12/6/2025
We have divergences in stocks and bonds.
The divergence in stocks is that teh SPX cap weighted index makes new highs. But the number of SPX stocks over their 50 day moving averages has been falling for months. It has had a clip up on the recent rally but still diverges from the new highs.
The bullish percent of stocks, main panel, is only back to its August level, when the SPX was lower than it is now. This is what I mean by divergence.
At the November low the NASD 50 day bullish percent was a mere 25%, yet the NDX was still climbing higher. This is nuts.
In the bond market 3 month rates, main [anel, have fallen to new lows. But the ten year T Note the rate at top is rising. The market sees more Tricolor and First Brand bankruptcies as well as shaky government city and state balance sheets.
Copper is always a great economic indicator. The ratio chart of copper to gold shows copper under performing gold. Investors are preferring gold, real money, to copper, the real economy. This shows a weakening economy. There is no blip up in this chart.
No comments:
Post a Comment