higher prices in equity markets.