12/15/2025
I have maintained that the overall market will only hold up until the MAG 7 and AI stocks top. That has now happened December 10. Here is the AIQ, its holdings include
Not the MAG 7 but a fine group of high tech stocks.
December 10 coincides with Time Magazine Person of the Year ,the AI mavens perched on an I beam a photo play of the famous 1932 photo. This was staged to promote NY real estate during the Depression
Point being, when financial news makes general magazine covers either the bear or bull is done, in this case the AI craze peaked Dec 10.
The NASD 100 or NDX also peaked Dec 10. All the markets should begin to fall apart. See the investing column in today's WSJ. It compares the dot.com and sub prime peaks with the current AI mania.
Bond Market
TBF a bear bond fund
TBF has broken out with enough conviction to take a serious position. I expect 10 year yields to pass the previous high at 5%. Yes the caily PMO is peaking so let's enter ladder of orders below the current market.
Ten year bonds have a head and shoulders pattern a left and right shoulder with a middle higher head, that pattern ahs been bro kern to the downside. This re enforce the idea that long dated rates are headed higher.
I cannot emphasize how important this is, The ten year yield bottomed March 2020 at .5%. It rose to 5%, corrected to 3.9% and now is rising again. This market has a habit of not looking back once rates rise. The ten year yield bottomed after 39 years of decline. Brace yourself for 39 years from 2020 of increasing rates.
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