Arnold on Giving It 100%

 11/3/2025

 

Despite what he says Arnold blew it on the family thing but on pumping iron, movie star, and Governor he got it right. He is correct, this is how I passed the CPA exam, first time, back than first time pass rate, 10%. And that may be high, I have read as low as 3%. But back then stat gathering was not what it is today.     Arnold’s Corner Monday Motivation

This week, the discussion inside the Pump Club app was all about finding your 100 percent.

It was one of my favorite topics ever because I believe most people go through life without ever finding out what they’re really capable of. And I don’t just mean in the gym. I mean everywhere.

When I was on FaceTime with Ketch after the app’s Zoom meeting, I could see how fired up he was. That’s what happens when you start talking about going all out. You feel alive.

Because somewhere deep inside, we all know we have more in the tank.

I think every single person is capable of greatness at something. It could be teaching, building a business, training, parenting, writing, anything.

But too many people realize that giving less than 100% is comfortable, and they settle there.

They never find out what it feels like to give everything.

When I say “wenn schon, denn schon,” or “leave no stone unturned,” it all means the same thing: if you’re going to do something, give it your whole heart. There are no half-measures.

So many people divide themselves up into percentages.

I see it everywhere.

At breakfast, someone gives 40% of their attention to the person across the table and 60% to their phone.

At the gym, they give 50% to the set and 50% to checking email.

In life, it seems like most people are giving 20% of themselves to some social media app or another on a daily basis.

They think they’re being efficient, but really, they’re just getting C’s and D’s in a lot of things instead of an A in one thing at a time.

Forget the percentage. The only percentage I ever want to think about is 100 percent. This doesn’t mean you can’t lead a balanced life. You can. The balance is that whatever you are doing, you are doing 100 percent.

When you train, train.

When you work, work.

When you’re with your family, be with your family.

It’s not about doing just one thing. It’s about doing what you’re doing with your full effort.

I’ve learned this my whole life, from bodybuilding to acting to politics. You can’t fake 100 percent. People can feel it.

Causality is Not Always What You Think

 11/3/2025 10:21 

Cullen Frost bank CFR had net income of $172.7 million for the third quarter.  That is a nice jump form the second quarter when the bank made only $144 million. This result outpaced the expectations of analysts!  So the stock price must be going up, right! Uh not so fast. The report linked above was released Oct 30, the red arrow on the charts highlights the date. The  stock rose to the 200 bar moving average, 30 minute chart, and has fallen since.

 Welcome to the Socionomic Theory of Finance. Causality is not always what onethinks.  Why did the stock fall in light of such great news. The answer is that despite what finance theory states, markets  move on social mod. CFR has had a great run, but the short term trend is down. Since Oct 16 the 200 bar MA has contained all the rise in the stock price. Mood is changing towards CFR.

In the forthcoming bear market, do not believe that just because your company's stock  is making money, it cannot go down. No doubt CFR shareholders are scratching their heads. 

Fidelity - Five Major Stock Market Risks, A Look Back as Sure Fire Deals

 11/2/2025

Five Major Risks 

Here is a great quote from the article.

 Yet portfolio managers like Chris Lin, manager of the Fidelity^® OTC Portfolio (

     I think there’s good reason why many companies are betting on AI-related projects. “All of these companies wouldn’t be investing this much capital if they didn’t think their investments would be worth it,” Lin notes.

______________________

Well sometimes that works and other times, well,  not quite so much ....

Time Warner buys AOL, worst merger in history

Fed Ex buys Kinkos, writes off $891 M pre-tax

UPS does it for far less money 

Mercedes buys Chrysler, later gives it away to Cerebus hedge fund

Everyone buys a dot.com, from March 2000 NASD loses 75% of value in two years, dot.com meltdown

HP buys Compaq for $25 B, failure of the merger

HP buys Autonomy for $100 B,  timeline of the merger disaster

North Carolina hires Belichick  - how is that working out?

Lehman issues commercial paper to leverage 10x sub prime mortgages, 175 yr old firm vanishes overhight

Charlie Javice swindles Chase out of $175 M 

Then Charlie bilks Chase for $115M for legal fees! 

 

Sure there are lots of examples of successful buys but I suspect most reflect the hubris of the buying CEO rather than a great deal 

Consumer Confidence Drops

 11/2/2025

Another puzzle piece  suggesting a market top.  In just five years confidence has nearly been cut in half. Remarkable in that the stock market has soared to new highs. Confidence today is no better than during teh pandemic, a remarkable statistic. 
 

NVDA CEO is a Rock Star & Horror Rocks!

 11/1/2025

Here is a video of the NVDA CEO signing a reporter's jacket .

This sort of stuff is usually reserved for music or movie stars, but a geeky chip make, ok a $5T geeky chip maker.  Point being this is a sign of ebullient, reaching for the stars, literally,  mood. The kind you see at market tops. 

There is always a mix of mood. At the same time we have two very big horror movies premiering.

 Sinners Trailer

 Frankenstein Trailer 

 

One of these might be nominated for an Oscar Best Movie category, if so it will be the first time a horror film would be nominated. Movie goers like fright in hard times.  Modern horror movies were born in the Depressioin with Frankenstein, Dracula, and Werewolf.  Exorcist was billed a s the most terrifying movie ever in 1973 and horror fans loved it.  Here we go again. 

Jerome-Zero Job Creation

 11/1/2025

FED Chair notes below the surface, job creation is zilch 

The economic slow down is underway. 

A Tale of Two Indexes

 11/1/2025

Stocks 

In my newspaper column posted Friday morning, i mentioned the difference in the weighted versus the unweighted indexexes. They are two different stories. Here is the short term picture.

This is the weighted SPX where the Magnificent Seven comprise over one third of the value. 

 Here is the equal weight SPX where all stocks carry the same value. 

The Sell-off in SPXEW is much more pronounced 

The rally will last as long as the love affair with those seven high tech stocks lasts. And then this will look a lot more like March 2000, the peak of the dot,com mania. Then the NASD lost 75% of its value in the next two years. 

Here is another clue, the SPX Advance Decline peaked this summer and has declined since.

the A/D line for SPX and NYSE tends to be the overall best indicator of market direction. 

 

Interest in technology precedes a top n the markets. The tech was radio in 1929, computers in 1966, dot,com in and internet 2000, and low tech housng in 2007. This time it will be AI with Apple at $4T and NVDA at $5T.  In 1999 Time Warner bought AOL, an internet engine. It was deemed a brilliant move. When Time Warner wrote the whole thing off, not so much. AOL had nothing unique as it tuned out. The big investments in AI have yet to make the investors much money, here we go again. 

Interest Rates

Ten Year Note Yields - these track mortgage rates or the other way around. Mortgages hit a low this week but Note yields rose the very day of the FED cut, Wednesday, note the red arrow.

 If I had drawn a trend-line along the descending tops, yields are just about to break out. 

I noted the increase in auto repos.  The WSJ article detailed a woman adding water to her dish washing liquid and clorox. These are signs of a deteriorating economy.  Trump's tariff  madness as Jason Riley puts it, has raised consumer prices despite what Lutnick and Navarro claim.

Silver

It is rebounding from the first sell off, ths should end this week. The move lower to $40 will resume at that point.  I will look to add more ZSL a short sivler fund at that point.

Energy

Crude oil pulled back to fill the gap from its launch off the 10/21 low. 

 

Apache APA is more sensitive to the changes in oil price than giants like Exxon Chevron. 

Notice how the APA chart tracks the WTIC chart above. APA is one third the price of the oil ETF USO, so this is a better buy I think.

 I hope readers are enjoying our new blogspot platform, It is working far better thanTypepad.

dennis.elam@att.net